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14 ptsTayrance AllenNovember 19, 2017 at 11:28 pm #3192Quake took place at 22:43UTC time on 11/19/17.
Twitter post has alert map only. All alert info is mentioned on quakewatch.net.
— Tayrance Allen (@Twigganomics) November 15, 2017
Score: 0— Tayrance Allen (@Twigganomics) November 15, 2017
29 ptsBen Davidson "S0"November 20, 2017 at 12:03 am #3194Let’s have a group decision on something. The epicenter is tough to call, but NOT the ‘affected area’ which has been the rule of thumb since I started. I say this is a hit for the Vanuatu – New Caledonia red line, and there is about 12-15% of the ring of fire on alert at that level. I lowered the contest threshold from M7.5 to M7, but I did not say anything about RULE #3, which states that your alert range cannot include magnitude below M6.5. Here the alert range of magnitude is clearly below that, but is the restriction UNFAIR given the reduced magnitude?
By vote here within reasonable time [24-72 hours] we will ascertain whether RULE #3 should have been shifted to a minimum range allowed of M6.0, in which case Tayrence wins the contest, or not.
Yes or no? – you may explain why but please post your yes or no at the top of the posting to make it easier on me 🙂
Score: 0115 ptslesterNovember 20, 2017 at 1:27 am #3197Ben
You will have to decide this one without me… I believe in this case, Tayrance should win the contest purely on the basis that you felt the need to pose this question to us. Many here like me, live unspoken lives because of our interest in earthquakes, we are tucked away in lofts or back yard huts… and the only people who really know how we feel about this interest are here on this site. Earlier today, a fellow forecaster was throwing in the towel… I don’t know him from Adam, but I know what he is going through. To myself and others here, he is a quake buddy that needed some assurance, and we gave it because we have a silent bond to each other… especially the originals. I owe Tayrance nothing, but we have parlayed on occasion… I hope to continue parlaying with him in the future, so you will forgive me if decline to vote for or against a minimum magnitude limit. You set the rules, and everybody here has read them and followed them from the start… lower the limit and I think you are going to be out of pocket !!
There are only a few of us here… in effect you are asking colleagues to vote against each other. We are slowly starting to work together in different ways… be a shame to set this all back to how we were in February again !
Score: 0
29 ptsBen Davidson "S0"November 20, 2017 at 2:14 am #3199Lester – that is an excellent point. I certainly meant no opposition to be born of this. I suppose I was concerned that since I didn’t say anything about Rule #3 it could cause confusion, especially since the 6.5 minimum isn’t fair if I reduced the level to M7.
Ok HERE IS THE OFFICIAL WORD.
1) TAYRENCE WINS THE CONTEST, THE POOL, and THE TICKETS to OTF2018.
2) While the winning pool MUST reset back now, along with the M7.5 threshold, I am willing to also offer that same ticket-prize to the conference to the next winner as well!
Heads up… still lots of work to do, especially given the 2018-2023 forecast from this morning’s news.
Score: 0115 ptslesterNovember 20, 2017 at 12:37 pm #3207Hey Tayrance
I am really pleased that Ben decided in your favour… and I apologise for abstaining on this vote. Our association here has been long enough for you to know my decision was not directly aimed at you. I am just old fashioned, and have always tried to stick to the rules. Its like we have been playing football here for nine months abiding by these rules. And just as we have reached the Superbowl where the rules should be followed to the letter, they have an additional clause applied to them (rule of thumb!), and the crowd is asked which team they think should win !. I come from a world of attending seminars and arguing with scientists, so I sometimes have trouble adjusting to the entertainment aspect of this site. On the other side of the coin, I couldn’t think of anybody more worthy of being awarded this achievement (except me of course 🙂 ). I have seen you miss out so many times, and in a friendly way I have always considered you a worthy adversary to our forecasting attempts.
Please forgive my words if they have caused you offence, I posted them at 02:14 am… old age and 02:14 am UK time do not mix very well 🙂
Score: 0115 pts -
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