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15 ptsCanyonratMay 16, 2020 at 12:10 am #8851
Observed: M 6.5 – 56km W of Tonopah, Nevada 2020-05-15 11:03:27 (UTC) 38.159°N 117.875°W 2.8 km depth.
My thinking: This “feels” like a repeat of the 2019-07-04 M 6.5 near Ridge Crest, California, that then had a 7.1 two days later. The after shocks of today’s Nevada quake are spread very wide (160km/100mls + distances), and for North America this is very strange. It is also notable several of us are forecasting ALL around this event. I am suspecting that something big broke down deep. Also most of the planets are on this side of our sun and if memory serves, Earth is quickly approaching Jupiter and Saturn (I need to verify that apporach at later).
Forecast: M 6.6 to 7.6 from this posting on until 2020-05-22 center point 38.159°N 117.875°W with a wide range of 300km/186mls (only so big so I can include Ridge Crest, California).
Score: 015 ptsCanyonratMay 22, 2020 at 7:43 am #8897Observed: M 5.3 – 53km WNW of Tonopah, Nevada 2020-05-22 00:22:00 (UTC) 38.236°N 117.796°W 6.9 km depth.
Modified forecast: Lowering magnitude range to 5.6 to 6.6, same center point, same radius, until 2020-05-29.
Thoughts:
I’m adding another 7 days to the forecast with an emphasis watch to the north east of this current massive swarm. The original “big bang” for this area M 6.5 near the Monte Cristo Range 2020-05-15 11:03:27 (UTC) 38.159°N 117.875°W 2.8 km depth had a moment tensor showing upward thrust with a slight emphasis to the north east. Days later we see a 5.0 and now a 5.3 just a few miles to the north east . The 5.3 was more clear with about 60% force to the north east and 40% toward the south west. I now think the larger activity will occur close and to the north east, so I am now watching closely at Middlegate Station – Bar & Grill 42500 Austin Hwy Fallon, NV 89406 with a 65km/40mls radius. Because of the two 5.0’s I think enough energy has been released and still expect one final larger quake. Exact location 39°17’13.92″N 118° 1’37.24″W. If it strikes in this focused area I’m gonna claim double success.
Score: 015 ptsCanyonratJune 29, 2020 at 2:15 am #9140My forecast point and radius captured 4800 quakes in the time period including extended time period.
I missed on size. The largest were under 5.0 during and after my forecast periods.
38 quakes struck during my watch period in the 4.0 to 4.9 range.
A total of 4700+ quakes struck during my watch period and in my area while most were close to my center point.
My thinking is, we will see a much larger event east of the line of quakes, but we need some energy to roll in and charge it.
Again, sleepy and quiet North America.
Score: 0 -
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