5.5 activity San Andreas Fault SF Bay Area

Now my back ground discussion that I document on my Facebook page.

Start of watch: March 3 at 10:53 AM ·

Seismic update: A 4.2 struck in the middle of the Juan de Fuca plate on the northern tip. We have some smaller energy with it. So we now have energy that made it past Alaska. We watch and wait for a 2nd quake and see if it strikes on the east or west side of the plate; this determines the direction of the energy, as either heading inland or south toward California. But the energy will be in the 4.0 range, no need to evacuate the coast LOL.

Update 3/9/20: South of the 3/3/20 4.2 we had a 3.3 on 3/5 and at the south end. On 3/9 we had a 5.9-which I was watching for but looking for a (4.7-5.7). So this is a forecast hit twice, seeing it coming from the north and then getting a few days warning from the Geysers and that narrowed in the energy range so I updated to a 5.2 which means 4.7 to 5.7.
——————–
Related to San Andreas but different forecast discussion to be on watch for a LARGE quake USA, location unknown. March 4 at 11:44 AM ·

Seismic update: Ukiah California just got struck with fifteen 1.5 to 3.6 quakes in the last 24 hours. This is unusual. Then the Geysers (our off shore pressure gauge) has decreased to just a five quakes from 2.5 to 3.7 since February 28, which means pressure is building and we have a 4.2 at the far North end of the Jaun de Fuca on March 2. The band of energy I thought would come through between Feb 22 through March 2 came through way weaker then I expected. Some of my fellow forecasters continue to be confused, as I am, about what is happening. The KP index has dropped back in the last few days from 4s and 3s to 0s and 1s, indicating decreased activity, but in the last year we also had two 7.0+ quakes strike semi-unexpectedly a lower KP windows. A train load of quakes has run off the plate boundary and crashed and went off into mid-Alaska the last few days, which is an increase in activity. We also have an increase in deep 4.0 activity planetary wide and ONLY three 5.0 deep quakes in the last week. Nothing larger then a 5.8 in the last week.

Conclusion: Uncertain.

Possible really large activity in the USA, but WHERE?

Hopland CA normally should be struck with what I am seeing, but my gut says no. My gut says Santa Rosa could feel some activity?

Still maintaining a watch from Oakland Air Port to Fremont for 3.0 activity, they just had a 2.0 east of the air port and 1.9 & 1.1 at Fremont, but I’m looking for bigger.

——————–

March 9 at 10:58 AM ·

Seismic update: Late last night (Sunday) and early this morning a series of quakes struck off shore from Eureka CA. It started with a 2.6, then the main one was 5.9. All shallow quakes directly on the the southern most Juan de Fuca plate boundary (technically the Gorda plate) and several after shocks have followed. The preceding days (see my 3/4/20 update) showed The Sonoma County Geysers drop to near zero quakes but had a notable 3.0 Saturday. But on 2/26 a 3.7 struck at the Geysers and add 1.5 to that we were looking for 5.2 activity, but it came in larger. We also had a series of tremors (not quakes but vibrations) 15 miles south west of Red Bluff CA, which is notable because they occurred DIRECTLY inland from the 5.9 activity. I believe these off shore quakes are directly related to the 5.9. Also we had a series of 4s and 3s moving south from the north end of the Juan de Fuca plate and those are related to this 5.9.

Now the forecast: Since this activity has been slow moving I’m putting a two week window on the forecast. From March 11 to March 25 we will watch for western most activity on the San Andrea’s Fault in the 5.0 range from Point Reyes south to San Jose. My watch for 3.0 activity from Oakland Air Port to Fremont remains in effect until March 18 which is a different wave of energy rolling through. My gut says one will go off and trigger the other shortly after, 24 to 48 hours. I don’t know which will go off first.

Side note: On Fri March 6 about 1 am a 2.9 struck 24 miles north of the Oakland airport on the Hayward fault. But after 15 hours the USGS removed that from their feed. Why? If it was in error then we wait for 3.0 activity, if it happened and big thumbs accidentally deleted it then that was the activity I was watching for.

UPDATE 3/19/20 1:30pm PST. Today, 1 day outside the 3.0 forecast on the Hayward Fault a 2.0 struck in San Jose, on the Hayward Fault and 10 miles south of Fremont. The 2.9 that struck on the Hayward 24 miles north of Oakland Air Port was confirmed, but accidentally deleted from the USGS website, but remains on other websites. This was technically 50/50 forecast accuracy. And getting really close to the actual locations!

A 5.2 struck 200 miles north of Point Reyes off shore and on the San Andreas Fault and I think it was related to the “surprise “5.7 that struck Salt Lake yesterday the 18th, that I was looking for. Since the 5.2 made it around the 90 corner from the 5.8 further west off shore, the 5.2 now has a strait shot into the SF Bay Area, but could now overshoot. I’m extending the watch area further south to Pinnacles National Forest. The San Andreas is still in play and the strength remains near 5.0 and the watch window remains until the 25th.

