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15 ptsCanyonratOctober 2, 2020 at 5:17 pm #9598
This is an indirect forecast. I am looking to make a more precise forecast and encourage others to look and make forecasts.
Over the last few weeks we have seen a push of seismic energy come across the Pacific, up & through Alaska then south into the USA, and down to South America & then up to Southern California. I have included comments about the massive increase in the tremor map showing activity in the states of Washington, Oregon, and California. We have observed a massive steam discharge near Oroville Dam in California. These last few days I have observed an unusually high number of 3.0ish quakes West Coast Canada. Now we have swarming of quakes at the Saltine Sea (lake) Southern California and a swarm of quakes in the South Bay Area San Francisco.
My conclusion is something much much larger is about to strike. My best guess is between San Francisco and the Saltine Sea. Perhaps a southward push running into a northward push.
Location is difficult to narrow down. But I think this quake will be larger then the 3.0 and 4.0 energy rolling around the area. But how big? That is the question. I am still working at electro-quake energy to help forecast locations of larger quakes.
To warn the whole area from SF to Saltine Sea would be appropriate if we saw a 7.0+ strike, because EVERYONE would feel it. I generally don’t forecast 7.0 plus quakes. But now it just “feels” big. I trust my “gut” (more specifically my subconscious working through the data… us odd little monkey like creatures…)
Please add your thoughts to this. Even if you think I am wrong. I am more interested in the science then my ego. And forecasting is a journey through fields of failure before you reach success…(and then repeat. LOL)
Mark
Score: 0115 ptslesterOctober 3, 2020 at 2:00 pm #9603Seismic correlations…
3rd Oct 12:26:32 UTC – M 5.1 Kyushu, Japan = ATB threshold located on Los Angeles
3rd Oct 09:31:35 UTC – M 5.5 Izu Islands, Japan on longitude 140’53’E
3rd Oct 02:25 UTC – Moonrise in Los Angeles
3rd Oct 02:25:28 UTC – Sun located on longitude 140’53’E
Preliminary calculation based on 118’30’W – 34’20’N Santa Clarita
Score: 0115 ptslesterOctober 3, 2020 at 5:30 pm #9605Seismic correlations…
3rd Oct 13:22:47 UTC – M 5.3 Eastern Greenland on longitude 29’46’W
1st Oct 13:48:36 UTC – Sun located on longitude 29’46’W
1st Oct 13:49 UTC – Sunrise on coordinates 118’30’W – 34’20’N Santa Clarita, Los Angeles
3rd Oct 16:30:10 UTC – M 5.3 New Britain P.N.G. … 150’03’E – 7’10’S
2nd Oct 19:44 UTC – Sunrise on 150’03’E – 7’10’S – Sun located on longitude 118’44’W
3rd Oct 19:43 UTC – Sunrise on 150’03’E – 7’10’S – Sun located on longitude 118’33’W
Score: 015 ptsCanyonratOctober 3, 2020 at 6:34 pm #9607Alaska has gone quiet for the last 9 hours. Of note, I am looking at the Aleutian Island chain and southern part of Alaska. I do see two 2.2’s in the farthest NE corner of Alaska. That is not anywhere near the area I am focused on.
Observed: M 4.4 – 16 km SW of Circleville, Utah 2020-10-03 11:47:43 (UTC) 38.091°N 112.423°W 5.7 km depth
Thoughts: The 4.4, though weak, would indicate and area of possible unrest along a line from Shadow Mountain in California 36°15’44.25″N 116°15’34.35″W to the town of Lebec California 34°50’40.14″N 118°51’59.10″W… Which lines strain on the Garlock Fault. My thinking has been that the Garlock would likely give just after a 5.0+ strikes on or near the southern end where it meets the San Andreas Fault. Why? Because if the Ridge Crest 7.2 on 2019-07-06 could not move it, then something elsewhere would have to move it.
Lester, thank you for your coordinates for 118’30’W – 34’20’N Santa Clarita, California which sits on the San Gabriel Fault Zone that heads North West and strait to Lebec and the south end of the Garlock Fault…
Score: 0115 ptslesterOctober 3, 2020 at 11:01 pm #9608Volcanic correlation…
4th Oct 19:41 UTC – Sunrise on Mt Ebeko Volcano – Sun located on longitude 118’08’W
5th Oct 19:42 UTC – Sunrise on Mt Ebeko Volcano – Sun located on longitude 118’27’W
etc etc
Mt Ebeko Volcano erupted at 04:50 UTC and 20:09 UTC 3rd October… combined eruptions correlate to 26’58’W – 56’20’S South Sandwich Islands !
Score: 0115 ptslesterOctober 4, 2020 at 11:09 pm #9610Ephemeral points…
On 24th September between times 03:30 UTC – 03:57 UTC, the moon was geocentric on the sunset threshold for “First Quarter” moon phase, and remained at this position for the duration of this period. At 03:30 UTC, the ATE threshold was located on San Francisco.
On 1st October, it was Full Moon at 16:31 UTC. Earlier at 02:00 UTC, it was both sunset and moonrise on coordinates 124’36’W – 40’20’N Offshore Petrolia, California.
Volcanic correlation…
1st Oct 07:28 UTC – Moonrise on Mt Ebeko Volcano
1st Oct 07:28:27 UTC – Moon located on longitude 118’30’W
Score: 015 pts115 ptslesterOctober 7, 2020 at 10:24 am #9620On 7th October at 06:35 UTC, an eruption occurred from Mt Etna volcano in Sicily, Italy. At “12 hours” earlier 18:35 UTC 6th October, it was moonset in Berkley, San Francisco Bay Area.
