lester
Location: Guaymas Basin, Gulf of California … 111’07’W – 26’57’N
Magnitude: 4.5 – 5.8
Location: Svendsen Ridge, Kermadec Islands Region … 175’49’W – 32’10’S
Magnitude: 5.0 – 6.3
Margin: 300 Radial Kilometres
Period: From 21:30 UTC May 25, for 10 days
Analysis…
Apologies from the start, the following is going to sound a little repetitive. Both forecast locations were derived through a chain of events, which initially started with the occurrence of an M 2.0 event in Croatia on 20th May !
On 10th April at 06:50:03 UTC, an M 2.5 event occurred in Croatia on coordinates 16’02’E – 45’52’N… and instigated a “felt” response from 1,506 people. At this time, the ATE threshold (Astronomical Twilight Ends) was located on coordinates 176’20’W – 30’22’S… which would later become the epicentre location of the M 6.0 Kermadec Islands epicentre of 14th April.
On 20th May at 18:28:19 UTC, an M 2.0 event occurred in Croatia on coordinates 16’03’E – 45’53’N… and instigated a “felt” response from 917 people. At this time, it was sunrise on the M 6.0 Kermadec Islands epicentre of 14th April. Sunset occurred on this day, in Croatia on the coordinates stated at 18:27 UTC.
On 21st May at 18:28 UTC, it was again sunrise on the M 6.0 Kermadec Islands epicentre of 14th April, it was sunset (18:28 UTC) on the M 2.0 Croatia epicentre of 20th May… and the moon was located on longitude 108’09’W.
On 22nd May at 08:46:06 UTC, an M 6.1 event occurred off coast of Sinaloa, Mexico on coordinates “”108’09’W””.
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On 22nd May at 01:29 UTC, Mt Aso volcano erupted in Kyushu, Japan… the SLT (Setting Lunar Threshold) was located on the Gulf of California at this time. At 02:10 UTC (41 Minutes later), Mt Klyuchevskoy volcano erupted in Kamchatka… it was then sunset in the Gulf of California. Combining these events using “sun and moon maps from http://www.timeanddate.com , and conformation from http://www.sunrisesunsetmap.com ” , I was able to determine the stated forecast coordinates.
On 23rd May at 02:10:27 UTC, an M 5.0 event occurred in Luzon Philippines, exactly 24 hours after Mt Klyuchevskoy volcano erupted. It was again sunset in the Gulf of California, on the stated coordinates, and it was moonrise on coordinates 66’40’E – 14’48’S. At 23:02:28 UTC later this day, an M 5.6 event occurred on the Mid-Indian Ridge on coordinates 66’40’E – 14’48’S !. When I checked threshold correlations with this M 5.6 location in my model, it determined that on 22nd May at 01:49 UTC, it was sunrise on this M 5.6 Mid-Indian Ridge epicentre, and sunset on coordinates 108’09’W – 22’24’N off coast of Sinaloa, Mexico !
Gulf of California was originally compiled on 23rd May for demo / practical purposes. It did not serve its intended purpose, and I did not want the time invested to go to waste. Since this time, Mt Ebeko volcano has erupted in the Northern Kuril Island on 24th May at 21:10 UTC… the moon was located on longitude 111’35’W Gulf of California at this time. So in hindsight, this region has now had 2 seismic correlations, and 3 volcanic correlations. Gulf of California is notorious for experiencing frequent low mag 4.0 events. But my own records show this region has not had this much attention during the last 2 months (as per my method !). The recent M 6.1 Sinaloa event just down the road, may just influence activity in the gulf, and push it past the 4.5 barrier !
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On 20th May at 04:50:58 UTC, an M 1.2 event occurred in Croatia on coordinates 16’06’E – 45’52’N… and instigated a “felt” response from 224 people. It was sunset iin the Kermadec Islands region at this time. Later this day, an M 2.0 event occurred in Croatia at 18:28:19 UTC (as described in first section). When combined with the first event at 04:50:58 UTC, it calculated as sunset / sunrise in the Kermadec Islands region on the forecast coordinates stated.
On 22nd May at 18:28 UTC, the RLT (Rising Lunar Threshold) was located in the Kermadec Islands Region, on the coordinates stated.
On 24th May at 20:29:45 UTC, an M 1.5 event occurred in Croatia on coordinates 14’29’E – 45’24’N… and instigated a “felt” response from 90 people. It was moonset in Croatia on coordinates 14’23’E – 45’24’N… and moonrise in the Kermadec Islands region on the coordinates stated.
On 25th May at 21:26 UTC, it was moonrise in the Kermadec Islands region on the coordinates stated… and moonset on the M 1.5 Croatia epicentre of 24th May.
Croatia experienced a devastating M 5.3 event on 22nd March at 05:24:03 UTC. The SLT (Setting Lunar Threshold) was located on Mt Ebeko volcano at this time, and 3 days later on 25th March, an M 7.5 event occurred just East of Mt Ebeko volcano !
This is mostly experimental theory, and therefore a low probability of success with respect to Kermadec Islands. But it is interesting how an insignificant M 2.0 in Croatia, can take you in different directions… as per my methodology of course !!
Thank you
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