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15 ptsCanyonratJanuary 23, 2021 at 9:52 pm #10145
Hey all, I am back. It took a sew days of being unmotivated “depressed” after our United States Capital Bldg was stormed, to get back into forecasting. In my opinion there is blame in all directions. I am glad Pres. Trump is gone. I still see massive evidence of voting irregularities from observed facts, affidavits, and video imaging.
I had hope the Horned Helmet insurgent along with with his fellow insurgent wearing the Fir Cod Piece would be enough to take control of our government…LOL LOL…
I feel better after saying this.
So on on to quakes!!!
Observed:
M 4.4 – 80km W of Petrolia, CA 2021-01-17 06:25:18 (UTC) 40.381°N 125.231°W 14.7 km depth
M 4.2 – 4km SE of Aromas, CA 2021-01-17 04:01:27 (UTC) 36.867°N 121.611°W 8.3 km depth
M 4.0 – 13km SW of Olancha, CA 2021-01-17 02:49:08 (UTC) 36.188°N 118.094°W 1.1 km depth
M 3.5 – 25 km S of Mina, Nevada 2021-01-18 05:00:53 (UTC) 38.166°N 118.070°W 7.7 km depth
Forecast: M 4.5 to M 5.5 Benicia, CA 2021-01-23 to 2021-02-02 center point 38° 1’59.57″N 122° 8’38.17″W radius 100mls/160kms, not deeper the 70 km
Thoughts: Because of the general increase in frequency and strength of planetary seismic events, I changed my thinking and increased the magnitude strength from 3.5 to 4.5 to the 4.5 to 5.5. I use EQ3D and follow Dutchsinse’s methodology which I call Observational Forecasting. Also, as part of my ongoing hypothesis that quake activity from this region south of Japan (Roughly from 30°28’57.04″N 139°43’7.37″E to 21°33’51.52″N 142°43’59.02″E in a big oval shape) that strike deeper then 150km, will sometimes roll under the pacific plate, and sometime follow the Mendocino Ridge and south of it the Pioneer Ridge formations and roll under the San Andreas (which in my opinion is charged with seismic energy from Alaska) strike the North American Plate as it thickens and goes deeper into the Earth. So quakes often strike from the Sierra Mountain Range to the West Side of the Rocky Mountain Range. This proved true in 2020 from early March to late June with around 15 quakes from 4.9 to 6.8 all east of California. All after a large series of deep 150km+ M4.0+ quakes struck in this above region south of Japan.
Significant Quake: M 4.4 – BONIN ISLANDS 2021-1-11 04:50:35 (UTC) 28.0115 139.3855 519.1 km depth
EVENT TIMESTAMP # 1610340635 source: IRISThis post has received 1 vote up.Score: 1115 ptslesterJanuary 24, 2021 at 12:00 am #10155In my opinion as a Brit on the other side of the pond, and speaking the thoughts of many Brits within my local community. Mr Trump gave us the impression of a bull in a China shop, when he first took office in 2017. But gradually we realised that he was not a politician in the true sense of the word, and he was actually bringing his many decades of business experience to bear on the US economy. I cannot comment on how this affected Daily lives in the US, but we were happy over here because he was buddies with out prime minister Boris Johnston. Good news for trade relations, exchanging commerce, security, and our big brother would continue to be there for us, if needed in a time of crisis. However, Mr Trump did have many faults and strange ideas that did not relate too well with many world leaders. But for all his so called faults, I believe the world will become less safe without him at the helm. Despite all that is stated here, his most enduring feature was “unpredictability”, and other less friendly nations were unable to determine what his next move would be. He had no qualms about having thousands of guys sunbathing on the decks of the seventh fleet, in the sea of Japan. Whilst somebody was threatening to send a Korean firework to Guam. It is this kind of bluffing and unpredictability that the US is going to miss. President Biden in my opinion is the right man for the job, to fight this current pandemic that is crippling all our economies. But by the time this is over, Iran will have produced its “metal Uranium”, and North Korea will have its nuclear submarine. I question the decades of work proposed to be essential toward saving our climate… when the “possibility” of nuclear intervention is on the horizon !!
The storming of the Capitol building in Washington, was not only a shameful event for Americans, but also for all “democratic” countries. Instances like this have occurred in our countries on many occasions throughout history… and this is a case of what is done is done, and people should move on.
Speaking of crazy enthusiastic yanks with strange ideas… how are you Mark 🙂
This is a well thought out analysis,and I am glad to see that your MIA period has not diminished your enthusiasm (sincerely !). I agree that we are on the right track for activity in the San Francisco Bay Area. I am gauging my magnitude estimate from observational experience, and believe the correlations indicate a 4+ event is a possibility. But I also believe such an event will not exceed the 4’s range, because previous “Notable” events in this region, have been proceeded by significant aspect changes in the ACE satellite data… and I have not observed any thus far. However, this belief could be contradicted by the fact that double correlations occurred with San Francisco from one location in the Easter Papua region… an unusual pattern that I have rarely seen. It may also be reason enough to take into account that there have been six volcanic eruptions today (23rd)… and its not over yet. This may hold significance as the last time this figure was exceeded, was on 29th November 2020, with a total of eight eruptions. On 30th November, an M 6.4 event occurred in the Tatar Strait, Russia at 22:54:34 UTC… and an M 6.3 event occurred in Salta, Argentina at 22:54:58 UTC. The magnitudes were not “overly” significant, but one occurred in a very seismically infrequent region, and the timing in both cases was very anomalous !