Small contributions, that may eventually build a bigger picture !
Score: 0115 ptslesterOctober 7, 2020 at 4:47 pm #9621The last 5+ event to occur prior to this post, was an M 5.4 in the South Shetland Islands at 13:56:43 UTC. It was sunrise at this time on coordinates 118’35’W – 38’50’N. These coordinates relate to “Walker River reservation”, approx 65 km’s NNW of Mina, Nevada. At 13:57 UTC today, the ACE satellite recorded a moderately significant aspect change in the magnetic data !
These times are predominantly aimed at previous correlations in the 118’W range, but they also correspond to sunrise in Bakersfield and Ventura, California !
Score: 0115 pts115 ptslesterOctober 8, 2020 at 11:46 pm #9636Volcanic correlation…
On 8th October at 02:55 UTC, an explosive event occurred from Mt Suwanosejima volcano in the Ryukyu Islands, Japan. The ATE threshold (Astronomical Twilight Ends) was located on Santa Clarita, Los Angeles at this time !
Seismic correlations…
On 8th October at 07:35:32 UTC, an M 6.3 event occurred in the Eastern P.N.g. region on coordinates 146’10’E – 6’07’S. At “12 hours” earlier 19:35:32 UTC 7th October, the sun was located on longitude 116’56’W, and it was moonset in the San Francisco Bay Area…possibly Berkeley. At 22 minutes later 19:57 UTC, it was sunrise on the M 6.3 P.N.G. epicentre on the stated coordinates… and the sun was located on longitude 122’21’W !
On 8th October at 14:22:41 UTC, an M 5.7 event occurred in the Fox Islands region, Alaska. It was sunrise at this time on coordinates 124’36’W – 40’20’N Offshore Petrolia, California … Ref post above #9610 4th October.
Score: 0115 ptslesterOctober 11, 2020 at 9:00 pm #9645https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/ace-real-time-solar-wind
On 11th October between times 17:00 UTC – 20:05 UTC, a significant aspect change occurred in the ACE magnetic data. As per my methodology, 17:00 UTC coincided with the ATB threshold (Astronomical Twilight Begins) located on Isangel, Vanuatu. At 20:05 UTC, the sun was located on longitude 124’37’W… this corresponds with previous data for 124’36’W – 40’20’N Offshore Petrolia, California. At “12-hours” earlier 08:05 UTC, it was moonrise offshore Petrolia on the stated coordinates !
Score: 0115 ptslesterOctober 12, 2020 at 7:59 pm #9647Follow up to last post…
On 11th October at 20:05 UTC, it was moonset on coordinates 91’39’W – 14’37’N… pre seismic location of M 5.1 Guatemala 12th October !
Seismic correlations…
12th Oct 00:30:40 UTC – M 5.1 Crete -12 hours = ATB threshold on Los Angeles
12th Oct 04:11:27 UTC – M 5.2 Crete +12 hours = Moon on longitude 118’12’W
12th Oct 04:13:56 UTC – M 5.5 Chiapas +12 hours = Moon on longitude 118’48’W
ACE correlation…
On 12th October at 16:33 UTC, a significant aspect change occurred in the ACE Magnetic data (Phi). It was moonrise at this time on coordinates 148’37’E – 6’00’S post seismic M 6.0 New Britain P.N.G. epicentre of 1st October. The sun was located on longitude 70’40’W, and corresponds to solar noon in Coquimbo, Chile. And the moon was located on longitude 123’24’W
Coquimbo would be a favorable choice, but no related correlations have occurred here during the last 14 days !
Score: 0115 ptslesterOctober 12, 2020 at 11:11 pm #9648http://flux.phys.uit.no/Last24/Last24_tro2a.gif
Seismic correlation…
12th Oct 21:02:55 UTC – M 5.0 Southern Peru -12 hours = Moonrise on 118’30’W – 34’17’N Granada Hills, Los Angeles !
Score: 0115 pts115 ptslesterOctober 21, 2020 at 8:59 pm #9687On 21st October, the ACE satellite recorded a “very” significant aspect change between times 18:28 UTC – 19:33 UTC. At 18:28 UTC, the ATB threshold was located on approx 149’E New Britain P.N.G. … and it was sunrise in the Santa Cruz Islands region.
At 19:33 UTC, it was sunrise on approx 152’E New Britain P.N.G. … the sun was located on longitude 117’07’W… and it was moonrise in Ontario, Los Angeles. If these elements are combined, it would equate to solar noon / RLT in Searles Valley, California !
A third magnetic contact at 20:07 UTC corresponds with moonset on Mt Etna volcano in Sicily… decisions decisions !
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/ace-real-time-solar-wind
Score: 0115 ptslesterNovember 1, 2020 at 2:54 pm #9726http://flux.phys.uit.no/Last24/Last24_tro2a.gif
On 1st November at 13:15:42 UTC, an M 4.7 event occurred in Croatia… the strongest such event since 22nd March.
On 1st November at 13:15 UTC, the ATB threshold (Astronomical Twilight Begins) was located on coordinates 124’36’W – 40’20’N Offshore Petrolia, California. At “12-hours” earlier 01:15 UTC, it was sunset on the same coordinates. At 24-hours earlier 01:15 UTC 31st October, it was moonrise “on the same coordinates” !
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