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15 ptsCanyonratJuly 22, 2020 at 7:19 pm #9298
I did not see this one coming. No observational forecasting supported anything this big. Dutch had placed a watch for 7.0 activity, but near Bishop California, a location swarming with quakes.
I am thinking this beasty 7.8 was from this quake M 5.0 – southeast of Shikoku, Japan 2020-07-16 20:03:09 (UTC)30.299°N 136.804°E 500.0 km depth. Depth makes it 6.0 of energy and just a reminder, this one did not cause the 7.8 but rather was part of the energy rolling along like an ocean wave.
The USGS is not showing all the Canadian quakes, so here is a list up to this moment of the last 24 hours.
2020-07-22 11:33:28 49.270 -128.384 10.0 4.0 Preliminary; 171 KM W OF GOLD RIVER, BC
2020-07-22 11:33:21 48.837 -129.373 10.0 5.1 221 km SW of Port Alice, BC
2020-07-22 11:33:21 48.840 -129.370 10.0 5.1 Preliminary; 220 km SW of Port Alice, BC (Please note this could be a double report.)Based on one of those 5.1’s we could consider this 7.8 energy as being a fast mover.
This should place much of California at risk. I will do a thorough review and forecast when I get back from work. However, something could strike at any moment in the 5.0+ range.
Score: 0115 ptslesterJuly 23, 2020 at 12:17 am #9301Collaboration…
22nd July 20:15 UTC – Moonrise on Mt Ebeko volcano … Sun located on longitude 122’07’W
22nd July 20:24 UTC – Sunrise on M 7.0 Eastern P.N.G 17/7. … Sun located on longitude 124’22’W… Sunrise on M 6.2 Micronesia 6/7… Moonrise on M 6.1 Tonga 18/7
22nd July 22:26 UTC – Moonrise on M 7.0 Eastern P.N.G. … Moon located on longitude 124’36’WMy review suggests Petrolia, CA or Bandon, Oregon with reference to these correlations. However, as Mt Ebeko volcano has correlated to many recent event times, including the M 6.3 China event of 22nd July… San Francisco could not be discounted either !
The Swarm in long Valley Area, California correlates to the moon on Mt Nishino-Shima volcano “12 hours” earlier !
Now its just a question of when your wave is going to hit…
Score: 0115 pts115 pts115 ptslesterJuly 23, 2020 at 12:11 pm #9305On 22nd July at 13:58 UTC (09:58 loc), an explosive event occurred from Mt Popocatepetl volcano in Mexico. This event did not correlate to any locations in my model… except to itself. Moonrise occurred on this volcano at 13:59 UTC… this suggests the advancing moonrise triggered the explosion. It also suggests the moon was “very” influential on 22nd July… makes for contemplation how influential it would be, combined with sunset in Alaskan regions !
Score: 015 ptsCanyonratJuly 25, 2020 at 6:55 pm #9309Lester, I too keep looking at central Oregon. But it is so rare to have quakes, and my data just barely points to this area.
I am watching this quake: M 5.1 – southeast of Shikoku, Japan 2020-07-16 20:03:09 (UTC)30.314°N 136.779°E 502.0 km depth (6.1 energy) to roll under the Pacific and strike inland from the N. American Western Coast with similar energy. It should arrive between 2020-07-26 and 2020-08-02 IF my hypotheses is true. Location of such a quake is still not determinable. So if we see a 6.0ish quake strike 200+ miles inland, that is the energy I am looking for. My observational forecasting does not show me anything confirming for potential quakes, so I am sitting and watching at this time.
Score: 015 ptsCanyonratJuly 27, 2020 at 3:07 am #9314I have reviewed, thought about, and re-reviewed California, Oregon, and Washington States. It looks like to me, that nothing big will strike…however, the east edge of California from Ridge Crest to Mono Lake, could be struck with a 6.0ish energy. My certainty of this is low, and that is why I have been rather quiet, my tools just don’t show anything with even moderate certainty.
So this is a watch, not a forecast because it is just a good guess.
Center point, 37° 0’40.30″N 117°26’34.15″W, 160km/100mls radius, from now to 2020-08-02, 5.5 to 6.5, no deeper the 70km. So this is the circle, but I don’t think anything will strike far west from HWY 395 but do think we could see really larger activity 6.0+ strike east of an area I have been watching from a few weeks ago:
From 2020-06-15: “My “hunch” is it will come in around M 6.7 south of Latitude 40 and in central Nevada, east of the swarm of quakes currently rumbling and near the highways of ( US 6 and State Route 375 ) 375 is also known as Extraterrestrial Highway. 🙂 Just a “good old” unscientific “hunch” and maybe a UFO will zoom by to observe said quake.”
Today July 26 an observed and a very rare quake indeed: M 2.2 – 66 km NW of Rachel, Nevada 2020-07-26 03:58:38 (UTC) 38.067°N 116.282°W 16.2 km depth (located 16km/10mls from the Extraterrestrial Highway Intersection!).
My hunch was all the seismic activity to the west of this was going to spread and spread WITH SIGNIFICANCE to the east and somewhere around this very location. This could very well be a one-off rare quake…or the first of 2000+ quakes.
