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115 ptslesterAugust 2, 2020 at 4:45 pm #9345
This forecast is for an event (s) of magnitude 5.2 – 6.5 to occur within 250 radial kilometres of either Tonopah Nevada, Oakland San Francisco or Pertolia California, within 7 days from the time of this post. This forecast is also in support of other forecasters covering these regions, and “First Credit” will apply accordingly, judged on relevant outcomes.
My recent forecast attempts related to San Francisco have been within the 4+ magnitude range. However, my observation of correlations with San Francisco during the past 4 weeks, have been ten fold on what I have observed with Los Angeles. Therefore I am taking into account the possibility that “priming or charging” may have been taking place in this region i.e. a buildup of trapped energy !. This determination is further enforced by more seismic and volcanic correlations occurring during the last 48 hours.
Nothing is certain in prediction, but I have to follow the data… and the data keeps saying San Francisco !!
Thank you
Score: 0115 pts15 pts15 ptsCanyonratAugust 9, 2020 at 9:26 pm #9382Hello Lester,
I have been quiet in the back ground doing some studying. Studying Canadian geology and reviewing large historical quakes in California.
It appears that the entire North American plate has been pushed with 5.0+ energy. We can see this because of all the 4.5+ quakes along the Atlantic Ridge.
My “thinking” “best guess” is that seismic energy from Canada is currently having a much greater effect on N. America then normal. To me it looks like the 5.1 in North Carolina to day was from energy that followed the edge of the Canadian Shield section of the N. American Plate. Also it looks like to me, the quakes from Alaska are not following a standard route and coming down the coast, but rather heading inland and the turning SE and bypassing the west coast.
Because of this, I will be extending all my N. American forecast windows from 2 weeks to 4 weeks, for the near term. I will also look back at my recent expired forecasts and rejuvenate them with a larger time window.
Back to my studies; I was reviewing past Californian quakes and noticed on a few that the Sonoma County Geysers, just north of San Francisco, have gone silent for weeks at a time before a really large quake struck. I still need to double check other sources to see if perhaps all the 2.4 and smaller quakes just get dropped from the data, so that could be a possibility.
Right now the Geysers are active and nothing larger the 2.5 has struck, so I think the Bay Area is quiet for the next week. Dutch has been watching for some really larger 6isg energy to strike on the Juan de Fuca, but nothing yet. Thus I too see that this should occur but is not. So I started looking north and that has lead me into the woods of Canada. LOL
Best of luck Forecasting! … and to us all.
Mark
Score: 0115 ptslesterAugust 17, 2020 at 10:20 pm #9407Continuing this forecast for 6 days from 22:20 UTC August 17
Note – there have been no seismic correlations with San Francisco since 2nd August. Neither has there been no corresponding ACE related contacts since 1st August… this changed at 19:08 UTC today !
Thank you
Score: 0115 pts -
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