• 115 pts
    lester
    May 12, 2020 at 1:00 am #8812

    Location: Offshore Guatemala … 91’05’W – 13’18’N

    Magnitude: 5.2 – 6.5

    Margin: 300 Radial Kilometres

    Period: From 01:00 UTC May 12, for 5 days

    Forecast includes possible 4.0 – 5.3 event within 200 radial kilometres of 119’45’W – 33’54’N Santa Cruz Island, Channel Islands, West coast US.

    Thank you

    Score: 0
    115 pts
    lester
    May 12, 2020 at 5:43 pm #8815

    On 4th May, I noted that only one volcanic eruption had occurred, and this was from Mt Ebeko volcano in the Northern Kuril Islands at 02:44 UTC. This event related in my model as sunset in the Channel Islands, North of Ventura, and Bakersfield. Later this day at 13:07:49 UTC, an M 5.6 event occurred off the east coast of Honshu, Japan. This event related in my model as sunrise in the Channel Islands. On 5th May at 10:43:43 UTC, an M 2.4 event occurred in the Channel Islands region. No big deal, but it was the first event to occur here since 24th March, and the largest since 25th Feb… 3 events in total since this date.

    On 10th May, I noted a small swarm had occurred in the Ionian Sea region, beginning with a 2.9 event at 02:50:18 UTC, and ending with a 3.1 at 03:22:11 UTC… a total of 7 events in 32 minutes. At 02:50 UTC on this day, it was sunset on Santa Cruz Island, Channel Islands…and the RLT (Rising Lunar Threshold) was located on the post seismic M 5.2 Offshore Guatemala epicentre of 5th May (same day as 2.4 Channel Islands event !). Prior to this at 01:35 UTC, Mt Klyuchevskoy volcano erupted in Kamchatka… the ATE threshold (astronomical twilight ends) was located on the post seismic M 5.2 Offshore Guatemala epicentre… and it was moonset on Mt Anak Krakatau volcano in the Sunda Strait, Indonesia. When this Guatemala event occurred at 12:02:37 UTC 5th May, the ATE threshold was located on Mt Anak Krakatau volcano !

    I was prompted to post this forecast, by an M 4.8 event in Bali, Indonesia at 00:20:53 UTC 12th May. I had just pre associated this Bali location with Hawaii, and when it occurred, it was sunset on the post seismic Guatemala epicentre. My analysis suggests the possibility of further activity in the Guatemala region… and an uptick of activity in west coast US regions, may contribute to further events in the Channel Islands !

    Score: 0
    115 pts
    lester
    May 15, 2020 at 1:04 am #8832

    Addition to forecast…

    Possible 4.0 – 5.0 event within 250 radial kilometres of 20’33’E – 37’30’N Ionian Sea Region, to continue for the duration of this current forecast period.

    Thank you

    Score: 0
    115 pts
    lester
    May 17, 2020 at 1:04 am #8864

    Observed… M 4.4 Ionian Sea Region 2020-05-16 08:29:44 UTC… 20’54’E – 37’50’N

    Score: 0
    115 pts
    lester
    May 17, 2020 at 1:10 am #8865

    Continuing this forecast for 5 days from 01:10 UTC May 17

    Thank you

    Score: 0
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