Lester: December 22 2020 @ 00:01 UTC – Mt Merapi Volcano

A case file for Mt Merapi volcano….

One major aspect of my hypothesis is the belief that seismic and volcanic activity is self propagating i.e. one volcano can influence activity at another volcano via the solar / lunar thresholds. In most cases it is a question of multiple notable events occurring within a short period of time, and correlating these events to one particular location. The advantage of trying to forecast volcanic activity over tracking down seismic anomalies, is that we already know where the volcanoes are. The problem is however, that my method only works on a select few locations, and in some cases I can find myself going in the right direction, but travelling on the wrong track e.g. following the ATB track on Mt Kerinci volcano in Central Sumatra, and ignoring the sunrise track on Mt Sheveluch volcano in Kamchatka. Both thresholds were located on these volcanoes at the same time for 3 weeks… Mt Shiveluch erupted today, Mt Kerinci did not. It may be a fact that some volcanoes that have remained silent for several months, or at least 3 years, may need a wake up call through long duration correlation with a recently active volcano. to explain this further, the following case file should provide more clarity to this theory,

On Monday 21st December, an eruptive event occurred from Mt Kilauea volcano on Big Island Hawaii. To determine if this volcano has any long duration correlations with any other volcanoes, I carried out what I refer to as a T sequence run. This is a process of locating the various solar thresholds on a subject location, and following the global tracks to see if contact is made with other volcanoes. The thresholds employed in this T sequence includes; ATB (Astronomical Twilight Begins) were night becomes day … Sunrise … Solar Noon (High Noon) influence extends 15 minutes of Arc east / west of the suns longitude position … Sunset … ATE (Astronomical Twilight Ends) were day becomes night. You can find a good example of these thresholds at http://www.timeanddate.com ref; Day and Night World Map.

After carrying out a T sequence run on Mt Kilauea volcano, the only long duration correlation I could determine, was with Mt Merapi volcano in Central Java, Indonesia. From the last week of November until the last week of January 2021, Mt Merapi volcano shares a sunrise / solar noon relationship with volcanoes on the Island of Hawaii. The following table for the month of December, give example of how this relationship works. The columns relate to Date, Sunrise times on Mt Merapi volcano, and Sun longitude position at these times. Mt Kilauea volcano is located on longitude 155’16’W…

1st Dec 22:11 UTC ….. 155’24’W
2nd Dec 22:12 UTC ….. 155’34’W
3rd Dec 22:12 UTC ….. 155’28’W
4th Dec 22:12 UTC ….. 155’21’W
5th Dec 22:13 UTC ….. 155’30’W
6th Dec 22:13 UTC ….. 155’24’W
7th Dec 22:13 UTC ….. 155’17’W
8th Dec 22:14 UTC ….. 155’26’W
9th Dec 22:14 UTC ….. 155’19’W
10th Dec 22:14 UTC …. 155’12’W
11th Dec 22:15 UTC …. 155’20’W
12th Dec 22:15 UTC …. 155’13’W
13th Dec 22:16 UTC …. 155’21’W
14th Dec 22:16 UTC …. 155’14’W
15th Dec 22:17 UTC …. 155’21’W
16th Dec 22:17 UTC …. 155’14’W
17th Dec 22:17 UTC …. 155’07’W
18th Dec 22:18 UTC …. 155’14’W
19th Dec 22:18 UTC …. 155’07’W
20th Dec 22:19 UTC …. 155’14’W
21st Dec 22:19 UTC …. 155’07’W
22nd Dec 22:20 UTC …. 155’14’W
23rd Dec 22:20 UTC …. 155’07’W
24th Dec 22:21 UTC …. 155’14’W
25th Dec 22:21 UTC …. 155’07’W
26th Dec 22:22 UTC …. 155’15’W
27th Dec 22:22 UTC …. 155’07’W
28th Dec 22:23 UTC …. 155’15’W
29th Dec 22:23 UTC …. 155’08’W
30th Dec 22:24 UTC …. 155’16’W
31st Dec 22:25 UTC …. 155’24’W

