Forecast: Aleutian Islands 2020-03-29 to 2020-04-12 4.6-5.6

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Canyonrat

March 26, 2020 at 6:08 pm #6939

Seismic Watch: 110km SSE from Unga on Unga Island, Alaska off shore: 54°14’47.69″N 161° 5’19.60″W. No joke, real place and real name. 🙂 It is called “Unga Unga”.

I don’t watch this area for specific quakes, just the general energy rolling toward Alaska. Then I watch to see which quakes make the plate boundary “u-turn” at Anchorage Alaska. At that point I watch for maintained energy strength to head south along the plate boundary and into the West Coast North American population zones of Canada and United States. So, I am not very practiced in this region.

Forecast: March 29, 2020 to April 12, 2020. Mag: 4.6 to 5.6. Location 54°14’47.69″N 161° 5’19.60″W with a 160km/100mls radius from this location.

Should this or similar energy be seen here or near here further south of the plate boundary then we look for it to make the “u-turn” and head toward the population zones. If it strikes further north then we watch for that energy to “train wreck” into central Alaska and be absorbed and cease.

Score: 0

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Canyonrat

March 30, 2020 at 5:45 pm #6969

Observed: M 4.8 2020-03-30 08:21:14 (UTC)53.556°N 166.101°W.

Located 339km/210mils WWS of forecast location, just on the edge of the shelf drop off. I still think another of similar size will strike with in my forecast area and time, but closer to this location 54°49’41.80″N 157°54’39.81″W , which is 80-100 miles EEN of my forecast area, and in 3 or 4 days.

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Canyonrat

April 2, 2020 at 4:14 pm #8253

Observed: M 4.3 2020-04-02 14:56:08.8 UTC5 55.77 N 157.09 W

Located 306km/190mls EEN of forecast location, just back from the edge of the shelf drop off by 64km/40mls.
It is only 115km/72mls from my revised location posted March 30, 2020 at 5:45 pm. But is located out of my forecast zone and struck 1 day earlier then expected.

Dutch’s methodology would indicate a new quake should fill the center point or equilibrium point at M 4.8-5.2 “NEAR” 54°46’40.96″N 161°40’24.69″W , in 1 to 3 days which would be 64km/40mls from my original forecast location and well with in my forecast window.

Status: Original forecast from March 26, 2020 at 6:08 holds steady at strength, location, and time.

Score: 0

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Canyonrat

April 5, 2020 at 8:04 pm #8611

Observed: M 2.1 – 47km ENE of Cold Bay, Alaska 2020-04-02 03:29:51 (UTC) 55.357°N 162.036°W 156.4km depth

Comments: I am only mentioning this event because deep small quake. Deep small (under 4.0) quakes are uncommon. I use the depth to magnitude chart. For simple calculation, for every 50km in depth add .1 to the magnitude. It makes this quake a M 2.4. Located 130km/82mls NW of forecast location, and way back from the edge of the shelf drop off.

Status: Forecast remains active. Original forecast unchanged. March 29, 2020 to April 12, 2020. M 4.6 to 5.6. Location 54°14’47.69″N 161° 5’19.60″W with a 160km/100mls radius from this location.

Score: 0

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Canyonrat

April 9, 2020 at 8:16 pm #8651

Observed: M 2.6 – 90km WSW of Chernabura Island, Alaska 2020-04-08 07:00:46 (UTC) 54.425°N 160.809°W 10.0 km depth. Located 26km/16mls NE of forecast point. I am near perfect on location but way low on strength. A review of historical quakes for the whole island chain shows this area vary sparse of quake activity. Forecast remains active. Original forecast unchanged.

Score: 0

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Canyonrat

April 15, 2020 at 6:02 pm #8709

Observed: M 4.2 – 94km SSE of Chignik Lake, Alaska 2020-04-15 01:17:34 (UTC) 55.432°N 158.409°W 35.9 km depth .
Located NE 217km/135mls from forcast center.

Conclusion: Forecast miss. Though this is is one of the seismic quiet areas on the Aleutian Island chain it did have increased activity, just either too small or outside of the 160km/100mls forecast area; though no seismic activity of notable consequence.

END

Score: 0