5.5 strikes Southern California

Hey Mark,

I was working on analysing the M 6.4 Tobelo, Indonesia event of 4th June, and discovered it crossed paths with the M 5.5 SoCal event of the same day. I formulated a scenario as per my method, but I have been trying to understand your reasoning for this event. From the elemental analysis you have supplied, and If I am understanding this correctly, one possible scenario is that a seismic wave (shockwave) was produced from the M 5.2 Izu Islands event of 24th May. It travelled East across the Pacific, presumably within the mantle, and then came across a barrier of unknown origin, below the inland crustal region of Southern California… thereby triggered the event 10 days later. I have to admit, I have trouble accepting theories that I am unable to see related data or testable scenarios, but it doesn’t mean this is not a plausible theory. As I have mentioned on several occasions, any theory is plausible until an “actual” is found. My calculations indicate this wave would have to travel approximately 9,000 km’s or 5,600 miles, during a period of 240 hours (10 days), at 37.5 KPH or 23.3 MPH. I have noted an M 5.6 event occurred off the coast of Hokkaido on 30th May, at a depth of 94 km’s (EMSC). Does this mean that there is probability that the US West coast will incur further influence, on or around 9th June ?

I am just a sky captain, and don’t utilise the inner workings of the earth in my determinations. But I am intrigued because you really do post informative and passionate theory (edge of the seat stuff, if it was a movie script 🙂 ). The fact that you didn’t see this event coming is no determent to your current forecast, as no body else saw it coming either… not even Counselor (lol). But part of learning to forecast an earthquake, is to analyse possible scenarios after the fact, and try to incorporate any new developments into future attempts.

My Scenario…

On 4th June at 01:32:10 UTC, an M 5.5 event occurred in Southern California on coordinates 117’25’W – 35’36’N. Several hours later at 08:49:38 UTC, an M 6.4 event occurred in Tobelo, Indonesia on coordinates 128’14’E – 2’55’N. Upon reviewing the Tobelo epicentre T sequence (threshold history), I noted the following correlations…

On 24th May at 10:54 UTC, the ATB threshold (Astronomical Twilight Begins) was located on the pre seismic M 5.5 SoCal epicentre… and it was moonset on the pre seismic M 6.4 Tobelo epicentre. This was also the day that an M 5.2 event occurred in the Izu Islands region, Japan !

On 24th May at 12:38 UTC, it was sunrise on the pre seismic M 5.5 SoCal epicentre… and the RLT (Rising lunar Threshold) was located on coordinates 68’25’W – 23’17’S, location of the pre seismic M 6.8 Antofagasta, Chile epicentre of 3rd June.

On 28th May at 02:58 UTC, it was sunset on the pre seismic M 5.5 SoCal epicentre… and the SLT (Setting Lunar threshold) was located on coordinates 70’39’W – 15’16’S, location of the pre seismic M 6.1 Southern Peru epicentre of 31st May.

On 31st May and 1st June at 10:49 UTC, the ATB threshold was located on the pre seismic M 5.5 SoCal epicentre… and the ATE threshold (Astronomical Twilight Ends) was located on the pre seismic M 6.4 Tobelo epicentre. However, on 31st may at 10:49:26 UTC, the moon was located on longitude 128’14’E… this correlation included the moon on the epicentre longitude !

From my perspective, this triple correlation on 31st May, was key to instigating both these stated events. And the fact that they both occurred within hours of each other on the same day, also endorses my belief that this was the primary trigger period. The main focus here is the moon on the same longitude of a pre seismic anomaly, at the same time it is occupied by the ATE threshold. And the opposite threshold is located on a pre seismic anomaly in Southern California. Sounds like a natural occurrence, but how often does this kind of alignment occur, in respect of these two locations ?

As stated above, the ATB / ATE thresholds correlate to the SoCal and Tobelo epicentres on 31st May and 1st June at 10:49 UTC, as the sun heads North for summer solstice. On 11th – 12th July at 10:56 UTC, this correlation occurs again as the sun heads South for winter solstice. These correlations happen at these times every year, but how often does the moon occupy these longitudes at these times. I ran a search between years 1900 – 2100, allowing for a 0.5 degree margin east / west of longitude. The search showed apart from 31st May 2020 it only occurs again at 10:56 UTC Saturday 11th July 2076… the moon will be located on longitude 128’14’E at this time !

I too did not see these events coming, but I always try to find reason after the fact. My reasoning can be tested using http://www.timeanddate.com , and conformation of times to coordinates can be found using http://www.sunrisesunsetmap.com . It is a theoretical scenario like yours, but your theory can only be endorsed by results. Did a seismic wave from Japan cause an M 5.5 in SoCal ?… there is no way to prove it did or didn’t. Did an ATB / ATE correlation with the moon cause both the SoCal and Tobelo events ?… no way to prove or disprove this either. The only true answer will be when we discover the actual trigger source, too the second of time that these seismic events occur !

If you wish to collaborate, you need to do it with someone familiar with the differing aspects of your methodology… and preferably someone more “down to earth” than me 🙂

What’s the story with Hokkaido ?