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    Posted in: Make A Forecast  
  • mattboeck
    July 22, 2017 at 3:59 am #2186

    Sunday Morning 5:25 AM local Pacific Standard Time (what is that UTC?)
    Northern California Cascadia Fault zone for Mendocino County, California
    July 23, 2017
    Depth 22 miles
    Official Start: 3 hours prior 2:25 AM
    Alert end: 6 hours after 11:25 Am (same Day)
    Solar Signs: Coronal Hole Stream
    Lunar Sign: New Moon at Moonrise
    Atmospheric Signs: Small transition of high and low pressure off shore Pacific Ocean, South wind 0-5 MPH
    Ocean Signs: Low tide-Building, N.W. Swell 7-9 feet
    Earth Signs: Blot-Echo(s) Guatemala, Central America
    Detractors: Tropical Storm Greg- intensifying, Pacific Ocean
    Confidence level: Medium-Low

    Score: 0
    mattboeck
    July 23, 2017 at 2:48 am #2215

    Updating magnitude to 6.5-7.5 as per the rules (I’m New to this)
    also extending alert up and down coast 75 miles in both directions North and South following the Coastline
    Epicenter of Alert is Mendocino County at the Pacific Ocean,
    Time Is also updated to UTC time which is 7 hours ahead;12:25 PM UTC

    Score: 0
    mattboeck
    July 23, 2017 at 4:06 am #2218

    A minor earthquake occurred at 3:38:02 PM (PDT) on Saturday, July 22, 2017.
    The magnitude 3.0 event occurred 62 km (39 miles) WSW of Ferndale, CA.
    The hypocentral depth is 1 km (0.5 miles).

    NOTES; Bulls-eye on target, timing Early less than 24 hours away from alert target, Magnitude way too small, depth surface.
    Comment: Could be a foreshock, not a significant event although I am happy as an exercise using the knowledge from Ben Davidson. Matched my expectation range of medium to low.

    Score: 0
    mattboeck
    July 30, 2017 at 10:23 am #2317

    Should have made my prediction a week long; LOL

    Magnitude 5.1 – moment magnitude (Mw)
    Time Friday, July 28, 2017 at 5:02:40 PM (PDT)
    Saturday, July 29, 2017 at 0:02:40 (UTC)
    Distance from Ferndale, CA – 81 km (50 miles) WNW (287 degrees)
    Bayview, CA – 84 km (52 miles) W (271 degrees)
    Humboldt Hill, CA – 84 km (52 miles) W (275 degrees)
    Eureka, CA – 86 km (53 miles) W (270 degrees)
    Cutten, CA – 87 km (54 miles) W (271 degrees)

    Coordinates 40 deg. 46.9 min. N (40.782N), 125 deg. 10.8 min. W (125.181W)
    Depth 26.54 km (16.5 miles)

    Score: 0
    mattboeck
    July 30, 2017 at 10:26 am #2318

    Here is the aftershock;

    4.6 – moment magnitude (Mw)
    Time Saturday, July 29, 2017 at 10:08:26 AM (PDT)
    Saturday, July 29, 2017 at 17:08:26 (UTC)
    Distance from Bayview, CA – 102 km (63 miles) WNW (290 degrees)
    Westhaven-Moonstone, CA – 103 km (64 miles) W (272 degrees)
    Eureka, CA – 103 km (64 miles) WNW (288 degrees)
    Humboldt Hill, CA – 103 km (64 miles) WNW (292 degrees)
    McKinleyville, CA – 104 km (65 miles) W (278 degrees)

    Coordinates 41 deg. 4.5 min. N (41.075N), 125 deg. 19.8 min. W (125.330W)
    Depth 24.34 km (15.1 miles)

    Score: 0
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