5.9 to M6.9 Ferndale California 2020-05-19 to 2020-05-26 300km/186mls radius

High Watch/special forecast for large seismic event. Counselor already has a forecast for the exact area and simular size.

Observed:

M 5.5 – 252km W of Ferndale, California 2020-05-18 07:02:34 (UTC) 40.828°N 127.230°W 10.0 km depth. A review of the moment tensor graph shows it to be an up thrust event.

M 6.5 – Monte Cristo Range Earthquake 2020-05-15 11:03:27 (UTC)38.159°N 117.875°W 2.8 km depth

M 5.1 – 58km WNW of Tonopah, Nevada 2020-05-15 11:26:02 (UTC)38.185°N 117.894°W 5.8 km depth.

Watch/Special Forecast:

M5.9 to M6.9 2020-05-19 to 2020-05-26 40°26’14.45″N 124°24’45.92″W, 300km/186mls radius.
On a fun note of interest, this point is on Sugar Loaf Island, the western most point of the lower 48 States of America and I most certainly do not expect the island to get struck. I set the radius large to capture the south west tip of the Juan de Fuca.

This general area is a watch, however I have an area of distinct interest with in this watch area.

Snow Mountain West, a 7053ft mountain located at 39°22’26.75″N 122°45’35.05″W, which again falls in this range of Lat 35 to Lat 45 that I have a general watch out at sea, but Lat 40 keeps occurring in my forecasts and some recent quakes. Should a quake strike with in 50km/30mls of Snow Mnt. I am going to call that area a Special Forecast success!

M 5.1 – 58km WNW of Tonopah, Nevada 2020-05-15 11:26:02 (UTC)38.185°N 117.894°W 5.8 km depth. I’m using the eight 4.6 to 5.1 quakes as my special forecast point because their energy had a NW component while the 6.5 had more of a SW component. If I had used the 6.5 it pushes the forecast point out to see where there have been zero recorded quakes and Snow Mnt. area as had a few moderate quakes recorded over the years.