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115 ptslesterApril 12, 2020 at 11:32 pm #8690
Location: Mentawai Basin, Western Sumatra, Indonesia … 99’33’E – 0’50’S
Magnitude: 5.0 – 6.3
Margin: 350 Radial kilometres
Period: From 23:30 UTC April 12, for 3 days
Experiment; At 21:50 UTC, Mt Klyuchevskoy volcano erupted in Kamchatka. The RLT threshold was located on the M 5.0 Crete, Greece epicentre of 11th April… and the moon was located on longitude 99’33’E. At 22:05 UTC, Mt Kuchinoerabu-Jima Volcano erupted in Ryukyu Islands, Japan. The SLT threshold was located on the M 7.5 Kuril Islands epicentre of 25th March… and the ATB threshold was located on 99’33’E – 0’50’S
Thank you
Score: 015 ptsCanyonratApril 14, 2020 at 6:32 am #8695My observational seismic forecasting shows a multiple event near 1°59’4.66″S 99°24’35.53″E located just south of Pulau Karangmajat in the M 5.3+ range but could easily be 6.3 range in the next 1-4 day. Don’t think the first strike is the only strike in this area. Give 3 days after the first strike for a second strike.
We need to get better at this soon. I dread the day, I see a forecast of mine that never gets warned to the public, and many many people die, and I think this will happen before a forecast of mine goes “official”. I do not yet know all the volcanoes in this area, LOL, but do know this area can get dangerous quick.
Score: 015 ptsCanyonratApril 14, 2020 at 7:44 am #8696So I just jumped in to learn and observe how my techniques match, overlap, disagree with yours, yours disagree with mine.
Also, so I don’t want to forget how I came to my FIRST double strike forecast, but ALL credit goes to Lester as I was not in anyway looking on this side of the planet.
Observed:
These four are close in proximity.
M 4.4 – 118km SSW of Kotaagung, Indonesia 2020-03-26 09:23:35 (UTC) 6.519°S 104.305°E 10.0 km depth
M 4.3 – 98km SSW of Bengkulu, Indonesia 2020-03-26 19:49:10 (UTC) 4.634°S 101.955°E 35.0 km depthM 4.4 – 82km WNW of Karangbolong, Indonesia 2020-04-05 04:31:06 (UTC) 6.353°S 104.957°E 55.8 km depth
M 4.9 – 141km W of Kuripan, Indonesia 2020-04-05 22:42:53 (UTC) 5.276°S 102.514°E 35.0 km depthThese two are north of the first four by
M 5.0 – 79km WNW of Sinabang, Indonesia 2020-04-06 19:20:27 (UTC) 2.825°N 95.753°E 35.0 km depth
M 4.2 – 53km SSW of Sinabang, Indonesia 2020-04-07 15:16:54 (UTC) 2.037°N 96.196°E 10.0 km depthFrom this we see increasing energy at varied depth. I conclude we will see M 5.2 followed by another quake +/- .4 .
My center point is located 672km/417mls south of the 5.0 and 507km/315mls north of the 4.9.
Lester’s center point is located 580km/360mls south of the 5.0 and 593km/368mls north of the 4.9.
Lester’s forecast point is more centered, both are close. Somewhere close too our two areas a larger quake should strike followed in 1 to 3 days with a quake between 4.8 and 5.6.
Score: 015 pts115 pts -
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