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  • tekbasse
    tekbasse
    August 30, 2017 at 1:08 am #2763

    Am defining risk area as equation:

    Risk = 11% – ( D / 300km )

    Where D = minimum distance from path of eclipse totality of August 21 2017 (up to 3000km).

    11% is based on a sample of reviewing 9 new moons in proximity to three megaquakes in history.

    Score: 0
    tekbasse
    tekbasse
    August 30, 2017 at 8:59 am #2765

    Am going to add a decreasing risk by 2% per day for each 24 hours after Sept 24 8:30UTC to account for more stable interplanetary medium during solar minimum.

    Score: 0
    tekbasse
    tekbasse
    August 30, 2017 at 5:31 pm #2778

    For clarification, any calculated value of Risk that is less than zero should be interpreted as normal statistical risk.

    Score: 0
    tekbasse
    tekbasse
    September 19, 2017 at 7:01 pm #2891

    Bingo.

    Earthquake:

    M 7.1 – 5km ENE of Raboso, Mexico
    Time: 2017-09-19 18:14:39 (UTC)
    Location : 18.584°N 98.399°W
    info from: https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us2000ar20#executive

    % set r [expr 12742 / 2.]
    Radius of Earth in km: 6371.0

    A crude approximation of distance is to consider only the latitude portion of the distance.
    path of solar eclipse shadow passes through 41deg N at longitude of earthquake center.
    See 1:33 timestamp of video at https://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/4515

    angle degrees = 41 – 18.58 = 22.42 degrees

    angle radians = 2pi /360 * angle_degrees = 0.39130248777777776

    distance = angle (radians) * radius of Earth = 2492 km

    Score: 0
    tekbasse
    tekbasse
    September 19, 2017 at 7:29 pm #2892

    No Bingo.. too early.. event occurred at 2017-09-19 18:14:39 UTC.. too early by circa 15 hours.

    Score: 0
    tekbasse
    tekbasse
    September 19, 2017 at 7:38 pm #2893

    since there is time remaining to clarify risk equation:

    Risk = 11% – ( D / 300km )

    Here is risk equation re-stated in decimal percent so that units are consistent

    11% = 0.11

    risk = 0.11 – ( 0.10 * D / 3000 km ) where D is distance between center of Solar Eclipse shadow and epicenter of earthquake.

    Score: 0
    mattboeck
    September 19, 2017 at 10:01 pm #2894

    Your
    alert area is too big, Mexico is in central America, not north america.

    Score: 0
    tekbasse
    tekbasse
    September 20, 2017 at 12:07 am #2896

    Thank you for posting, Matt.

    The region is defined as within 3000km of the path of center of totality of Solar eclipse August 2017.

    Earthquakes don’t recognize borders.

    Besides, my brothers and sisters in Mexico know that Mexico is in North America. See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_America

    ..at least until the Earth’s poles flip.. then the question can be debated.

    cheers,
    Ben

    Score: 0
    tekbasse
    tekbasse
    January 19, 2018 at 6:22 pm #3653

    Just stumbled on a data point worth sharing.

    Here is a reference of something available now that was in support of the original prediction:

    “During the August solar eclipse, the moon’s shadow created an ionospheric bow wave front that extended about 1,500 kilometers away from the path of totality, similar to the waves created by a ship moving through water. This movie, from a new study in Geophysical Research Letters, shows the time evolution of the ionospheric bow wave front induced by the moon shadow ship of the eclipse on 21 August 2017.” Video at:

    In addition to ionospheric bow wave, ELF pulses penetrate and deposit charge potential into Earth’s mantle. Subsequent lower intensity passes by new moon’s electromagnetic tail interacting with Earth during low Solar activity periods create ELF channels that promote redistribution of charges.

    Channels are already recognized during Solar induced geomagnetic storms. Crustal electric discharges are the mechanism recognized by Suspicious Observers.

    cheers,
    Ben

    Score: 0
    11 pts
    Counselor
    January 22, 2018 at 1:23 am #3671

    This is interesting. Thank you for sharing. 🙂

    Score: 0
    MiaaGlow
    January 23, 2018 at 11:38 am #3685

    BOOM.

    Score: 0
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