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15 ptsCanyonratApril 14, 2020 at 8:29 pm #8699
Original Forecasts April 1, 2020 at 9:05 am #6977 :
North West New Mexico – 5.5 to 6.5 April 4 to April 12 36°43’1.01″N 107°49’19.33″W Blanco, New Mexico 21km/13miles WWS Navajo Dam. Because it is a low spot on the East edge of the Colorado Plateaus. The radius is wonky on this one 350km/281mls west, north and south, but only 160km/100mls east. So what I am saying in the Colorado Plateaus is in play, but I am thinking the activity will be on a low spot on the east side.
Southern California – 4.7 to 5.7 April 5 to April 19 An oblong shape from Avila Beach California on a NE line to Bishop California, 49km/30miles east or west of that connecting line. My gut says closer to Bishop, but data disagrees. Longer forecast window for sleepy California. ZZZZ
Central SE Colorado – 5.4 to 6.4 April 4 to April 12 38°11’38.84″N 104°37’29.89″W Pueblo Colorado. 160km/100mile radius. Southern Colorado System and Great Planes boarder area. Low spot between these two land masses.
Adjusted Original Forecasts:
North West New Mexico (plus 10 days) – 5.5 to 6.5 April 4 to April 22 36°43’1.01″N 107°49’19.33″W Blanco, New Mexico 21km/13miles WWS Navajo Dam. Because it is a low spot on the East edge of the Colorado Plateaus. The radius is wonky on this one 350km/281mls west, north and south, but only 160km/100mls east. So what I am saying in the Colorado Plateaus is in play, but I am thinking the activity will be on a low spot on the east side.
Southern California – (Forecast ended early) – (A forecast miss but with notable accuracy). – 4.7 to 5.7 April 5 to April 19 An oblong shape from Avila Beach California on a NE line to Bishop California, 49km/30miles east or west of that connecting line. My gut says closer to Bishop.
Of note: My forecast point was 80km/50mls from the 5.2 epicenter. And a miss because I thought it would be closer.Central SE Colorado (plus 10 days) – 5.4 to 6.4 April 4 to April 22 38°11’38.84″N 104°37’29.89″W Pueblo Colorado. 160km/100mile radius. Southern Colorado System and Great Planes boarder area. Low spot between these two land masses.
Observed (new):
The M 5.2 at Bodie California ( 38.053°N 118.732°W ) puts several areas in play. This quake might be more significant then we realize. Go to google earth and start putting circles around the quake spot and Mono Lake, it looks frightening. A circle I used around this 5.2 that incorporates several smaller quakes over the last few weeks crosses strait over Hoover Dam. (Damn!) It also crosses nearly perfect center between Mount Shasta Volcano (active 1786) and Mount Lassen Volcano (aka Lassen Peak) (active 1917). But what caught my interest are the little known lava fields in the dessert of far North East Corner of California. Upon investigation via Google Earth I saw cracks in the surface that look like pressure cracks near Alturas California ( 41°23’58.07″N 120°24’45.35″W ) and this will be a forecast center point.Added NEW Forecasts:
New Forecast: M 4.5 to 5.5 2020-04-14 to 2020-04-21 Alturas California ( 41°23’58.07″N 120°24’45.35″W ) 160km/100mls radius. Likely near some old volcano area.
New Forecast: M 6.0 to 8.0 (wide range I know) 2020-04-14 to 2020-04-28 Compensated with in a narrow area from Hayfork California ( 40°32’57.97″N 123°11’9.72″W ) (spot chosen based upon observation of and “compression” cracks in the surface) to Mount Lassen ( 40°29’15.51″N 121°30’16.90″W ), both end points with a 96km/60mls radius and outer edges connecting. My gut says it will hit in the middle close to the east-end of Lake Shasta. Water enhancing an electric quake?
