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15 ptsCanyonratSeptember 20, 2020 at 6:04 am #9527
5.1 to 6.1 Mazatlan Basin at the entrance to the Sea of Cortez aka Gulf of California ( 22° 1’8.13″N 108°18’26.36″W ) 250kms/156miles radius from center point less then 50km/30mls depth 2020-09-19 to 2020-09-30
Observed: Moderate sized activity with increased frequency in Southern California and around the California and Nevada boarder area. Increased and multiple 6.0 activity planetary wide. Using the center point or equilibrium principle between the 4.0+ energy of Southern California and southern Mexico, we focus in on the Mazatlan Basin area. Of the 170+ quakes at 5.1 or greater, 88% of the quakes in this greater area over the last 40 years have been shallower then 50km deep.
Thoughts: We should see one or two quakes strike at or above the 5.1 range in the area. I feel that pressure has built up over the last 6 weeks in the area of the Island Nations in the West Pacific from multiple deep quakes and quakes larger then 5.9. The Mazatlan Basin has enough input from the west pacific and a very strong push from the multiple larger quakes from South America to warrant 5.1+ activity.
Score: 015 ptsCanyonratSeptember 21, 2020 at 8:03 pm #9538Observed:
Hit in the watch zone! Too weak. 🙁
M 4.4 – 99 km SW of Altata, Mexico 2020-09-21 04:35:53 (UTC) 23.963°N 108.587°W 10.0 km depth5km out side my watch zone, just a tad too weak, and it fulfills my thinking we could observe one or two quakes striking the area.
M 4.9 – Revilla Gigedo Islands region 2020-09-21 09:00:04 (UTC) 19.882°N 109.229°W 10.0 km depth17km out side my watch zone, and too weak. It also fulfills my thinking that multiple quakes would occur.
M 4.5 – Revilla Gigedo Islands region 2020-09-21 04:22:12 (UTC) 19.794°N 109.293°W10.0 km depthThoughts: I still have time in my forecast. Also we have new energy that could roll in from this M 5.8 – central East Pacific Rise 2020-09-21 13:37:15 (UTC) 4.043°S 104.384°W 10.0 km depth if it does not take the right turn to the east on the Nazca:Cocos Divergent Boundary / fault / plate boundary.
Score: 015 ptsCanyonratSeptember 21, 2020 at 8:54 pm #9541Just saw this from the Mexican feed Via EQ3D.
Observed: M4.6 2020-09-21 04:00 (UTC) 19.809999° -109.139999° 350km depth (EQ3D)
Comment: This is what the EQ3D program picked up from the Mexican Seismic Network. There is no way to sugar coat this…the Seismologist and or Computer Techs that work for the Servicio Sismologico Nacional “SSN” post questionable reports of quakes. When the other feeds pick up from the SSN and then what the SSN later reports are NEVER the same. Often all the quakes get reported at the same location, which could likely be where their office is located. LOL Does the screaming in my head bother anyone? LOL I recommend using data from the SSN as supportive info at a secondary level.
Thoughts: If we use the depth to magnitude calculation we would add .8 to the magnitude and this 4.6 would be considered a 5.4 for forecasting purposes. And it is 11km out side of my watch area but in my strength range.
The SSN website: http://www2.ssn.unam.mx:8080/catalogo/ You will need to check the “I am not a Robot box” and then Pres the “Buscar” button. Buscar can mean in English “look for” or “search for” so I think the button name means “search”. I have the page link set for map mode.
Score: 015 ptsCanyonratSeptember 25, 2020 at 12:22 am #9551I posted over on Facebook Cascadia Rising on Sept 21, 2020:
Thoughts: I still have time in my forecast. Also we have new energy that could roll in from this M 5.8 – central East Pacific Rise 2020-09-21 13:37:15 (UTC) 4.043°S 104.384°W 10.0 km depth if it does not take the right turn to the east on the Nazca:Cocos Divergent Boundary / fault / plate boundary.
Now we have a M 5.3 – 58 km ENE of Mulegé, Mexico 2020-09-24 23:01:29 (UTC) 27.173°N 111.481°W 10.0 km depth in the Sea of Cortez aka Gulf of California. What is interesting about this is it is located at the middle point between these two quakes:
M 4.5 – 3km WSW of South El Monte, CA 2020-09-19 06:38:46 (UTC) 34.038°N 118.080°W 16.9 km depth
and
M 4.9 – Revilla Gigedo Islands region 2020-09-21 09:00:04 (UTC) 19.882°N 109.229°W 10.0 km depthMy thoughts? I got lazy. this was an easy one to see coming IF it went strait and did not make the turn and head east. I would have forecasted the strength at 4.6 to 5.6 and in that area and in this time window 2020-09-23 to 2020-10-02. I won’t make this slip up again.
Score: 015 ptsCanyonratSeptember 27, 2020 at 12:32 am #9567WOW! Look at these two reportings of the same quake.
USGS M 5.3 – 58 km ENE of Mulegé, Mexico 2020-09-24 23:01:29 (UTC) 27.173°N 111.481°W 10.0 km depth
Mexican Seismic Network 97 km al NORTE de LORETO, BCS 26.89 -111.31 13.0 4.9 2020-09-24 23:01:29I am not “throwing in the towel” on this forecast just yet, however I do believe the 5.3 and the 4.4 that both struck on 2020-09-24 with in 5 minutes of each other and 14 miles apart was the energy I was looking for, including the forecast of two quakes. The main on was at the lower end of my strength range and the second one came in lower then I would have expected. I also had two other quakes go off just a few miles outside of my watch area on 2020-09-21 a 4.9 and 4.5 just miles apart and 5 hours apart.
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