Back to the watch area. So if quakes strike to the east of my circle, up to 160km/100mls, this is what I have been looking for. But guessing for, no science behind it.
And we can not rule out human intuition, but it is difficult to rely upon. Kind of like when you are getting out of you car in a parking lot, and you just get back in and drive to a different section of the parking lot, it just did not feel “right” at the first spot.
Score: 0115 ptslesterJuly 27, 2020 at 5:46 pm #9315Sounds like you could use a hand to keep the aliens at bay… 🙂
I have put some stats together which relate to Nevada and Southern Peru. I have also compared these against correlations in Oregon, California and Idaho… Nevada seems to be the only workable location. I don’t Generally predict at swarm locations because my method indicates that swarms occur because of correlation with a pre seismic location, and these could be on the opposite side of the earth. I decided to try for Southern Peru because the T sequence indicated significant correlation on this occasion… and I didn’t want Mt Merapi volcano to feel lonely lol. I have based these stats on coordinates 117’32’W – 38’05’N West of Tonopah Nevada, and 69’42’W – 17’34’S Southern Peru. So any reference to Nevada or Southern Peru, relates to these coordinates. I am also taking into account that you have a “live watch” in progress in your stated region based on your own seismic wave theory. I therefore contribute what I know in relation to this region, rather than promoting alternate theories to a “live prediction”… to do otherwise would be disrespectful !
The first statistics relate to number of events at these locations, during the last 8 days that 2+ “activity occurred”… but not necessarily 8 consecutive days !
Nevada – 19th July = 2 … 20th July = 6 … 21st July = 4 … 22nd July = 6 … 23rd July = 11 … 24th July = 14 … 25th July = 13 … 26th July = 18 … 27th July up to 16:00 UTC = 4
Southern Peru – 10th June = 1 … 8th July = 1 … 13th July = 1 … 17th July = 1 … 24th July = 1 … 25th July = 10 … 26th July = 31 … 27th July up to 16:00 UTC = 2
These results indicate that swarms at both these locations reached a peak on 26th July. This poses the question that if frequency of activity is similar at two different locations, thousands of miles apart… what do they have in common ?. Your analysis of this region is based on seismic wave theory, related to the M 7.8 South of Perryville, Alaska event of 22nd July. Therefore any correlations as per my methodology, would have to occur from the date of this event !
On 22nd July at 12:45:38 UTC, it was sunrise in Nevada… the RLT (Rising Lunar Threshold) was located in Southern Peru… and the moon was located on longitude 15’12’E. Mt Stromboli volcano in Italy resides on longitude 15’12’E, and it is my belief that active volcanoes and “frequent” seismic locations like Puerto Rico etc, contribute greatly to energy transfer or electromagnetic influence. They are the closest gateways to earths interior, and the power house within. Both Mt Etna and Mt Stromboli volcanoes are currently active, and correlation to these volcanoes has served me well on several occasions.
Moving into the future… On 28th July at 11:05:46 UTC, The ATB threshold (Astronomical Twilight Begins) will be located in Nevada… it will be sunrise in Southern Peru… and the sun will be located on longitude 15’12’E Mt Stromboli volcano. It is also worth noting that the ATE threshold (Astronomical Twilight Ends) will be located on the post seismic M 5.2 Mindanao Philippines epicentre of 26th July. Further significant seismic activity in this region, may also increase the odds of notable activity occurring in Nevada !
On 24th July, an off target correlation occurred at 23:39 UTC. The ATE threshold was located in Southern Peru “on the stated coordinates”, and the moon was located on longitude 117’04’W… therefore, off target from the stated coordinates. Another belief of mine is that the moons influence extends one degree East and West of its longitude position relative to earth. But accuracy dictates, belief is not an accepted reason to include it in the calculations. On 28th July, another off target correlation occurs at 02:13 UTC. The moon will be located on longitude 117’48’W… the ATE threshold will be located on the post seismic M 7.4 Oaxaca, Mexico epicentre of 23rd June… and the ATB threshold will be located on Mt Etna volcano !
For the past three weeks, I have been closely observing Mt Nishino-shima volcano in the volcano islands region of Japan. I had prepared a T sequence table, so it was easier to calculate correlations of this volcano with pre seismic locations. The following table relates to sunrise times on Nishino-shima volcano, and the longitude position of the sun at these times…
21st July 19:55 UTC – Sun 117’08’W
22nd July 19:55 UTC – sun 117’07’W
23rd July 19:56 UTC – sun 117’22’W
24th July 19:56 UTC – sun 117’22’W
25th July 19:57 UTC – sun 117’36’W
26th July 19:57 UTC – sun 117’37’W = ATE on Mt Etna
27th July 19:58 UTC – sun 117’52’W = ATE on Mt Etna
28th July 19:58 UTC – sun 117’52’W = ATE on Mt Stromboli
29th July 19:59 UTC – sun 118’08’W = ATE on Mt Stromboli
30th July 19:59 UTC – sun 118’08’WYou can see from the table that correlations with Mt Etna and Mt Stromboli volcanoes, do not continue after 29th July. Even though the sun is on the same longitude on 30th July, as it was on 29th July. And sunrise on Mt Nishino-shima volcano is the same on both days. This is because the threshold angles change daily as the earth moves away from the sun, or towards it. You can also appreciate from the table that with each passing day, the sun is moving more Westerly, thus the times will eventually correlate to locations like Ridgecrest and Los Angeles etc.