Notes: Usually for this forecast area I refer to the Pacific North West Seismic Network, and review the tremor maps. However, it appears, they took the Easter Holiday off and I have no data to reference since 2020-04-10. ( https://pnsn.org/tremor ). So my “best guess” as Capt. Kirk asked from Spock, is this; energy is traveling along the Gorda Escarpment Trench which points strait to Mount Lassen energized from larger west Pacific quakes.
Observed: West Pacific Quakes. The energy I see is the M 7.5 – 221km SSE of Severo-Kuril’sk, Russia 2020-03-25 02:49:20 (UTC) 969°N 157.691°E 5.4 km depth earthquake at the far west end of the Gorda Escarpment Trench. Given 14 days, the energy (“should it” have followed the trench route) should be arriving about now. So this is a short window forecast (hopefully it does not arrive while I type this LOL). WHY! Because IF that energy did not move into Alaska, where did it go? Does it come to Northern California or just build pressure on the dreaded Juan de Fuca?
New High watch: Observation of Hoover Dam and Lake Mead 6.0 to 7.0 2020-04-16 to 2020-04-30 ( 36° 8’43.50″N 114°24’44.94″W ) 320km/200mls radius. I don’t like to use big radius, but larger activity requires wider areas. My gut says it will be in the south east quadrant of this radius and could strike Phoenix just beyond the radius; so Phoenix will be a forecast success (and my heart is out to them should it come to pass).
General notes (Covering all forecasts above): (I told you all on 2020-04-11 I was traveling without my computer and the tools to forecast (so these are my changes, though late). These forecasts are the strangest forecasts I have ever made.
On March 25, 2020 at 8:37 pm #6923 I said “I’m guessing in two weeks we will look back at the activity and be surprised at what occurred.” I am changing that to five weeks! LOL Only because two weeks was amazing, but after that more has occurred, and more is coming…from sleepy North America. “Grandpa is still choking on his dentures”…LOL.
And I am adding more weirdness with a long term 10 year watch for this location 15°44’39.22″N 140° 2’15.66″W (located in the middle of the Pacific, no people near) and should a 7.0+ quake strike there pull a circle on google earth out to 2400 to 2600 miles and look at that ring on the west for what happened (energy in) and on the east for what could happen (energy out). I might change circles to hexes in the months to come.
Score: 015 ptsCanyonratApril 16, 2020 at 9:32 pm #8724New Observation: Based up this quake (M 4.3 – 84km NNE of Santa Rosalia, Mexico 2020-04-07 09:15:34 (UTC)28.033°N 111.982°W10.0 km depth) with my Colorado forecast area, and a new “ring hypothesis” I am observing using the last few larger North American quakes. I am adjusting my Colorado forecast location and adding North Tip Juan de Fuca.
By circling from this point when we hit the above mentioned Mexico quake, it passes near my Colorado forecast, and touches the tip of the Juan de Fuca – of which Dutch issued a watch for just a few days ago ending 2020-04-18 for near 7.0 activity.
New watch, not a forecast Center point 11km/7mls east of Point Arena California on he San Andreas Fault M 3.7 to 4.7 2020-04-16 to 2020-04-23 38°24’42.01″N 105°16’1.85″W 80km/50mls north and south from this point on or with in 40km/25mls of the San Andreas Fault.
So I’m just tossing a minor educational watch for the center spot.Location moved from Pueblo Colorado to just west of Carson City Colorado, new forecast details 38°24’42.01″N 105°16’1.85″W 160km/100mls radius M 5.4 to 6.4 2020-04-16 to 2020-04-22. Note Magnitude, date window, and radius unchanged. This moves the forecast point west about 80km/50mls from the original location.
New Forecast North tip of Juan de Fuca / Queen Charlotte Fan M 5.3 to 6.3 2020-04-16 to 2020-04-23 51°47’14.84″N 131° 4’46.75″W 160km/100mls radius.