Score: 0115 ptslesterJanuary 24, 2021 at 12:15 am #10166As a follow up… just submitted this post, gone back to quake listings… an noted an M 7.0 event has occurred in the South Shetland Islands. Do you want to try a post seismic analysis on this event ?
It is difficult to determine pre seismic analysis when two competing theories are focused in the same region… kind of like a Gray area in prediction. But it may be interesting to explore if post seismic analysis from said theories uncovers something beneficial, that we can use with future attempts !
Score: 015 ptsCanyonratJanuary 24, 2021 at 1:08 am #10167Hello Lester. My first thought on the M7 was it came from or rather the energy rolled from the M 6.4 – 27 km SW of Pocito, Argentina 2021-01-19 02:46:22 (UTC) 31.823°S 68.818°W 20.0 km depth.
The M6.4 came from Magnitude 6.9, -39.34 -74.99 Mon Dec 28 2020 10:39 AM Depth 10km (this is from GEO Net New Zealand).
The 6.9 came from this M5.6 2020-12-14 01:57:10 -23.9355 179.8912 527.4km depth SOUTH OF FIJI ISLANDS IRIS ID# 1607911030 and when you use the depth to magnitude chart you add 1.0 to the magnitude but if memory serves since this is from New Zealand area you might add 1.2 to magnitude. For every 50k depth you add .1 magnitude, but with New Zealand area quakes you add .12 because their quakes have more power.
Dutch has mapped out the direction seismic energy flows around the planet. The energy flows from New Zealand to South America, then it can go up to Mexico and then out through the Caribbean Islands to the Atlantic Ridge and then stops there or it flows south toward the SE, goes under the tip of South America and goes of in several places in the Atlantic and finally stops at or just before the South Sandwich Ridge.
I would expect the Sandwich Island area to experience a 6.2 to 7.2 in the next 48 hours. Likely between the big South Sandwich Island and those 7 small Islands arcing on top of the Sandwich Ridge.
I would also expect to see 5.5 to 6.5 near Valdivia Chili area, but I am less certain about this one then the Sandwich Islands one. Valdivia had that 9.6 back in 1960.
Score: 015 pts115 ptslesterJanuary 24, 2021 at 3:27 am #10169WOW !… an impressive response. I’m going to vote you up on this because you made an effort to determine causality… and you are a good sport 🙂
My analysis will not be as forthcoming as yours though, I believe a theory has to stand up to scrutiny by others. And the only way this can be done is by providing testable evidence… and the tools required for verification. I have formulated a plausible trigger theory, but checking correlation history takes a little longer.
I have been loosing friends and family to the pandemic, and to scared to leave my house. I have been very active on this site, to give distract to myself from grief… it was getting lonely here too, but it is now nice to have someone to talk to 🙂
Score: 0115 ptslesterJanuary 24, 2021 at 8:23 pm #10175Analysis… 23rd January 23:36:50 UTC – M 6.9 South Shetland Islands.
The USGS has posted event location as 55.49’W – 61.82’S (decimal) – 55’29’W – 61’49’S (degrees / minutes)
The EMSC has posted event location as 55.18’W – 61.72’S (decimal) – 55’10’W – 61’43’S (degrees / minutes)There is a longitude difference of 19 minutes of Arc between these postings. This may not sound particularly significant, but at a latitude of 62 degrees South, it can make a difference of 2 minutes in relation to solar / lunar rise and set times. Therefore, this allows for 19 Arc minutes of error in the following calculations.
When the M 6.9 event occurred at 23:36:50 UTC, the sun was located on longitude 171’12’W… the eastern solar longitude range would calculate as 170’57’W ( influence at 15 arc mins).
At 23:36:50 UTC, the moon was located on longitude 51’24’W. Earlier on this day at 11:13:22 UTC, the moon was located on the opposite longitude at 128’36’E, and the sun was located on longitude 14’38’E. The eastern lunar longitude would calculate as 128’51’E ( 15 arc mins), therefore the sun would now be located on 14’53’E… within 6 minutes of Arc from longitude 14’59’E, equating to Solar noon on Mt Etna volcano.
On 23rd January, sunrise occurred on this epicentre at 07:00 UTC with reference to USGS data, or 06:59 UTC in reference to EMSC. At 06:59 UTC, the RLT (moonrise) was located on Mt Sinabung volcano in northern Sumatra.
At 07:03:52 UTC, it was Moonrise on Mt Sinabung volcano, and the moon was located on the “solar range” longitude of 170’57’W.
At 11:37 UTC, it was sunset on Mt Sinabung volcano, and then as stated above at “12-hours” later 23:36:50 UTC, the M 6.9 event occurred in the South Shetland Islands !
Mt Sinabung volcano had erupted earlier on this day at 16:57 UTC… it was sunrise on Mt Kilauea volcano in Hawaii at this time !
