• 115 pts
    lester
    December 2, 2017 at 7:15 pm #3353

    Hi Ben,

    On 16th November, I formulated a forecast for New Britain Region P.N.G. on co-ordinates 149.790’E – 6.480’S, which locates you on the sea ridge South of Amge Island. When the 6.0 occurred in Eastern New Guinea, my measured distance from forecast co-ordinates to quake epicentre calculated as 244 km’s. I used a 250 km margin and realised it was just within my bounds. It was only when I came to submit in Successful proclamations that I realised I had not included said co-ordinates on my official forecast.

    Personally, I was happy to waver this (being a mistake and all), but my well meaning partner in crime has me here under duress 🙂 for you to review if I have a legitimate call on this… he is true testament to the meaning “buddies across the pond”

    What ever you decide is fine by me…

    Score: 0
    Ben Davidson "S0"
    29 pts
    Ben Davidson "S0"
    December 3, 2017 at 11:42 am #3360

    That one looks good. Having difficultly figuring out which areas of earth were also on alert (need to do your statistical significance).

    Can you help me on that one?

    Score: 0
    115 pts
    lester
    December 3, 2017 at 3:05 pm #3362

    Hi Ben

    I thank you for responding, but I feel as I originally did that new events are occurring, and this is becoming old news. I give appreciable thanks to my friend Counselor Gimber (Chris) for encouraging me in this endeavour… but I will accept my miss result and learn from my mistakes.

    However, I would like to suggest you analyse Counselor Gimber’s Ecuador forecast of November 19 10:51 pm. It “very recently” expired, but he changed location from Quito to Quayaquil by analysing the data correctly. We had recently been discussing potential for an event occurring in Ecuador or Haiti… I made a strong case for Haiti, and feel I may have unduly affected his decision to maintain his forecast. You know my views on protocol, but I have also been told that certain circumstances can apply if sufficient data fits the picture. I normally use a 20 day forecast period… so in my book, he got this one!

    Thank you

    This post has received 1 vote up.
    Score: 1
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