CONTEST: First Member to Forecast a M7.5 Earthquake Wins $250 (or MORE)
Who Can Win:
1) First prize is open to those who have a Monthly, 2-Year or Lifetime Membership at QuakeWatch.net at the time of posting their forecast. Anyone, Member or Free User, can win the consolation prizes.
What Is Required of a Winning Forecast:
2) Member must follow the forum GUIDELINES for posting a forecast in the Make A Forecast section.
3) The magnitude range of the forecast must include M7.5 or higher, and must not go below M6.5.
Magnitude Range Examples: (M6.5 – M7.5 : OK!) (M6.4 – M8.0 : Not OK, minimum range failure) (M7+ : OK!) (M6+ : Not OK, minimum range failure) (M7.1 – M7.4 : Not OK, threshold magnitude failure)
4) Alerted area must cover less than 20% of the ring of fire, and less than 20% of the other major faults between 70 degrees N latitude and 70 degrees S latitude.
For examples, see the contest video posted on this page.
5) Timeline of the forecast must be 7 days or less.
a. After 7 days of being on alert, an area cannot be placed back on alert for 7 more days.
b. Epicenter of M7.5+ earthquake cannot have been on alert for more than 50% of the preceding 20 day period.
Any earthquake that is listed at M7.5 or higher 24 hours after it occurs, as listed by either the USGS, or which has at least four (4) readings of M7.5 or higher on the full EMSC contributions list 24 hours after it occurs (http://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/seismologist.php).
Once a M7.5+ Earthquake Happens:
If you have forecasted the event and fit the criteria above, then follow the forum GUIDELINES for posting the forecast in Members Success Proclamations forum. We will be looking there after the earthquake to see if there are any winners!
First – Smallest alert area; Second – Shortest alert window (timeline); Third – Who posted first?
First Prize: Winner of the contest receives (1) at least $250* and (2) either a 2-Year Membership to QuakeWatch.net, or and a One-Year Membership to Suspicious0bservers.org, and (3) recognition in the following Quarterly Update. *Every month without a M7.5+ event raises First Prize by $50, and every M7.5+ event that has no winner will increase the First Prize by $100.
Consolation Prizes: Any Member who successfully meets the outlined criteria for forecasting an M7.5+ event, but who loses a tiebreaker, will receive (1) either a 2-Year Membership to QuakeWatch.net, or a One-Year Membership to Suspicious0bservers.org, and (2) recognition in the following Quarterly Update.
Method of Receiving Monetary Award:
Winner can choose to receive their monetary award via Paypal or check.
Disagreements, Issues and Rulings:
All disputes and unforeseen circumstances shall be handled on a case-by-case basis, with valid rulings allowed by website keymasters, administrators, or moderators.
Happy Forecasting and Good Luck!
-Space Weather News LLC & 9Rese’ LLC