——————–

March 13 at 9:06 AM ·

Seismic update: Watch started yesterday. Starting Wed. the 11th we saw quakes striking across the center of the USA over to New England in the 2.0 to 3.5 range which means the North American Plate has been shoved by the Pacific Plate. That is the energy I am looking for on the San Andreas. Yesterday the BLOT Echo maps showed high risk over the area I am watching. Today the risk area has moved to the Juan de Fuca area off shore. No change in my forecast.

——————–

March 18 at 2:54 PM ·

Seismic update: We just got home from traveling. Salt Lake City got Struck with a 5.7 and 4.5 this morning. A total of twenty 3.0+ quakes have struck and many many smaller ones. This is the surprise quake I was looking for. This is part of the push from the Pacific Plate against the North American Plate. My thoughts and prayers to all effected injured. I don’t expect anything larger in that area. This quake is at the upper end of the energy pushing eastward. It does mean that my forecast of 5.0 in the Bay Area could be a little low. My 3/9/20 forecast remains in place until March 25.

On a side note: Puerto Rico has seen a significant increase in the number of quakes this week, and all remain below 4.1 strength.

——————–

March 18 at 11:06 PM ·

Seismic update: around 3pm to day a 5.2 struck on the San Andreas Fault 200 miles north of Point Reyes, just outside of my watch zone. I knew this would be a slow mover. But still looking for 5.0 in the bay area on the San Andreas. I might lengthen the watch area a bit further south in the morning.

——————–

March 20 at 11:44 PM ·

Quake Update: WARNING to the Bay Area. The Carson City quake at a tiny 4.5 was felt in a direct path west and into the Bay Area. I forecasted a “surprise quake” of larger energy but with no area, and it hit 3 days later in Salt Lake. BUT in a direct line from the 5.9 and 5.2 and accompanying smaller quakes from west to east.

I am upping the expected energy of 5.0 +/_ .5 to 5.5. We are looking for 5.0 to 6.0 energy pushing west to east on the San Andreas Fault. It will not be a slip north to south quake but a west to east quake. I’m increasing my watch period from the March 25 to Saturday April 4th. I am expecting the major energy to strike east of the fault, but just guessing by upto 50 miles. Sacramento be ready as should the rest of the Central Valley.

California Quakes are super slow to strike and difficult to forecast.

——————–

March 24, 2020 at 10:30 AM.

Seismic update: The whole North American Plate continues to have quakes spreading across the center to the east coast. Above and beyond the Salt Lake City 5.7 and thirty 3.0 to 4.8 quakes and many many smaller ones between March 18 and today March 24.

Ridge Crest CA was hit with a 4.3 yesterday (3/23/2020), the largest in months. On March 21, 202, Carson City, Nevada was struck with a 4.5 (felt far away in a 180 mile radius, which means it was likely miscalculated and was more like a 5.1) and the next day followed by a 3.2 and sixteen smaller ones.

Now to the San Andreas Fault has become very active during my extended watch period March 12 through April 4 with expected 5.5 activity. Out at sea on the southern most corner of the Juan de Fuca we had more quakes since the 5.9 on 3/9. On March 18th also in the southern corner area we had 5.2 and 2.9 and yesterday a 4.8 and 3.5 strike. When we look south on the fault we see that on March 18th we had a 2.5 strike 7 miles from Pinnacles National Park and a 2.6 next to Salinas, CA, both on the same day. Then on March 23 (yesterday) a 2.3 struck 2 miles from Pinnacles. So the area is rocking and rolling and the Blot Echo Risk map has had a red star (highest warning) stuck to the north half of California but it has shifted slightly in land to the Carson City area as the center.

Forecast remains the same: 5.0-6.0 on the San Andreas Fault from Point Reyes, California to Pinnacles National Park, California, from March 12 to April 14, 2020.

Seismic Update: Last night around 11:30pm (3/24) a 3.3 struck near Fernley Nevada, in an active Geothermal Area directly under a Geothermal Power Plant. Five hours later at 5:00am thins morning (3/25) a 4.1 struck at the Geysers also active Geothermal Area and it struck directly under a Geothermal Power Plant. Both of these shallow quakes are related as by either or both the magma moving underneath or the plate being pushed as I am watching.

The 4.1 can mean one of the following: It is a push from the San Andreas because it was located 30 miles east of the fault and I stated it was possible to see the larger activity up to 50 miles east of the fault. Or the 4.1 could be an indicator that pressure is building off shore and we should see a 5.6ish quake strike in the next few days off shore (the formula I have determined is 1.5 greater strength, so 4.1 + 1.5 – 5.6) . I don’t see a wave of energy from the 4.1 moving south and moving along the Roger’s Creek/Hayward Fault system. The energy we are watching is and east pushing west energy and that is why we see quakes all across the central USA.

Also I think we have two waves of energy moving across the North American Plate, a 4.0-4.9 wave and a 3.0-3.9 wave. I continue to wait for the 5.0-5.9 energy move on shore.

Correction:

FROM: The energy we are watching is and east pushing west energy and that is why we see quakes all across the central USA.

TO: The energy we are watching is and west pushing east energy and that is why we see quakes all across the central USA.