Lester: November 6 2020 @ 23:00 UTC – Mt Sakurajima Volcano

Continuing this forecast for 48 hours from 01:45 UTC November 30

Ref; ACE 15:06 UTC 29/11 – Mt Klyuchevskoy volcano 29/11

Thank you

https://www.volcanodiscovery.com/sakurajima/news/115223/Sakurajima-volcano-Kyushu-Japan-moderate-to-strong-explosion-today.html

Thank you for the compliment Marco, it was indeed a good call, but you misinterpreted its significance by referencing the date in the title. My bad because I wanted to try and compare data sets with my previous attempt… therefore using the original post. Between 6th – 20th November, Mt Sakurajima volcano actually erupted and exploded 6 times. And during this period, I was logging multiple seismic correlations. After the 20th Nov, there were no further correlations with this volcano until 29th Nov. During this 8 day period, no further eruptions or explosions were recorded. The object of the forecast was to try and predict continuation of activity within 48 hours. This was not achieved, but significant correlations had occurred on the day of expiry, prompting me to extend my forecast for another 48 hours. However, Mt Sakurajima erupted 1 hour 10 minutes into this second extension, so it was actually achieved in 49 hours 10 minutes… 🙂

Certain volcanoes in the regions of Japan, Kuril Islands, and Kamchatka are frequently active due to their day break correlations with highly seismic regions such as the Philippines and Indonesia. If you compare this to volcanoes that are infrequently active (eruptions / explosions) in the Central American belt. The only daybreak correlation these volcanoes have experience with, is with the Pacific Ocean !

On 2nd December at 23:52 UTC, an explosion occurred from Mt Suwanosejima volcano in the Ryukyu Islands… at this time it was moonset on Mt Ebeko volcano in the Northern Kuril Islands. Mt Ebeko last erupted at 22:08 UTC 29th November. Mt Suwanosejima is the only correlation I have logged with Mt Ebeko since 29th Nov.

https://www.volcanodiscovery.com/ebeko/news/115372/Ebeko-Volcano-Volcanic-Ash-Advisory-ERUPTION-AT-202012032150Z-FL100-EXTD-E-REPORTED-OBS-VA-DTG-03215.html

With my daily analysis, I knew this event was going to occur. But between 24th November and the present, Mt Ebeko had erupted a total of 5 times. Predicting an eruption from this volcano, whilst it is maintaining this current rate of activity, would be akin to predicting a 2.5 in Hawaii… there is no challenge here !

One final point, if you are employing event times of volcanic activity to formulate your forecast. It is possible to use 12 hour windows for determinations, and in some cases 24 hour windows if it corresponds with your computations i.e. On 3rd Dec at 21:50 UTC, an eruptive event occurred from Mt Ebeko volcano. At “12-hours” earlier 09:50 UTC, it was moonset on coordinates 01’54’W – 37’42’N West of Murcia, Southern Spain… 🙂

http://www.sunrisesunsetmap.com