EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION CENTER
Recent breakthroughs in understanding seismic patterns and the global electric circuit have enabled earthquake forecasting as a relevant endeavor. This page contains the various tools used to create earthquake forecasts of the most active fault areas.
Earthquake Forecasting & Prediction
Blot-Echo WindMap – by 9Rese’
Blot-Echo WindMap – by 9Rese’
The first tool below is designed to combine the most basic subterranean and atmospheric signals. This map shows the location of deep earthquakes that qualify as Blot echoes (M4+ and >80km deep); the colored areas denote the location of deep earthquakes along subduction areas. Multiple events expand the ‘red-zone’ and colors fade over 72 hours. A pressure-colored wind-map for location of pressure cells is included as well. Wind-map Pressure Legend: red/white = high pressure, blue = low pressure. There are multiple map options and zoom capability.
Chart below shows M4+ events in last 72 hours. M6+ events are red, Blot echoes are blue. Most crustal events reduce the potential shaking of future earthquakes in the crust, so this chart should be used to reduce watch areas on the map above when you see crustal events subsequent to the occurrence of the Blot echoes.
The sunspot plot (below) shows the sunspot number for the previous month + a few days of expected numbers. During long-term (monthly/seasonal) peaks and troughs, and sharp changes in sunspot number (15-20/day), there is much more energetic exchange between the earth, geo-space, and the heliosphere/solar wind. Much of this effect involves solar flares, solar wind streams and other space weather phenomena, but also includes galactic cosmic rays during periods of low solar activity.
For all the tools needed to do your Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) analyses in thermal-flow forecasting, use this link.
The 48hr SDO/AIA 211 solar video (below) shows coronal holes (CHs), the primary earthquake factor. We are looking for the dark patches, which indicate that the interplanetary magnetic fields connecting earth to sun may be about to experience significant fluctuations of energy. Learn more about why coronal holes are important earthquake factors here and in Davidson, 2015.
The Kp index (below) shows the level of geomagnetic activity resulting from space weather. The occurrence of geomagnetic storms (Kp>4) appears to have a depressive effect on earthquakes during the peak of the storms. The primary risk window begins when a mid/low latitude coronal hole reaches the earth-facing 1/4th of heliographic longitudes, and ends when geomagnetic storms occur, or when the coronal hole leaves the earth-facing half of the sun.
The Earthquake Prediction Center at QuakeWatch.net is the home of the study of pre-seismic signals, and the practice of earthquake forecasting. The Earthquake Prediction Center at QuakeWatch.net is a division of SpaceWeatherNews and is supported by the collective of nearly 300,000 “Suspicious0bservers”. The model was formulated by performing a thorough survey and review of the available literature on pre-seismic signals like foreshock patterns, ground ion changes, atmospheric and electromagnetic factors, and the most robust and reliably-available factors were chosen to combine into a real-world-practice model that seeks to use these factors to actively reduce the global active fault area by 80 to 90%, finding the 10 to 20% of of earth most at-risk of a large and significant earthquake at that time (usually M6+). The model has been successfully predicting the location of these large earthquakes, within that 10 to 20%, approximately 80% of the time.