More recent T sequence correlations with Mt Merapi volcano include…

19th Dec 21:15:57 UTC – The RLT (Rising Lunar Threshold) was located on Volcano, Hawaii … the moon was located on longitude 69’33’W, the opposite longitude calculates as 110’27’E

21st Dec 16:36:36 UTC – Moonset on Mt Merapi volcano … Sun located on longitude 69’33’W, opposite longitude calculates as 110’27’E

22nd Dec 04:36:51 UTC – Moon located on longitude 155’34’W … Sun located on longitude 110’27’E

Mt Merapi volcano last erupted on Sunday 21st June 2020 !

Observed… M 5.2 Southern Sumatra 22:19:55 UTC 23rd Dec. At the time of this event, the sun was located on longitude 155’06’W, and it was sunrise on Mt Merapi volcano in Central Java. At “12-hours” earlier 10:19:55 UTC, the moon was located on longitude 130’51’E. Mt Sakurajima volcano in Kyushu, Japan, resides on longitude 130’39’E… influential distance equates to 12 minutes of Arc !!

Please refer to 23rd Dec in Mt Merapi table above…

https://www.volcanodiscovery.com/taal/news/95834/Taal-volcano-Luzon-Philippines-activity-update-Significant-eruption-first-in-43-years-Alert-Level-ra.html

It was the night before Christmas… and something was stirring in Puerto Rico !!

During the first two weeks of January 2020, I noted a double threshold relationship was continuing between the Island of Puerto Rico, and Mt Taal volcano in the Philippines. These relationships consisted of the ATB threshold being located on Puerto Rico, at the same time it was sunset on Mt Taal volcano. At an average of 1 hour 40 minutes later, it was sunrise on Puerto Rico, and the ATE threshold was located on Mt Taal volcano. This relationship ceased on 12th January, as the threshold angles changed with the suns northerly motion, towards summer in the northern hemisphere. On 7th January at 08:24:26 UTC, an M 6.4 event occurred in Puerto Rico. Then five days later on 12th January at 07:01 UTC, a spectacular eruption occurred from Mt Taal volcano. It is my belief that this “long duration correlation” contributed towards events at these locations !

With this early 2020 seismic / volcanic relationship in mind, I have compiled a table relating to the sunrise / sunset relationship currently continuing between Puerto Rico and Mt Merapi volcano during the month of December. In my experience, the ATB / ATE thresholds produce the most influence, therefore a spectacular eruption may not be on the cards for this relationship. I have used the original M 6.4 epicentre coordinates in Puerto Rico as a base reference. The columns relate to Date, Sunrise time in Puerto Rico, and Sunset time on Mt Merapi volcano…

1st Dec – 10:42 UTC ….. 10:43 UTC
2nd Dec – 10:43 UTC ….. 10:44 UTC
3rd Dec – 10:44 UTC ….. 10:44 UTC *
4th Dec – 10:44 UTC ….. 10:45 UTC
5th Dec – 10:45 UTC ….. 10:45 UTC *
6th Dec – 10:45 UTC ….. 10:46 UTC
7th Dec – 10:46 UTC ….. 10:46 UTC *
8th Dec – 10:47 UTC ….. 10:47 UTC *
9th Dec – 10:47 UTC ….. 10:47 UTC *
10th Dec – 10:48 UTC …. 10:48 UTC *
11th Dec – 10:48 UTC …. 10:48 UTC *
12th Dec – 10:49 UTC …. 10:49 UTC *
13th Dec – 10:49 UTC …. 10:49 UTC *
14th Dec – 10:50 UTC …. 10:50 UTC *
15th Dec – 10:51 UTC …. 10:50 UTC
16th Dec – 10:51 UTC …. 10:51 UTC *
17th Dec – 10:52 UTC …. 10:51 UTC
18th Dec – 10:52 UTC …. 10:52 UTC *
19th Dec – 10:53 UTC …. 10:52 UTC
20th Dec – 10:53 UTC …. 10:53 UTC *
21st Dec – 10:54 UTC …. 10:53 UTC
22nd Dec – 10:54 UTC …. 10:54 UTC *
23rd Dec – 10:55 UTC …. 10:54 UTC
24th Dec – 10:55 UTC …. 10:55 UTC *
25th Dec – 10:56 UTC …. 10:55 UTC
26th Dec – 10:56 UTC …. 10:56 UTC *
27th Dec – 10:57 UTC …. 10:56 UTC
28th Dec – 10:57 UTC …. 10:57 UTC *
29th Dec – 10:57 UTC …. 10:57 UTC *
30th Dec – 10:58 UTC …. 10:58 UTC *
31st Dec – 10:58 UTC …. 10:58 UTC *

