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15 ptsCanyonratSeptember 26, 2020 at 11:30 pm #9565
Forecast: Two quakes 4.1 to 5.1 likely south of San Mateo California near the San Andreas Fault line 2020-09-26 to 2020-10-02 37°33’47.17″N 122°19’31.76″W 160km/100mls radius less then 70km/44mls deep
Observed: M 5.4 – Galapagos Islands, Ecuador region 2020-09-20 09:42:16 (UTC) 2.603°N 95.229°W 10.0 km depth
M 4.9 – Revilla Gigedo Islands region 2020-09-21 09:00:04 (UTC) 19.882°N 109.229°W 10.0 km depth
M 5.8 – central East Pacific Rise 2020-09-21 13:37:15 (UTC) 4.043°S 104.384°W 10.0 km depth
M 5.3 – 58 km ENE of Mulegé, Mexico 2020-09-24 23:01:29 (UTC) 27.173°N 111.481°W 10.0 km depth
M 4.1 – off the coast of Washington 2020-09-22 23:25:49 (UTC) 47.391°N 128.986°W 10.0 km depthThoughts: The 5.8 was a very significant quake. It followed the plate boundary up and into the Sea of Cortez/Gulf of California AND a pre-wave of this energy struck a 5.4 the day before along the the Cocos/Nazca Plate boundary fault also the same day the 4.9 struck near the Revilla Gigedo Islands and the right corner of that plate boundary. I am thinking this energy will take a step down by .2 or more, since it is showing just that. So the 5.3 will be 5.1 or less. That energy should meet up with the 4.1 energy heading south from off shore Washington. Normally I do not use energy less then 4.5 for forecasting, but since December 2019, the San Andreas has only experienced two moderate quakes (4.3 Dec and 4.0 July) on or close to it between Shelter Cove CA and Los Angeles CA. It is well due for some energy larger then 4.0.
Score: 015 pts15 ptsCanyonratSeptember 28, 2020 at 2:50 am #9570Update “repeat”: We had a 3.4 and three 2.3’s go off all about 50km from my center point. This is the most activity we have seen in the last 6 months. So I have 3 of my criteria filled, but strength too week. The 3.4 had interesting moment tensor data showing equal energy push both NE and SW. The 2.3’s and other smaller ones are “roughly” located in those directions. This is not rocket science, just rock science. LOL Keep your expectations low. LOL Ben should use my joke on his morning broadcast.
Score: 015 pts15 pts115 ptslesterOctober 1, 2020 at 11:31 pm #9593You could not claim success on this occasion because you have stipulated a magnitude range of 4.1 – 5.1 for your prediction. However, you could post for “consideration” and leave it to Ben’s discretion whether you warrant recognition. Changing the rules of prediction means it is unfair to other forecasters. Unless Becca and Tayrance want to claim all the 5’s they have missed. I would want the Twelve 4’s I have missed during the last 20 days to be considered. And Subcoder has enough hits for consideration to fill a book !
San Francisco is a very challenging region to predict, and I recognize that you have done well. But even for this region, a 4.5 is “news worthy”, but not a 3.4 and a couple of 2’s !!
Lester
Score: 0115 ptslesterOctober 2, 2020 at 8:47 pm #9600Hey Mark,
My apologies for being a little out spoken yesterday. My wife has been ill (unrelated to virus) and we have been suffering pandemic related cabin fever… things start laying heavy on your mind, if you know what I mean. Its not my place to question the decisions of others, and I didn’t want you to be discouraged by my comments. I know you don’t follow my method, but by way of apology I ran a short T sequence on San Francisco… as follows.
On 30th Sept at 03:19 UTC, the ATE threshold (Astronomical Twilight Ends) was located on San Francisco, and it was moonset on Mt Etna volcano in Sicily. On 1st October at 06:15 UTC, Mt Etna volcano erupted (somewhere I’m familiar with LOL). Volcanic correlations may contribute influential elements!
On 30th Sept at 12:39 UTC, the ATB threshold (Begins) was located on San Francisco, and the moon was located on longitude 156’00’E… Mt Ebeko volcano in the Northern Kuril Islands resides on this longitude.
On 30th Sept at 19:31:49 UTC, the sun was located on longitude 115’31’W (SoCal Swarm longitude !) and the moon was located on longitude 55’42’E… Mt Piton De La Fournaise volcano resides on this longitude. On 29th September, the volcanic observatory on Reunion Island reported that an eruption of Mt Piton De La Fournaise, could be expected within a matter of hours. Perhaps contributing an influential element related to the Southern California Swarm ! On 30th September, the first member of this swarm occurred as an M 2.1 at 18:37:59 UTC. At this time, the ATB threshold was located on the Pre seismic M 6.0 New Britain P.N.G. epicentre of 1st Oct (somewhere else I’m familiar with LOL).