You can understand the calculations better if you take the time to contemplate their significance. The math was not real necessary, because I have been posting volcanic correlations for weeks, and achieved positive results. This event was just another example of a seismic location, correlating to a significantly active volcano 12-hours earlier. If you followed this analysis in a T & D map, you are observing the threshold boundaries of solar / lunar light (reflected). But in actual fact, the sun light in the maps is representing the extremities of gravity… and this is why the 12-hour window theory works. We can not see gravity, but shining a bright light on a big ball in space, gives us a good indication of were the light terminates at the limbs… we can then perceive this as the limiting region of gravitational influence from the sun. It is a similar case with the moon, except its gravitational range of influence alters with distance. Shine a flashlight at a white wall from 30ft away, and you get a defined circle of light that is governed by the design of the lens. Step back another 10ft, and the intensity of the light starts to diminish, but it encompasses a greater area. Unlike our flashlight though, gravitational influence does not diminish to the same extent !
I believe that both of our theories are serving a purposes towards understanding the seismic process. And these analyses indicate that your seismic wave theory can be better employed to determine the next pre seismic region, from a preceding chain of events. And my theory employs a more targeted approach, which could be used to determine pre seismic anomalies within the selected SW region !
Score: 015 ptsCanyonratFebruary 1, 2021 at 7:05 am #10214Lester, very sorry to hear of your losses. I call this the Pan-Damn-it. Even here in California, with the highest death rate per capita, we have been fortunate and no one we know has caught this illness or died from this illness.
Hey, if you want, we could do a zoom chat and meet face to face. Jen would have to set it up, she is a step or two ahead of me in this area.
Peace to you my friend.
Score: 015 ptsCanyonratFebruary 1, 2021 at 7:21 am #10215And on to quake stuff. I reviewed my arm-chair forecast for the follow-up to the BIG ONE at the antarctic.
Magnitude Mw 6.9
Region SOUTH SHETLAND ISLANDS
Date time 2021-01-23 23:36:50.6 UTC
Location 61.81 S ; 55.38 W
Depth 10 kmTwo of my three areas came into play:
M 4.4 – 139 km WNW of Ancud, Chile 2021-01-29 00:01:38 (UTC) 41.311°S 75.309°W 10.0 km depth
and
Magnitude mb 5.0
Region SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS REGION
Date time 2021-02-01 05:20:05.2 UTC
Location 59.18 S ; 26.11 W
Depth 125 kmBoth occurred later then 48 hours after the big 6.9.
The 4.4 was 150 miles/240km south west of Valdivia. I was expecting a 5.5 to 6.5. So this was a miss of 2 out of 3 criteria…Magnitude and time.
The 5.0 was a miss on all three criteria. I was looking for a 6.2 to 7.2 48 hour later and a 5.0 came in 1260mls/2032km from my center point and 8 days after the 6.9.
It did strike on the arc of Islands, which is a location I general watch.
But it is always easier ti look back then in front.
Score: 015 ptsCanyonratFebruary 1, 2021 at 7:26 am #10216And I am always up for texting !-707-331-4805
And if we do the zoom thing, it can be on my end for any expenses. But honestly I have no idea how or if any expenses occur. LOL I will ask Jen in the morning. It is 11:20pm our time. And I was an early computer guy, using BBS before internet, LOL. When I was young and it was the late 1980’s I did not see any money in computers or communications. LOL. That and some other lessons in life have opened my eyes and now I see the world more clearly.
Score: 0115 ptslesterFebruary 1, 2021 at 7:57 pm #10217Very gracious offer Mark, and I appreciate you forwarding personal options. But we are both Quake nuts (lol), and are contributing more by posting our thoughts and theories on this site. I have theories and like solving puzzles… it keeps me occupied, and is far more interesting than doing the daily crossword. I was on a real downer last week when I posted my comments, due mostly to the Pan-Damn-It… nice one 🙂
Thanks for the thought buddy…
This post has received 1 vote up.Score: 115 ptsCanyonratFebruary 2, 2021 at 2:21 am #10218I know how the “downer” weeks come and go. My back as been a painful problem. The cure is physical therapy AND gym. Pan-Damn-It has limited PT and stopped gyms. But rest does heal as well, but much more slowly. Over all my pain is down 60-80% from a year ago. This is good. I am getting excited to do physical stuff again. But now I have developed new habits of sitting…LOL The motivational speakers say it takes 3 weeks to develop a new habit. Well I have 52 weeks of developing this new habit…LOL The motorcycle is getting me up and going. But at 54 years of age I need to find another 25ish year old friend that rides and calls me and says, “lets ride!” That will get me to suit up and get out of the chair and go have more fun more often. When my back went out 10 years ago that was the case, but he was 21 years old, and kept crashing, but it was fun. I actually gave him a full race suit and boots, and he crashed in them the next day. These amazing suits do keep you from getting injured (bruises don’t count as injury). But by him hanging out with me for a year motivated him to join the military and go into the Medical Core. So my efforts with him to ride better were not lost. 8+ years later he is still in the Medical Core!
Score: 015 pts -
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