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15 ptsCanyonratApril 1, 2020 at 9:05 am #6977
I was waiting for more seismic activity to finalize my forecasts. The Idaho 6.5 blew my sox off but tell-tails a lot. This is a “HOLD ON TIGHT” forecast. My warning for unexpected larger activity east of the west coast continues to hold true. Now I can focus-in, and not be “blind sided” by un-locate-able quakes.
Observed:
Idaho M 6.5 – 72km W of Challis, Idaho 2020-03-31 23:52:31 (UTC) 44.448°N 115.136°W 10.0 km depth. Low spot west of a high spot. East edge of Columbia Plateasus.
Texas M 5.0 – 41km W of Mentone, Texas 2020-03-26 15:16:27 (UTC)31.708°N 104.039°W6.6 km depth. Low spot east of a high spot. West edge Great Plains Geologic Province.
Utah M 5.7 – 6km NNE of Magna, Utah 2020-03-18 13:09:31 (UTC)40.751°N 112.078°W11.9 km depth. Low spot east edge of intermontane plateaus basin & ridge.
All three were “surprise” quakes. All occurred in low areas. All occurred near regional geologic boarders.
Forecast: (several areas)
North West New Mexico – 5.5 to 6.5 April 4 to April 12 36°43’1.01″N 107°49’19.33″W Blanco, New Mexico 21km/13miles WWS Navajo Dam. Because it is a low spot on the East edge of the Colorado Plateaus. The radius is wonky on this one 350km/281miles west, north and east, but only 160km/100miles east. So what I am saying in the Colorado Plateaus is in play, but I am thinking the activity will be on a low spot on the east side.
Southern California – 4.7 to 5.7 April 5 to April 19 An oblong shape from Avila Beach California on a NE line to Bishop California, 49km/30miles east or west of that connecting line. My gut says closer to Bishop, but data disagrees. Longer forecast window for sleepy California. ZZZZ
Central SE Colorado – 5.4 to 6.4 April 4 to April 12 38°11’38.84″N 104°37’29.89″W Pueblo Colorado. 160km/100mile radius. Southern Colorado System and Great Planes boarder area. Low spot between these to land masses. Sorry Ben 🙁
Score: 015 ptsCanyonratApril 1, 2020 at 9:27 am #6979It is 2am in Cali and I mad a mistake.
Posted: The radius is wonky on this one 350km/281miles west, north and east, but only 160km/100miles east.
Correction: The radius is wonky on this one 350km/281miles west, north and south, but only 160km/100miles east.
Score: 015 pts15 ptsCanyonratApril 2, 2020 at 11:25 pm #8260Another addition / comment…
Observed: The tensor graph for the Idaho quake showed greatest compression pushing in a SE direction. So I put Central SE Colorado on alert rather then just sticking with a clean strait line from the 6.5 Idaho to the 5.0 Texas quake with equal distant spacing. That would have placed the energy only in the four corners area (for international forecasters, four corners is where the boarders of four USA states, Colorado, Arizona, New Mexico, and Utah all meet at a 90 degree angles, it is just a figment of lines on a map, and a great photo opportunity to lay there with one limb in each state).
I still think some energy will be near there, but my gut and EQ3D shows Colorado in play.
For your view pleasure of four corners: 36°59’55.81″N 109° 2’42.85″W
Score: 015 ptsCanyonratApril 5, 2020 at 7:03 pm #8608Observed: New Southern California quake on 4/4 reinforces same forecast area of Avila to Bishop California area. It also puts NW Corner of Arizona near Lake Mead back on a watch for 4.5 to 5.5 but not yet a forecast warning.
M 4.9 – 17km ESE of Anza, CA 2020-04-04 01:53:18 (UTC) 33.490°N 116.506°W 10.5km depthNotes:
Fore fast reference,
Score: 0
Avila Beach Califonia 35°10’58.61″N 120°44’27.99″W
Bishop California 37°21’41.13″N 118°23’58.79″W15 ptsCanyonratApril 6, 2020 at 6:21 pm #8625Observed: M 4.1 – 16km WSW of Toms Place, CA 2020-04-05 19:20:46 (UTC) 37.527°N 118.853°W 7.8 km depth.
Located 44km/27mls WN of Bishop.Status: Continue to watch Avila Beach California on a NE line to Bishop California, 49km/30miles east or west of that connecting line for M4.7 to 5.7. At this time, only time and location are a hit, strength is .7 below watch range.
Notes: Clarification of this “wonky” watch area. The area watched is meant to be 49km/30miles south east or north west at an proximate 90 degree angle from the connecting line. This M 4.1 quake is still well with in this clarified watch area. Also at the end points it should be clarified to have an ending radius centered at each city center as noted on google earth. Supporting Moment Tensor data shows energy evenly distributed both NW and SE from the epicenter which corresponds with my “wonky” watch area.
Score: 015 ptsCanyonratApril 11, 2020 at 5:20 pm #8677Observed: M 5.2 – 30km SE of Bodie, CA 2020-04-11 14:36:37 (UTC) 38.053°N 118.732°W 8.8 km depth
Forecast made 2020-04-01: 4.7 to 5.7 April 5 to April 19 An oblong shape from Avila Beach California on a NE line to Bishop California, 49km/30miles east or west of that connecting line. My gut says closer to Bishop, with 49km/30mls south east or north west at an proximate 90 degree angle from the connecting line.
Status: Continue forecast, unchanged. This observed quake hits on strength, time, but is located out side my watch area and is 81km/50mls from Bishop California. The Moment Tensor data shows even energy pushing NNE and SSW. “kinda” at a similar angle to my watch line. Still time for more energy to creep into my watch area.
I will be traveling and return home Monday April 13 so I will only have some internet access incase you all notice me quiet from the forum.
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