On 30th Sept at 19:35:23 UTC, an M 5.3 event occurred in Port-Vila, Vanuatu. At this time, it was sunrise on Mt Ebeko volcano… perhaps a triggering influence!
On 1st Oct at 01:50 UTC, it was sunset in San Francisco, and moonset on Mt Piton De La Fournaise volcano. At “12 hours” later 13:50 UTC, the SLT (Setting Lunar Threshold) was located on San Francisco, and the moon was located on longitude 148’42’E… the M 6.0 New Britain P.N.G event on this day at 10:34:48 UTC, occurred on longitude 148’39’E.
On 1st Oct at 20:01 UTC, it was moonset on the M 6.0 New Britain epicentre, and the sun was located on longitude 122’54’W !!
On 2nd Oct at 00:38 UTC, Mt Klyuchevskoy volcano in Kamchatka, erupted for the first time since 29th June. it is less than one degree of distance from Mt Shiveluch volcano, and I again forgot to predict both locations… similar to Mt Etna and Mt Stromboli being less than one degree apart. At “12 hours” earlier 12:38 UTC, the ATB threshold was located on San Francisco. Also at 00:38 UTC, the sun was located on longitude 167’49’E. Thirteen hours later at 13:16:26 UTC, an M 5.1 event occurred in Port-Vila, Vanuatu on longitude 167’39’E!
Lastly, on 2nd Oct at 14:43 UTC, it was moonset in San Francisco, and the RLT was located on Mt Piton De La fournaise volcano.
I am not always correct with my deliberations, but I think you should extend this forecast, because I believe there is still chance of a 4+ event occurring in the near future. And again, sorry for my words… but you know I’m right 🙂
Score: 0115 pts15 ptsCanyonratOctober 3, 2020 at 5:28 pm #9604Lester, I took no offense to you comments. I actually thank you for suggesting “consideration”. That sounds quite appropriate. Yes I am going to extend a few days.
Sorry your wife is ill. And yes we have double cabin fever here. Now we have a massive fire storm burning through Napa County and into Sonoma County. It has been raining ashes and large (up to 5 inch by 5 inch) burned leaves for 6 days now. This is something new, even the firefighters say this is new. Last Sunday at 11 pm friends arrived at our house from an evacuation zone. I was up until 4am Monday morning watering down our large property and only able to make it with a few shots of tequila and some pain pills.
Onto quakes. Alaska went totally silent for 8 (yes, eight hours)! I have never seen this before. Could be fine, could be far from fine. LOL
Score: 015 pts15 ptsCanyonratOctober 10, 2020 at 5:21 pm #9641Updating and renewing with more specifics for an infill quake.
We are heading out for the week end so this is an “on the run” forecast.
Observed: M 4.5 – 37 km SSW of San Carlos, Mexico 2020-10-04 17:13:14 (UTC) 27.630°N 111.149°W 10.0 km depth
M 4.4 – 248 km SW of Tofino, Canada 2020-10-05 10:47:35 (UTC) 47.839°N 128.630°W 10.0 km depthForecast: 4.2 to 5.2 near the San Andreas near Pinnacles National Forest 36°36’36.21″N 121°11’50.43″W 2020-10-10 to 2020-10-19 less then 70km depth
Thoughts: These two quakes should in fill nearly directly between each other 5 to 14 days after striking. So that puts today through 2020-10-19 in play. Also this area is an active area for quakes.
Score: 015 ptsCanyonratOctober 19, 2020 at 6:02 am #9658These four have struck (along with about a dozen smaller down to 1.0), but too small. Of note they all were with in 33km/53mls of my center point and the of my listed ones were with in 11km/17km distance. One day left if extended forecast.
Even if I added all the energy together it would add to about M3.2 worth of energy. Too small.
M 2.8 – 2km ENE of New Idria, CA 2020-10-14 12:18:05 (UTC) 36.425°N 120.648°W 4.0 km depth
Score: 0
M 2.8 – 8km SSE of Gilroy, CA 2020-10-14 23:27:32 (UTC) 36.938°N 121.538°W 1.5 km depth
M 2.5 – 6km WSW of Gilroy, CA 2020-10-15 15:17:03 (UTC) 36.977°N 121.632°W 3.5 km depth
M 2.6 – 17km NW of Pinnacles, CA 2020-10-17 11:15:45 (UTC) 36.645°N 121.265°W 6.3 km depth15 ptsCanyonratOctober 19, 2020 at 6:45 am #9668Correction:
Of note, the 16 quakes were all with in 33km/53mls of my center point. Of the four listed ones, three were with in 11km/17mls distance of my center point. One day left of my extended forecast. I get locations and timing fairly often, but I just forecast too high. I am learning or as Doctor’s say, “practicing!”
Score: 0 -
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