Earthquake predictions

[Karma: 19 pts]

BeccasArt

November 23, 2018 at 11:02 pm #5368

Arafura Sea, near coast of Do lol (6.5+)
New Plymouth, NZ (6.3+)
Limassol, Cyprus (5.5+)
Dhubab, Yemen (7.0+)
Tillamook St Forest (6.0+)
Aberdeen, WA (6.3+)
Bay above Ozero Stolbovaya Lake, Russia (5.0+)

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[Karma: 3 pts]

Marco Polo

November 24, 2018 at 8:53 pm #5370

Timeframe?

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[Karma: 19 pts]

BeccasArt

November 25, 2018 at 4:13 pm #5371

We’re supposed to put a time frame? Ok, sorry I didn’t know. Is there a 24 hr cap?
My New Zealand pick was close to last night’s in Riverton.

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[Karma: 3 pts]

Marco Polo

November 25, 2018 at 7:24 pm #5376

A timeframe certainly helps! Thank you 🙂 What’s your method?

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[Karma: 115 pts]

lester

November 25, 2018 at 9:36 pm #5377

Any location can be predicted for a total of 20 days (from a start time / date). If you wish to try for the 7+ Quake contest, this is limited to 7 days… after this expires, you can try again after a further 7 days have elapsed. You can also help your attempts by deciding on a “margin of error”… I generally use 250 Radial Kilometres. If I predict a specific location, and a Seismic event occurs within 250 kilometres of said location, I can claim a hit… though this doesn’t happen very often these days 🙂 .

New Zealand was a good choice, not a hit, but you were in the right region at the right time… something we both have in common !

Your location selection “does” have potential… and I wish you luck with your attempt !

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[Karma: 19 pts]

BeccasArt

November 27, 2018 at 12:20 am #5378

Thank you both for the communications, much appreciated 😊 I spotted the instructions, and also the pdf post from Ben, downloaded and read. So I will say that all the predictions I’ve posted on the 23rd have a time frame of 7 days to the 30th. The suggested radius of 100km (62mi) in an example, to which I thought a 150km radius – equal to 92 miles would be reasonable – this is what I’m applying to these recent predictions posted on the 23rd.
Good luck likewise! My method is what is intuition, luck, and of course what’s taught on quakewatch.net, though I’m still not sure about the OLR map, which dark patches – the blue to hot pink, or the brown, or both? I’m an artist, and in terms of value scale, they are both dark patches.
-Rebecca

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