• ← Back to discussions
    Posted in: Forecasting Guidelines  
  • 17 pts
    Management
    March 9, 2017 at 12:57 am #621

    PLEASE USE THESE GUIDELINES!

    This page tells you how to post a forecast, proclaim success, and interact with other users/posts.

    THE THINGS YOU POST: Anything posted is considered to be open-source and for the good of the community- that is the point of open-source progress. Anything posted here that is used or improved-upon must cite the poster of the material used, and a link to the posting.

    OFFICIAL NEPEC/USGS RECOMMENDATIONS AND INFORMATION ON FORECASTING/PREDICTING EARTHQUAKES – A MUST-READ!!!!!!!

    HOW TO MAKE A VERIFIABLE FORECAST: When you have a forecast to make, here is what is required:

    1. CREATE A NEW TOPIC IN THE “MAKE A FORECAST” FORUM – All new forecasts should have their own topic; additions, corrections and cancellations of forecasts should be made as replies to the forecast topic in question.
    2. TOPIC TITLE: (your username) – (the current date) Example: BobbyLT88 – October 5, 2017). Including the time is optional, but recommended, and UTC is the preferred time zone.
    3. Post a forecast that contains the following information:

    LOCATION: We must be able to tell where your alert zones begin and end, with enough certainty that a reasonable observer can determine if a subsequent earthquake falls within the alert zone. This is where making an ‘alert map’ is helpful. It is important that you keep alert areas small and specific- we will not review forecasts with more than 25% of the ring of fire on the highest level of alert.

    MAGNITUDE: There must be a magnitude aspect to the forecast. Both positive and negative forecasts are valid. (You can forecast earthquakes or periods of safety/no-earthquake occurrences, example of a negative forecast: “No M7+ earthquakes shall strike Central America until 2020”).

    TIMING: The timeline must not be ambiguous, but contain definitive start times and end time. If no start time is given, we assume it begins at the time of posting. If no end time is given, the forecast persists until your next forecast, a successfully predicted event, or an event that signifies a failure of the forecast.

    ***Here are some examples of timing issues: “About a week” is not an example of a valid timeline because it is not definitive. “Japan is next for a M6+ earthquake update” is a forecast that can be cancelled by a subsequent post like “Focus of M6+ earthquakes is Chile, Argentina and Bolivia” – otherwise there is no way to determine an end to the timeline. “The next M8+ earthquake will strike within 100km of the Japanese coastline” is a valid forecast, and persists until the next the next M8+ earthquake, or until cancelled by the user- however it is also an example of a forecast that would NOT be cancelled by just any subsequent forecast like “M6+ to strike California in 3 days”, because they are sufficiently unrelated in magnitude, time, and location.

    POSTING TEXT/IMAGES: You may post plain text, or a link to an image you have created (like our alert-maps), but you cannot directly post images to our servers (to keep the free repository free, and the Members’ areas low-cost). IF YOU POST AN IMAGE you must make sure you include a timeline and magnitude prediction either on the image itself, or in the post along with the image. Depending on where you post your images, you may just be able to post your link and have the image appear. If not- please feel free to post images to Flickr, Facebook, Twitter, Instagram or anywhere else you can get a link. Insert that link in the post or the box that appears after clicking the [LINK] button.

    You cannot delete anything. If you need to fix or change something, post a “REPLY” on that same forecast ‘Topic’ that you created. This is a field where failure is common even for the best- get over it quickly, and push forward. We also can’t have users posting 100 alerts and deleting the 99 that fail, now can we?

    PROCLAIMING SUCCESS: While nobody can stop you from posting about your success in the public repository, we will not be monitoring that forum for success proclamations. Due to the time involved in verifying and determining statistical validity of forecasts, we can only offer this to MEMBERS. 

    FORMAT for PROCLAIMING SUCCESS: In this order, post the following:
    1) “M_._ SUCCESSFULLY PREDICTED by (your username) on (Date)”,
    2) a link to any of your forecast postings that were active during that time. Following this formula will allow for easier compilation and tracking of your success!

    ***NOT EVERY PROCLAMATION WILL BE ANSWERED: Due to the frequency of significant earthquakes, alerts covering more than 25% of the ring of fire will not be reviewed unless the timeline is less than one week and the magnitude forecast is M7+, timelines of longer than 7 days will not be considered unless the alert coverage is less than 5% or the magnitude forecast is M7+, and forecasts of <M5.5 will only be considered for review in the USA, Canada, and areas outside the Pacific-Indonesian ring of fire system. No forecasts will be reviewed if longer than 20 days, less than M4.5, or covering more than 1/3rd of the ring of fire – regardless of other aspects of the forecast.***

    Members and Public Users are strongly encouraged to participate in the success verification process. Your votes on the posts will help determine which forecasts have the most value for study, and which new ideas work the best.

    Disagreements/Rulings: Any disagreements regarding any of these items shall be attempted to be resolved with the voting functions within the forum. If a resolution is not possible, requests for ‘rulings’ may be submitted to support@suspicious0bservers.org along with a link to the forecast in question.

    Rules for Discussion on Posts: We hope to have good discussion and exchange of ideas about forecasting methods, but we also will not tolerate belittling, trolling, bullying, racism, perverse or illegal comments, and your account absolutely will be suspended or disabled for bringing such negativity into this utterly positive effort. We are all paying for this server and the programs (well, right now it’s mostly Ben paying, but he appreciates your help) and we are all trying to do something good for the world. THIS WILL BE STRICTLY ENFORCED.

    This post has received 11 votes up.
    Score: 11
  • |
Viewing 1 post (of 1 total)

The forum ‘Forecasting Guidelines’ is closed to new topics and replies.

Start typing and press Enter to search