Forecast: 4.0 to 5.0 2020-03-30 to 2020-04-06 35° 5’49.64″N 35° 0’20.06″E 160km/100mile radius.
Observed: 4.0 and 5.0 activity moving on a steady 2-3 day time frame, semi-equally spaced in 805km/500mile steps from mid March to end of March moving east to west along the plate boundary from the Persian Gulf up and through Iraq then making a 90 degree turn in eastern Turkey and then down into the Mediterranean Sea.
The 90 degree turn should slow the energy down slightly, thus the 6 day window.
Again, this is not my forecast area, but good practice for me.
EARTHQUAKE EVENT: M 4.7 – 43km WNW of Qastal Ma`af, Syria 2020-04-03 18:15:42 (UTC) 35.921°N 35.490°E 12.7 km depth.
STATUS: Successful forcast. All three parts, strength, time, location
Notes: The quake did strike off shore as forecasted. Location was 101km/63mls NNE of forecast center. Moment tensor indicates it was a “normal” quake…meaning not a combo fault, strike-slip, thrust, or an explosion.
