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15 ptsCanyonratJune 15, 2020 at 5:27 pm #9019
Observed: M 4.1 – 182 km W of Bandon, Oregon 2020-06-15 11:13:38 (UTC)43.389°N 126.632°W10.0 km depth
Observation tool: (This observation tool was discovered by Dutchsince, and I slightly modified it.) The tool is this, watch the Sonoma County Geysers area 38°48’44.18″N 122°48’12.35″W. The area experiences multiple small quakes each day. When the quakes drop in numbers of events in a 24 hr period (under 8 events), this means energy is building somewhere on the Juan de Fuca off shore, mostly the southern half and sometimes the northern half. You review the prior few days of quakes in the Geysers area and pick out the largest magnitude quake and add 1.0 to it. So a 2.1 + 1.0 = 3.1 +/- 10% should strike off shore in the next few hours to about 5 days. This tool is about 90% accurate.
Precursor event: M 2.6 – 2km WSW of Anderson Springs, CA 2020-06-11 03:39:31 (UTC) 38.770°N 122.714°W 1.9 km depth.
When I observe any activity M 3.0+ in the Geysers area I start watching the Juan de Fuca. And when the quakes at the Geysers drop to 3 or less, I really watch for a larger quake off shore.
Calculation: (My modification) take the M 2.6 and add 1.5 thus text book perfect 4.1 struck 4 days later.
Now we watch for a 3.1 to strike the San Francisco Bay Area in the next 5 days June 16 to June 21. But this is about 50% accurate. And 3.1 is just not exciting enough to lift a pen for. LOL
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