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6 ptsJECJune 25, 2018 at 12:06 pm #4927
DATE: June 24-27, 2018. 50 mile diameter from central point of Lat/Long 19N 155W Kileaua area. Logic: Increasing number of deeper earthquakes and increased numbers of tremors over 1000 a day. Earthquakes of 5+ daily at volcano summit. Earthquakes of 4+ at summit daily. These are subsidence quakes, not tectonic. However the deeper quakes at the 3+ KM depths indicate magma chamber involvment/flows. And specifically the 3-4 km depth quakes are at the boundry of the Hilina Slump and lower rock levels. Its this particular area and above that has movement to the SE. Ongoing lava flows from the rift fissures and ground cracks indicate magma movement/ground involvement. Coronal holes face the earth during this period of unrest in Hawaii.
Score: 06 pts6 ptsJECJuly 2, 2018 at 12:04 pm #4960Extending this forcast for three day period, July 2-5, 2018. drop in GPS location measurements has increased. Approximately 1000 foot drop since May 3th. Deeper earthquakes occuring over the islands as the other volcanos ‘speak’ to Kileaua’s activity. Someone, the USGS?, should be monitoring the Hilina Slump areas as the rift zone is significantly impacted by the lava outflows; earthquakes deeper than 3-4KM represent the ‘sliding’ area under the theorized 70KM by 30KM
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‘block of rock that forms the breakaway part of the island.6 ptsJECJuly 2, 2018 at 5:15 pm #4961Watching the tiltmeters. During reading on the monitoring process, I was suprised to read a 5mm change was significant. We have a 25,000 mm change! see https://hilo.hawaii.edu/~kenhon/GEOL205/monitor/monitors.html
One thing to note..rapid deflation(tilt) could indicate the possiblity of a flank collapse. If this rate of deflation continues, by tomorrow my predction of quake size should be upped. Will watch and see. An 8M is not out of the realm of possible in case of a collapse. Not sure it it would be considered tectonic or volcanic.
Score: 06 ptsJECJuly 3, 2018 at 11:29 am #4963Weather seems to be focused on the rift zone. Not an earthspot, but an intense area. See video. Maybe just nature..but looking for discriminators.
KaBOOM! Thunderstorms blowing UP over LERZ today. Continuous since 7:40 this AM. Pele working hard today (and using the upper low as an assist). Unreal! #hiwx #hivolcano pic.twitter.com/olDP4atjR4
— Robert Ballard (@firebomb56) July 2, 2018
The deformation, downward, is shown more intense quakes..and a steeper slope, today July 3.
Score: 06 ptsJECJuly 8, 2018 at 3:31 pm #4973Just had a new 5.4 earthquake that USGS did NOT POST until almost an hour or more after it showed up on deformation GPS/tilt meters. Now thats scary.
Extending EQ prediction from July 9-13, 2018 , M6+ earthquake near or at Kileau area of Big Island. The character has changed somewhat as to increase in quakes, magnitude and depth on July 8th. Blot echos near Australia/New Zealand area suggest a NE direction for this feature.
Score: 06 ptsJECJuly 17, 2018 at 11:11 am #5021Extending prediction of a MAG 6-7 earthquake Big Island Hawaii associated with Kileaua Volcano. July 18-21 2018. Cause, alert zone by Risk Tool ask we. ll as planetary alinement July 19th. Some effects from coronal hole starting to come in to view. NO blot echo under Hawaii itself, but large BE to the south and west of Hawaii near indonesia and those islands such as Solomons/Vanuatu. Vanuatu, I predict, may have a large M6+ on the 19th as well sightly offshore of the islands proper.
Score: 06 ptsJECJuly 17, 2018 at 11:15 am #5022also, earthquakes have increased to over 1200 a day, some very deep ones near the BIG CRACK. Most larger EQ are along a zone from Kileaua to Monua Loa, and along the eastern rift zone/just off the lip of the edge. 23 tourists injured in tour boat when lava bomb exploded into their boat, someone did not respect the power of the lava interaction with sea water. One tour company there with some large legal issues.
Score: 06 ptsJECJuly 22, 2018 at 10:12 am #5043Well..missed forecasting an event for Hawaii..but more and more earthquakes, and three days ago, the USGS did the tremedously unusual act of warning of possible explosive events due to magma hitting water table. Earthquakes are now over 1200 a day, and today July 22, 2018, in less than 8 hours has hit over 800. Last quake was larger, plus the graphs on the HVO chart show a slight change, steeper angle and more activity in the logs between m5 quakes. The m4 have not happened for serveral days, only a longer span then 5.3 to 5.4 quakes. No blot echos near the area, but incoming coronal hole stream may come to bear on the situation.
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