Observed: M 7.5 – 91 km SE of Sand Point, Alaska 2020-10-19 20:54:40 (UTC) 54.662°N 159.675°W 40.1 km depth
Forecast: North Tip Area Juan de Fuca. 6.1 to 7.1 nearer to the North Bank and Hecate Strait, center point 51°53’55.19″N 130°41’42.99″W with a 300km/186mls radius, less then 70km depth 2020-10-19 to 2020-10-29.
Comments: The observed 7.5 struck well north of the plate boundary. A preliminary view indicates the greater amount of energy should flow into Alaska at 5.5 range and Canada at 6.5 range because the quake is so far north of the plate boundary. Slightly less energy should make the U-Turn and head south toward California. Because Tensor data indicates a slightly stronger push eastward, which is against the general seismic flow in this area, we should also see 5.0 – 7.0 energy and or a volcanic blast near the V-Bend in the plate boundary near Kamchatsckiy Proliv 55°51’20.39″N 164° 2’53.38″E. I will do forecasts for these other areas in a few hours as they take more time. I have already had my watchful eye on North-End of the Juan de Fuca for a while now…but much bigger now.
Also of note is this off shore and North Juan de Fuca 4.6 quake that struck about 1 hour after the 7.5. This indicates this area is weak and hold the potential to break and cause a larger quake. This 4.6 is only being reported by the Canadian feed:
Observed:
Event ID 20201019.2058001
Date/Time (UTC) 2020-10-19 20:58:07
Magnitude 4.6
Coordinates 52.016N, 133.328W
Depth (km) 10.0
Description Preliminary; 161 KM SW OF VILLAGE OF QUEEN CHARLOTTE,
Also of interest is the tremor map. It had been reading what we call a high number 500+ per day of tremors for a weak. This indicates pressure building. The last day of 500+ was 2020-10-13, or 6 days ago.
I have been watching our other seismic pressure gauge, the Geysers in my home territory of Sonoma County California, aka “The wine country.” Nothing noticeable has caught my attention. What we look for is a 24 hour period of under 8 quakes or over 30 quakes. Then I take the largest quake, add 1.5 to the magnitude, and look off shore on the south end of Juan de Fuca for seismic events to come ashore. Though I must admit, that this geyser forecasting system has not been holding up very well. It holds up for the off shore stuff, then it becomes as successful as herding cats, which means the quakes go everywhere but your forecast area. LOL SO far today, we have 8 quakes with the strongest a 2.1. If it goes silent after this posting, then I will make another comment about it.
One quake at the geysers since 22:39 2020-10-19 UTC. A look back over the last 7 days shows the strongest quakes (two of them) had magnitudes of 2.3. I think we might see two sets of quakes come through. An existing wave from 7-14 days ago and a new one from the wave that dropped off a 7.5 in Alaska.
There have been a lot of IR hot spots popping up east of the Juan De Fuca. They only last minutes, so they’re not fires. In fact, hot spots have been cropping up in several areas along the outline of the North American Craton.
I will be away for the weekend and might not be able to post.
What I am seeing spread from the 7.5/7.6 Alaskan quake are mid 4’s. My gut says that is all we will see for the next week.
I think these quakes are related to the 7.5/7.6:
Event ID 20201022.0722003
Date/Time (UTC) 2020-10-22 07:22:58
Magnitude 4.4
Coordinates 74.037N, 90.860W
Depth (km) 18.0
Description 141 km SE from Resolute, NU
and this one
M 4.5 – Kuril Islands 2020-10-22 07:50:38 (UTC) 47.925°N 154.126°E 35.0 km depth
