Volcanic Eruption successfully predicted by Lester, December 18 – 19 2019

For nearly three years, I have always tried to stay within the rules and regulations of this site, for submission of forecasts relating to seismic events. But I currently find myself in unchartered territory with respect to volcanic forecasting. There is no guidance within these rules and regulations for what can be acceptable or unacceptable, with regards to successful proclamations related to volcanoes… I therefore submit the following for consideration…

On 7th Dec 2:47 am, I posted a forecast for an eruptive event from Mt Shiveluch volcano in Kamchatka… commencing 03:00 UTC of the same day.

On 8th Dec 12:34 am, I made inclusion of Mt Klyuchevskoy volcano in Kamchatka, to run concurrently with the Mt Shiveluch volcano forecast. I stated in this inclusion that the distance between these volcanoes was less than 1 degree separation (76 km’s – 47 miles), and my model was not adequately refined to distinguish data between said volcanoes. On 12th Dec at 22:00 UTC, Mt Klyuchevskoy erupted… 19 hours after my forecast expired !

On 17th Dec at 12:55 am, I submitted a forecast for Mt Shishaldin volcano and / or Mt Shiveluch. I had strong supportive data suggesting imminent eruption, so I allocated only three days to this forecast. I gave no mention to inclusion of Mt Klyuchevskoy volcano at this time, because I had already made statement to this fact. However, the problem now is that Mt Klyuchevskoy erupted on 18th Dec at 00:50 UTC… and again on 19th Dec 21:00 UTC. So the case is, I am putting these events forward for “consideration”, with respect to my inclusion statement of 8th Dec. My good friend “Counselor” once stated that “we are all here because we are passionate about earthquakes”. We chase down these earthly monsters because it is hoped that one day, the right piece of the puzzle will be captured… and then many people living in earthquake regions will be able to sleep easier. If you get too involved in this chase (like I have !), you become emotionally attached to the sequence of events following a significant seismic event… or a fatal volcano eruption, like the recent White Island volcano tragedy in New Zealand. My correlation method indicates that Volcanoes are an integral part of the seismic process, and should also be recognised and included in the aforementioned rules and regulations… there should also be a prize for getting two eruptions in three days 🙂

At 15:25:29 UTC 19th Dec, a very rare M 5.5 event occurred in the Sao Tome and Principe region, off the coast of Equatorial Guinea. The USGS posted the longitude coordinate for this event as 8’13’E. The sun occupied this longitude on 19th Dec at 11:24:07 UTC… and therefore Solar Noon. The EMSC site posted longitude for this event as 8’10’E, the sun occupied this longitude coordinate at 11:24:19 UTC. At 11:25 UTC, the VAAC in Tokyo reported an explosive event had occurred from Mt Sakurajima Volcano in Kyushu, Japan. If you work the data, does it provide potential direction towards finding an answer… or was this alignment coincidental ??

Thank you for your consideration…