Data sourced from http://www.sunrisesunsetmap.com

observed… M 5.5 Eastern Turkey 06:37:33 UTC 27th Dec on coordinates 39’13’E – 38’27’N. The following table represents an example of the relationship between Mt Etna volcano, and the M 5.5 epicentre in Sivrice, Eastern Turkey. Columns relate to Date, ATB threshold on Mt Etna, and Sunrise in Sivrice…

12th Dec – 04:32 UTC …. 04:31 UTC
13th Dec – 04:32 UTC …. 04:32 UTC *
14th Dec – 04:33 UTC …. 04:33 UTC *
15th Dec – 04:34 UTC …. 04:33 UTC
16th Dec – 04:34 UTC …. 04:34 UTC *
17th Dec – 04:35 UTC …. 04:35 UTC *
18th Dec – 04:35 UTC …. 04:35 UTC *
19th Dec – 04:36 UTC …. 04:36 UTC *
20th Dec – 04:37 UTC …. 04:36 UTC
21st Dec – 04:37 UTC …. 04:37 UTC *
22nd Dec – 04:38 UTC …. 04:37 UTC
23rd Dec – 04:38 UTC …. 04:38 UTC *
24th Dec – 04:38 UTC …. 04:38 UTC *
25th Dec – 04:39 UTC …. 04:39 UTC *
26th Dec – 04:39 UTC …. 04:39 UTC *
27th Dec – 04:40 UTC …. 04:39 UTC

If this data is compared to the Mt Etna table in the second post, it will also correspond with a Sunrise / Solar Noon relationship between Sivrice, Eastern turkey, and Mt Merapi volcano !

Observed… M 5.7 Southern Peru 07:11:10 UTC 27th December on coordinates 74’20’W – 16’01’S. On Christmas Day at 07:02 UTC, it was moonset on the M 5.7 Southern Peru epicentre… moonset in Puerto Rico… and moonrise on Mt Merapi volcano. The Southern Peru epicentre currently shares an ATE / Solar Noon relationship with Port-Vila, Vanuatu… and an ATE / Sunset relationship with Los Angeles, California !

https://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/earthquake.php?id=933701

On 29th December at 11:19:54 UTC, an M 6.4 event occurred Southeast of Petrinja, Croatia on “decimal” coordinates 16.298’E – 45.412’N… in Degrees and Minutes, this equates to 16’18’E – 45’24’N.

https://www.volcanodiscovery.com/merapi/news/118155/Merapi-volcano-Java-Indonesia-increasing-earthquakes-an-ominous-sign-of-upcoming-dangerous-eruption.html

Observed… M 5.1 Caspian Sea 01:05:51 UTC 2nd Jan = SLT (moonset) located on Mt Merapi Volcano !

Error… “ATE” threshold on Mt Merapi volcano !

https://www.volcanodiscovery.com/sinabung/news/118405/Sinabung-volcano-Sumatra-Indonesia-series-of-explosions.html

On 5th Jan at 22:18:29 UTC, the moon was located on longitude 110’27’E Mt Merapi… it was sunrise on Mt sakurajima volcano in Kyushu, Japan… and the ATB threshold was located on Mt Sinabung volcano in Sumatra, Indonesia.

