Lester: May 22 2020 – New Britain P.N.G. / Central California

Croatia-Mexico correlations… M 6.1 Off Coast of Sinaloa, Mexico 22nd May 08:46:06 UTC

On 23rd April at 07:52:34 UTC, an M 3.5 event occurred in Croatia at 10 km’s depth… and instigated a “felt” response from 1,956 people with EMSC. I used this event in my original analysis above, because it was sunset in the Solomon Basin at this time. However, it was also moonset on the pre seismic M 6.1 Bougainville epicentre of 7th May. On 22nd May at 08:46 UTC, the ATE threshold (Astronomical Twilight Ends) was located on this M 6.1 Bougainville epicentre !

On 13th May at 09:09:45 UTC, an M 3.5 event occurred in Croatia at 10 km’s depth… and instigated a “felt” response from 218 people with EMSC. It was sunset off the East coast of Kamchatka on coordinates 157’22’E – 50’52’N (approx 5 km’s east of my current forecast location !). On 22nd May at 08:46 UTC, the SLT (setting lunar threshold) was located off the East coast of Kamchatka, on the coordinates stated.

On 22nd May, moonset occurred on Mt Ebeko volcano in the Northern kuril Islands at 08:45 UTC !

Hey Mark,

Thank you for your kind words, and though we are currently working at different ends of the seismic spectrum, we both have the same goal… how to find a credible method to give advanced warning to others of impending seismic activity. It is an Honorable thing to want to do, but we also have to be realistic and face a few demoralising facts. Firstly, as you say, we are here at Quake Watch doing our citizen science bit, in hopes of finding, or contributing towards an answer. But if you seriously think about it, how many scientists, seismic students, and amateur seismic researchers like ourselves, have tried to answer this question ?. And we are talking about a period stemming from at least 1906, when modern seismology was allegedly born from the devastation of the great San Francisco earthquake of this year… I figure this would be a lot of people. So I personally am not under any allusion that I could find an answer, that others more qualified than myself, failed to achieve in almost 120 years !!

Then you have to consider how many different theories have been abound during this time. How many millions of dollars have been spent on experiment and research… in how many different countries. The sun and moon have been done to death, tidal theories don’t explain 6+ events in the middle of China, there is no “constructive” evidence that core or lithosphere energy’s relate to seismic correlation, and though geometric planetary alignments are widely accepted by many people… they don’t relate to something as menial as a 2+ in Croatia !

No my friend, you have to face facts… you have not been here long, yet you have posted enough material to complete the first chapter of a book, and your current record shows you have a 4.8 in Syria to your name !. This is by no means detrimental, and I already mentioned how impressed I was at this achievement. But as viewed by the “scientific community”, the longer the period between hits… the more this would be deemed as “chance”. However, statistically speaking, I myself and Tayrance have not been making our usual quotas during May, compared to April for instance. I don’t know what Tayrance’s excuse is, but I believe mine is down to bad coffee !. Not been able to get my usual brand due to lock-down… and I am convinced it relates to poor performance 🙂 . Actually, I believe the combination of the sun nearly reaching its summer solstice latitude, and solar minimum conditions, may be giving us false seismic assertions, that we are not accustom too i.e. how many 4.5’s have occurred at my forecast location in Kermadec Islands during the past 20 days ?. My point is the Kermadec Islands does not have a “reputation” for 4.5’s… we are all in the same boat at the moment !

It would be a nice notion to think that someday in the future, our old notes would be gleamed in cyberspace, by scientists or others like ourselves… and find amongst these notes a piece of the missing puzzle. I am a firm believer that whatever theory is employed, they each hold one of the missing pieces. Earthquake theories are only established due to a “little” success. It is being able to repeat this success that is the problem. It is also acceptable to say that once you have had a taste of success, it gives you a boost of confidence, and you continually try for more. And if not kept under control, it becomes addictive like gambling… and one consequence is, your name is the only one on the first page of the forecast forum !… LOL

You have expressed interest in my methodology in this and recent posts, and fully appreciate you doing so. However, if I speak bluntly, this is not a method that will work for anybody without significant committal to key points. It needs a model, it is very labour incentive, and without this kind of reference, my posts are just words and numbers. I have had several students over the years, and with great respect to all of them, most could not afford the time required for research, or did not wish to undergo expense for an unproven theory !

I am going to give you a small task to try, to show you how to determine potential seismic location using my method… and then you can post a 7 day prediction to see if it works for you. The location the following data relates to, has a reputation for frequent 4+ events, as you will determine yourself. I got a 4+ hit at this location recently, but unofficially because I let my short forecast lapse, and it occurred the day after.

On 22nd May at 01:29 UTC, Mt ASO volcano erupted in Kyushu, Japan. At 02:10 UTC (31 minutes later), Mt Klyuchevskoy volcano erupted in Kamchatka. If you open two tabs with http://www.timeanddate.com select “Moon Light World Map” in one tab, and “Day And Night Map” in the other. T & D has a problem with inputting odd numbers, so in the moon map input 22nd May 01:28 UTC, and 02:10 UTC in the sun map. You have to make sure the maps seat at the same level, so I usually place a small felt pen mark next to the Fiji Islands at right of map. Flick between the two maps, and look for the place where the setting lunar threshold (SLT) and sunset meet at the same point. Once you have established this, you then load http://www.sunrisesunsetmap.com . From the drop down menu in the map, select “Hybrid”, once you click in the map the time windows will appear. This usually activates as UTC, but clicking on the small globe at bottom right corner gives you time zones.

The SLT and RLT (Rising Lunar Threshold) are calculated as 4 minutes of fore-glow or afterglow at equatorial latitudes, relating to the rising and setting of the moon. Remember, the map states “Moon Light”, it does not represent moonrise or moonset. Taking this into account, the SLT at 01:29 UTC, means that moonset occurred at your determined location 4 minutes earlier at 01:25 UTC. So you now need to place the cursor in the map where moonset occurred at 01:25 UTC, and sunset occurred at 02:10 UTC… and make sure the time panel states 22nd May. This will give you coordinates to your determined location… post 4+, 250 km’s for 7 days and see what happens !

https://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/earthquake.php?id=863060

On 30th May at 03:06:23 UTC, it was Sunrise South of Lerapetra, Crete, Greece… Sunset in Tonopah, Nevada… and Moonrise on Mt Kuchionerabu-jima volcano in Ryukyu Islands, Japan. Mt Kuchinoerabu-jima volcano last erupted on 13th may at 11:46 UTC… It was Moonrise (RLT) in Port Villa, Vanuatu at this time !

As of 00:00 UTC 8th June, the last 2.5+ event posted by USGS with respect to Hawaii, was on 4th June. An M 2.7 event occurred on this day at 08:07:36 UTC Southeast of Pahala. EMSC has posted on several events during this period, but according to their record, only one 2+ event occurred on 7th June… One !

Minus “12 hours” from 08:07:36 UTC 4th June, equates to 20:07:36 UTC 3rd June. At this time, the sun was located on longitude 122’20’W… the ATE threshold was located on Mt Etna volcano in Sicily… and it was sunrise on Mt Aso volcano in Kyushu, Japan.

At 08:09 UTC 4th June, it was moonrise on the pre seismic M 6.4 Tobelo, Indonesia epicentre… which occurred 40 minutes later !!