Keeping my previous area of chatsworth, CA, and now adding Ocotillo wells, CA. 250 KM radius for each spot and an Mag risk of 6+ within these overlapping areas. Initial watch period of 5 days from this post.
M4 just recorded at ocotillo.
This topic was modified 4 years, 6 months ago by Counselor.
I thought it would be interesting to mention, current activity in the Ocotillo Wells region was pre determined to occur, by our new friend Canyonrat (Mark). He posted in my “Ephemeral Period Forecast” at 8:01 pm April 23… activity within 160 miles north of Mexicali, prior to Baja, California. Still not sure about this wave theory, but I think he earned a few brownie points for this one… 🙂
Not been watching Nevada, but I calculated a possible scenario as per my methodology !
On 8th May at 14:55 UTC, Mt Etna volcano erupted in Sicily. Exactly 12 hours later at 02:55 UTC 9th May, it was sunset in the southern Dixie Valley region, on coordinates 118’12’W – 39’22’N.
On 9th May at 10:56:30 UTC, the ATB threshold (astronomical twilight begins) was located southern Dixie valley, it was sunrise on the pre seismic M 5.5 Antofagasta, Chile epicentre of 10th May, and the sun was located on longitude 14’59’E… Mt Etna volcano resides on 14’59’E.
On 9th May at 12:45 UTC, it was sunrise on southern Dixie valley, and moonrise on Mt Anak Krakatau volcano in the Sunda Strait, Indonesia.
On 14th May at 10:50 UTC, the ATB threshold will be located on southern Dixie valley, and it will be sunset on Mt Anak Krakatau volcano.
On 14th May between times 12:04 UTC – 12:39 UTC, the moon will be geocentric on the sunrise threshold for Last Quarter moon phase (check moon map !)… and will remain at this position for the duration of this period. At the latter time of 12:39 UTC, it will be sunrise in the southern Dixie valley region, Nevada, on the coordinates stated.
Might work, but it kind of hangs on an eruption occurring from Mt Anak Krakatau volcano, which of course will happen, because I posted a forecast accordingly three days ago… 🙂
Oh! good call Counselor, M 6.5 approx 130 km’s south of Dixie Valley, Nevada. Though this was not an “official” forecast, I still think you should post for consideration in successful proclamations… my 14th May scenario section fits the picture, so you have record of requesting assistance !
It is nice to see you still have what it takes… so, what are my chances of hitting something on the Pacific Antarctic Ridge ?… 🙂
It was a lot of long term tracking, but I was mostly keeping to Ben’s model. Where I was trying to drill down was through observing the low pressure patterns, many smaller quakes occurring at deeper than 10 km, reviewing the M4 and M5 quakes that surrounded the area, looking at the quake history that occurred during solar cycle min/max, looking at rain/snowpack information too… Even tried to monitor when phi angle was shifting to see where in the western US would show an uptick on average as that phi angle shift occurred, as well major planet alignments which I have taken more seriously for this region lately as it related to my timing recently.
Then, I got side tracked by what looked like more immediate area closer to the coastline, but you will notice many of my previous California forecasts were focused on the backside of the sierras…
Thank you all for the complements. My post was https://quakewatch.net/forums/topic/lester-april-20-2020-ephemeral-period-forecast/#post-8761. The energy I look for going south into Mexico shows some activity near Mexicali first, sometimes it drops off a quake across the boarder in Mexico, then heads south and usually jumps a beat/rhythm and skips over the Gulf of California aka Sea of Cortez and strikes next off shore south of Puerto Vallarta, Mexico by about 160km/100mls.
M 4.5 – 17km SE of Ocotillo Wells, CA 2020-05-10 22:07:40 (UTC) 33.018°N 116.020°W 10.2 km depth
More to come, we are working on the house and about to shut power off.
Counselor, I don’t know which map you are referring too? I am looking at this page https://psl.noaa.gov/map/clim/olr.shtml but the resolution is small. I do however see some interesting orange lines running along the east side of california on 2020-05-10 on the animated maps. Am I on the correct page?
You, and T. Allen seem to be trading off in the big room anyway. That can’t be by chance. 🙂
Canyonrat… yes, that’s it…and it is the anomaly page mentioned in some of Ben’s forecasts as well. The image on 5/12 shows something closer to Nevada before it shifts again some more.
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