Mt Sinabung volcano has shared an ATB / Sunrise relationship with Mt sakurajima and Mt Suwanosejima volcano in the Ryukyu Islands, between 24th December 2020 and 5th January. On 12th January, it will begin an ATE / Solar Noon relationship with Mt Etna volcano in Sicily, Italy !

https://www.volcanodiscovery.com/merapi/news/118668/Merapi-volcano-Java-Indonesia-incandescent-avalanches-continue.html

Observed… M 5.3 San Cristobal Island, Solomon Islands 23:01:12 UTC 9th Jan. At “12-hours” earlier 11:01:12 UTC, it was sunset on Mt Merapi volcano !

https://www.volcanodiscovery.com/merapi/news/119083/Merapi-volcano-Java-Indonesia-continuing-glowing-rockfalls-and-lava-dome-growth.html

Included with the first post of this forecast, is a correlation table relating to Mt Merapi and Mt Kilauea volcano in Hawaii, during the month of December 2020. This relationship continued into January, and the following data indicates the relevant last days when the sun was within an influential 15 minutes of Arc, of the three notable volcanoes of Hawaii.

11th Jan 22:30 UTC = Sunrise on Mt Merapi … Sun located on longitude 155’27’W – Mt Kilauea 155’16’W
20th Jan 22:34 UTC = Sunrise on Mt Merapi … Sun located on longitude 155’41’W – Mauna Kea 155’28’W
22nd Jan 22:35 UTC = Sunrise on Mt Merapi … Sun located on longitude 155’48’w – Mauna Loa 155’35’W

It is a possibility that within a “short” period of time, after the Solar Noon influence is out of range of these volcanoes… it “may” instigate further activity from Mt Merapi volcano.

The 20 day period allowed for forecasts on this site, expired in relation to this forecast on 11th Jan. The point of this forecast was to determine if long duration correlation, has an influence on the reactivation of the volcanic process, in relation to infrequent subjects. It seems in this “one” case that this is a possibility. I started with mathematical conception on 22nd December, and if continuation of relevant data is provided until, or, if eruption occurs… I hope that my aspirations will be taken into consideration !

Thank you

https://www.volcanodiscovery.com/merapi/news/119323/Merapi-volcano-Java-Indonesia-dangerous-hot-avalanche-as-lava-dome-continues-to-grow.html

Observer… M 5.5 Hindu Kush Region 20:02:45 UTC 16th Jan on coordinates 70’43’E – 36’31’N.

The T Sequence… 16th January

At 00:57 UTC, the ATB threshold was located on the Hindu kush epicentre, and the sun was located on longitude 168’11’E Port-Villa, Vanuatu… at one minute later 00:58 UTC it was also moonrise on Mt Semeru volcano. At “12-hours” earlier 12:57 UTC 15th Jan, the SLT 9moonset) was located on Mt semeru.

At 04:47:59 UTC, it was moonrise on the Hindu Kush epicentre, and the sun was located on longitude 110’27’E Mt Merapi volcano !

At 07:26:57 UTC, the sun was located on longitude 70’43’E, and it was sunset in Port-Villa,Vanuatu

At 12:26 UTC, it was sunset on the Hindu Kush epicentre, and moonset on La Soufriere volcano in the West Indies

At 15:41 UTC, the SLT (moonset) was located on the Hindu Kush epicentre, and the ATB threshold was located on Mt Kilauea volcano in Hawaii

https://www.volcanodiscovery.com/merapi/news/119643/Merapi-volcano-Java-Indonesia-pyroclastic-flow-this-morning.html

There have been no seismic or volcanic correlations with Mt Merapi volcano since 11th January… only a focused T Sequence beginning on the 18th !