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15 ptsCanyonratJanuary 29, 2021 at 9:02 pm #10193
Observed: 11 quakes 1.9 to 3.3 at the Geysers Geothermal Power Plants.
Largest: M 3.3 – 8km SSW of Kelseyville, CA 2021-01-29 13:00:08 (UTC) 38.919°N 122.881°W 3.9 km depth
Forecast Alert: M 3.8 to 5.2 East of Morgan Hill, CA “NOW: (2021-01-29) to 2021-02-04 center point 37°11’15.39″N 121°19’44.52″W with a 100mls/160kms radius, less then 70km depth.
Thoughts: I will only count this as a forecast success for activity of 4.2 to 5.2. My forecast strength drops to 3.8 because I see multiple quakes occurring in multiple locations. The activity started with an offshore 4.6 on 2021-01-27 and it then progressed on shore and has been moving south.
Score: 015 ptsCanyonratJanuary 29, 2021 at 9:35 pm #10194Additions to my thoughts:
I will only count this as a forecast success for activity of 4.2 to 5.2. My forecast strength drops to 3.8 because I see multiple quakes occurring in multiple locations. The activity started with an offshore on the Juan de Fuca M 4.6 on 2021-01-27 and it then progressed on shore and has been moving south at a speed of one quake per day. We also had a 4.4 strike off shore but that was only reported by the Pacific NW Seismic Network on Jan 17, 2021. They also have been showing an increase in the number of tremors on their tremor map. Yesterday was the highest in two weeks with a count of 478. I normally start to get concerned at 500+. But the general amount of quakes have been increasing.
Score: 015 ptsCanyonratJanuary 30, 2021 at 10:01 pm #10202Update:
New update from yesterday’s reading from the Pacific NW Seismic Network. Tremors had a big jump in numbers, but more eye opening in location concentration. The south tip of Vancouver Island saw about 657 tremors! Total for that day was 662. This falls into my “concerned watch” category, but I did expect this from the general trend.
Score: 015 ptsCanyonratJanuary 31, 2021 at 2:35 am #10203Update:
In the last few hours we had four quakes strike along the infamous Hayward / Rogers Creek Fault North Bay area and a bit further north. (2.0, 2.1, 2.3, 2.5, from north to south heading to the Bay Area Proper. What is notable about these tiny tiny quakes is that the USGS does not like to play with us forecasters. LOL! So when we show up to play (publicly), they grab their proverbial “beach ball” aka (moment tensor graph), and walk away. So only the Europeans are reporting these four quakes in Northern California. My thoughts are in 12 hours we will see larger then 2.5 along the Hayward Fault in the East Bay. Early Sunday morning our California Time. This could be in the upper 3.0’s that is part of my forcast.
Score: 0115 pts15 ptsCanyonratFebruary 1, 2021 at 1:13 am #10209The entire west coast has gone quiet with only 7 quakes M 2.5+, and just one at M 3.3n the last 24 hours. The tremor map jumped to 715 tremors yesterday 2020-01-30. I watched Dutchsinse’s video report and he too expressed concern in the drop off of frequency and strength. He expressed concerns of M 4.0+ near Yellow Stone and Salt Lake areas. I am more concerned with a whip effect as he spoke of, but to the Bay Area. The M 3.3 occurred along a zone I call the ripples. If this were the summer time I would look south for spontaneous fires to brake out near East side of Napa County. But with this M3.3 and the M2.0s all heading to combine at the Roger Creek Fault I will look for the M3.8 to M4.1 to strike near Mount Diablo; this will not be a forecast success but rather be used as a marker to pinpoint the following M 4.2 to M 5.2. Be safe Bay Area.
So the frustrating thing is, what does this drop off mean? And if it means something, is this meaning consistent over time?
I see the drop as an indicator that a larger quake will release the pressure. But another thought or idea is that the drop off means the energy was absorbed into the American plate and we are done.
So we wait and observe.
Score: 015 pts115 ptslesterFebruary 1, 2021 at 2:19 am #10212If I am reading the PNSN data correctly for 31st January. It is showing 490 epicentres up to 23:25 UTC. I checked an hour ago and there was no posted data… perhaps they were late uploading the days events !
We use different methods, so I am assuming this is the cause of your concern ?
Score: 015 ptsCanyonratFebruary 2, 2021 at 2:32 am #10219Yes, they post the prior days data 6 to 12 hour later. I think they are a bunch of University Geology Students doing the work. So I was a University Student, and would occasionally show up to class stoned and or having a few beers in my belly. Now that said, I was surfing, so marijuana was part of the “scene”. LOL. And if I had a late afternoon class and surf was awesome we would go and eat a GIANT burrito and wash it down with a couple of beers afterwards and then I would go to class. I will admit that learning to smoke marijuana at 6am on the coast really ruined it for night time parties. I just could not smoke at night. Much like trying to have a glass of Cabernet at 6am, it just wont happen.
Score: 015 ptsCanyonratFebruary 2, 2021 at 3:20 am #10220Now onto quakes.
I do have some pride in getting close earth quakes to my center points.
This is my 4th that is with in a few miles of my center point. Center point is ten miles east of the San Andreas Fault and in an area that is not know for quakes. I chose this location because it sits between two ends of faults (likely just not yet mapped). Historically there are zero quakes in this location. Also it is the high point of a range that runs east west while all others run north south (these are “thereabouts descriptions”). Also two man made reservoirs and some “small pit mines?” all with in a few thousand feet.
I only say this for future historical review. It might be helpful…who knows…
So my center point is located at 37°11’15.39″N 121°19’44.52″W
The observed quake located at 37.192°N 121.299°W
Distance 1.7 miles from my center point. But FAR below my magnitude range of 4.2 to 5.2. But also within my very short time window.
Observed: M 2.5 – 28km WSW of Gustine, CA 2021-02-01 19:04:50 (UTC) 37.192°N 121.299°W 1.9 km depth
Thoughts: I will likely add some time to my small window as ALL OF THE QUAKES IN N. AMERICA have dropped off to 99.9% below M 2.9. Again, I sit and wait and observe.
Score: 0115 ptslesterFebruary 2, 2021 at 3:50 pm #10221I grew up in a farming community, the closest I and my friends got to getting high, was drinking homemade dandelion wine at the local barn dance. Never got into motor cycles, so I guess my version of “easy rider” was taking a tractor for a spin in the top meadow… 🙂
I was never a role model to anyone, but in recent years I happened upon a talented youngster in Nigeria who produced exquisite art work. I am not really the charitable do gooder type, but decided to fund his time at art college… that is until the Pan-Damn-It shut them all down. So I have now bought him some land, and paid for construction of a building for a chicken farm. He will be selling eggs in about six months, and shouldn’t have a problem selling meat birds because they still practice voodoo in that region 🙂
Quakes… I saw potential for San Francisco when I started my forecast last week. But I have not observed any “relevant” seismic / volcanic correlations with the US West Coast during this last weekly period. I think my next move here will be when I observe something in the ACE data !
Score: 015 ptsCanyonratFebruary 5, 2021 at 9:47 pm #10234Lester, very cool supporting an artist! My mom is…was an artist. Her mind is going now. She did say that the way to make a living at selling art is to sell duplications. So you paint a picture and you will need to sell that for two weeks worth of labor. AND OR sell copies of it for $50USD. People will buy the $50 version rather then the origonal and you can make a living at being an artist.
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