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14 ptsTayrance AllenMay 14, 2019 at 12:46 am #6013Alert window: 5/13/19 @ 00:45 UTC time until 5/20/19 18:30UTC time:
Highest alert regions:
-Southern Japan: set for potential 6.2 – 9.3
-Russia: 6.0 – 9.0
-Alaska: set for potential 6.2 – 9.2All other red regions:
-Peru: set for potential 6.0 – 8.2
-South Atlantic: 6.0 – 7.5
-Indian Arctic Ridge: set for potential 6.0 – 8.5
-Fiji: 6.0 – 7.4Yellow regions:
-South of Iceland: 4.3 – 5.7
-Papua New Guinea: monitoring for blot echo activity, anticipated smaller rumbles projected to be 4.0 – 6.0 at depths of >80-100km
-Northern Mid Atlantic ridge: 4.0 – 5.9
-Northern California region: 3.7 – 4.7Posts below show maps only. All detailed info is posted here on Quake Watch.net
— Tayrance Allen (@Twigganomics) May 14, 2019
Score: 0— Tayrance Allen (@Twigganomics) May 14, 2019
14 pts
14 pts
29 ptsBen Davidson "S0"May 26, 2019 at 5:04 pm #6036I have good news and I have bad news.
This is definitely a statistical hit. The total region on alert represents ~12% of the ring of fire, and that makes this result significant at a high level. The fact that TA has already nailed the forecasting content twice, this third ‘excess magnitude’ event makes for NO QUESTION ABOUT IT… this guy can predict earthquakes.
Bad news. #3 on the contest page:
Score: 0
“3) The magnitude range of the forecast must include M7.5 or higher, and must not go below M6.5.
Magnitude Range Examples: (M6.5 – M7.5 : OK!) (M6.4 – M8.0 : Not OK, minimum range failure) (M7+ : OK!) (M6+ : Not OK, minimum range failure) (M7.1 – M7.4 : Not OK, threshold magnitude failure)” – The video on that page explains that to win the $ the magnitude range must not be more than 1.0 magnitude.
— The range for Peru was 6.0 – 8.2, which is a magnitude range of 2.2. This is heartbreaking, I feel it, but at least it does not change the fact that TA is a beast at predicting earthquakes.
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