I fell less stressed with this new info, so I think I will sit back and watch. But if we see next to zero energy I’m gonna start freaking out like others. LOL
My North West New Mexico forecast remains steady.
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My Alturas California forscast remains steady.
My wide magnitude narrow range Hayfork California forecast remains steady.
My high watch, not a forecast, of Hoover Dam and Lake Mead remains steady. – This one is just a gut hunch not following any observational forecasting rules. If it strikes, I could not repeat this as a forecast, unless I had a dart board. LOL15 ptsCanyonratApril 18, 2020 at 9:08 pm #8730Observed: M 6.6 (7.5) – 209km W of Chichi-shima, Japan 2020-04-18 08:25:37 (UTC) 27.140°N 140.106°E 453.8 km depth (note depth to magnitude chart adds .9 to the 6.6 equaling 7.5) AND hours later, M 5.7 (6.6) – 213km W of Chichi-shima, Japan 2020-04-18 09:24:17 (UTC) 27.187°N 140.067°E 467.7 km depth (note depth to magnitude chart adds .9 to the 5.7 equaling 6.6).
Of interest: this new large deep M 6.6 (7.5) matches this older shallower M 7.5 – 221km SSE of Severo-Kuril’sk, Russia 2020-03-25 02:49:20 (UTC) 48.969°N 157.691°E 55.4 km depth, followed with two aftershocks a M 5.1 and M 5.2 all three quakes were located with in 50km/30mls of each other.
Current:
New Forecast: M 6.0 to 8.0 (wide range I know) 2020-04-14 to 2020-04-28 Compensated with in a narrow area from Hayfork California ( 40°32’57.97″N 123°11’9.72″W ) (spot chosen based upon observation of and “compression” cracks in the surface) to Mount Lassen ( 40°29’15.51″N 121°30’16.90″W ), both end points with a 96km/60mls radius and outer edges connecting. My gut says it will hit in the middle close to the east-end of Lake Shasta. Water enhancing an electric quake?
New Forecast North tip of Juan de Fuca / Queen Charlotte Fan M 5.3 to 6.3 2020-04-16 to 2020-04-23 51°47’14.84″N 131° 4’46.75″W 160km/100mls radius.
Modifying:
New Forecast: M 7.0 to 8.0 2020-04-14 to 2020-04-28 Compensated with in a narrow area from Hayfork California ( 40°32’57.97″N 123°11’9.72″W ) (spot chosen based upon observation of and “compression” cracks in the surface) to Mount Lassen ( 40°29’15.51″N 121°30’16.90″W ), both end points with a 96km/60mls radius and outer edges connecting. My gut says it will hit in the middle close to the east-end of Lake Shasta. Water enhancing an electric quake?
New Forecast North tip of Juan de Fuca / Queen Charlotte Fan M 6.3 to 7.3 2020-04-16 to 2020-04-23 51°47’14.84″N 131° 4’46.75″W 160km/100mls radius.
Score: 0115 ptslesterApril 18, 2020 at 10:16 pm #8731With reference to Juan De Fuca…
On 2nd Feb between times 03:28 UTC – 03:59 UTC, the moon was geocentric on the sunset threshold for “First Quarter” moon phase… and remained at this position for the duration of this period… T & D sun map 03:28 UTC 2nd Feb = ATE
On 1st April between times 11:46 UTC – 12:14 UTC, the moon was geocentric on the sunset threshold for “First Quarter” moon phase… and remained at this position for the duration of this period… T & D sun map 12:14 UTC 1st April = ATB
Forecast does have potential !
Score: 015 pts15 ptsCanyonratApril 23, 2020 at 7:20 pm #8760I should get a certificate for location accuracy LOL. But this observed quake was a tad low by about 4,500%.
If each M .1 is 100 times stronger then the .1 before it, and repeat that 45 times. You need a spread sheet. A M 2.0 is 1000 times stronger then a M 1.0. A M 2.1 is 100 times stronger then a 2.0.
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