Lastly, I found a couple of event correlations related to Nevada…
On 20th July at 03:08:02 UTC (pre Alaska !), an M 5.2 event occurred in the South Sandwich Islands… it was sunset in Nevada. On 24th July at 12:46:24 UTC, an M 5.0 event occurred in the Celebes Sea… it was sunrise in Nevada. On 26th July at 22:01:23 UTC, an M 5.0 event occurred in the Nias region of Sumatra on coordinates 98’34’E – 0’31’N. The T sequence showed that the ATE threshold was located on this epicentre at 12:48 UTC 26th July… it was sunrise in Nevada !
I like your parking lot analogy, but it reminds me of my wife, she does this every time she goes to the shopping mall… 🙂
Don’t waste your time with these “watches”… step up and start predicting !!
Score: 0115 ptslesterJuly 28, 2020 at 1:26 pm #9317I have noted that there was an increase of 2+ seismic activity in the Canary Islands. On 25th July a total of 8 events occurred in this region, with 7 of them occurring on the Island of La Palma. The last time the Canaries experienced more than 8 events was on 22nd December 2013, when 11 events occurred. this was followed the day after with 17 events, and on 27th December an M 5.1 event occurred.
On 22nd July at 04:56 UTC, the ATE threshold was located West of Tonopah, Nevada on the stated coordinates, and the ATB threshold was located on La Palma Island. On 26th – 27th July at 04:59 UTC, the ATB threshold was located on La Palma Island, and it was sunset on coordinates 155’27’W – 18’55’N, pre seismic M 4.7 Hawaii epicentre of 27th July. It is also worth mentioning, when it is sunrise in Petrolia, California… it is solar noon (high noon) in the Canary Islands !
On 23rd July at 04:58:20 UTC, it was moonset West of Tonopah Nevada, and the moon was located on longitude 140’51’E… Mt Nishino-shima volcano resides on longitude 140’51’E. On 22nd July at 04:58:20 UTC, the SLT (Setting lunar Threshold) was located on Petrolia, California.
Resent seismic correlations…
27th July 17:32:44 UTC – M 5.8 Mindanao, Philippines… -12 hours
27th July 19:34:39 UTC – M 5.5 Alaska Peninsula… -12 hours
28th July 08:03:45 UTC – M 6.1 Alaska peninsula… ActualWhen you combine these times, they calculate as ATE, Moonset, Moonset off the coast of Petrolia, California between longitudes 124’25’W – 124’35’W by latitude 40’20’N.
Score: 015 ptsCanyonratJuly 31, 2020 at 2:34 am #9324Wow Lester, you analysis is very comprehensive. I am in the processes of creating a “system” to track and review past events, to use as a base line for forecasting. What this means, is when the correct energy occurs then new energy should occur in the next area. The location will be determined by the recent quakes in the general area to narrow in on a “center point”. I am also learning to add in solar activity to this. So low solar activity should reduce the magnitude or even the mere chance of a quake going off; The increase of solar activity is the reverse of this.
It does make my head spin.
With these four 4.0s (includes two 3.8’s) going off this morning (2020-07-30) in California… It looks like to me, the first wave from the east (Japan) and not a wave from the north (Alaska) because a wave from the north would have struck the Juan de Fuca first and then progressed east and south. A wave from Japan should strike evenly on the coast of California, then should strike larger inland. For a while I have been watching for signs of said Japanese energy popping off the smallest of quakes mid Pacific, but either this hypothetical energy does not do that, or the reporting agencies don’t want to bother reporting such tiny events 20,000 Leagues Under the Sea. LOL I do expect by 2020-08-02, the energy I am watching for should strike. But with observed four quakes, we can look east of these, and by combining their circles, central Nevada is most likely.
Score: 015 pts115 ptslesterJuly 31, 2020 at 4:53 pm #9327Hey Mark,
There could be any number of reasons or theories why events occurred in Los Angeles on 30th July. A seismic wave originating from Japan is plausible, compared to posts I have seen on Facebook etc. But non of what I have seen, have made a close determination of the epicentre location.I have been monitoring the West coast US for the last month, in relation to correlations with San Francisco. But though my focus has been on San Francisco, I have logged all correlations with this coastline, this includes Bakersfield, Hollister, Los Angeles, and the Petrolia region, California etc. The only locations to receive frequent correlations during this period has been Petrolia, San Francisco and Los Angeles. As regards Los Angeles, I had intention to predict this location, but was feeling less confident of success because I have twice failed with San Francisco. If you notice with several of my recent forecasts, events are occurring after the time has lapsed. I have been experiencing what is known in our trade as “Counselor Syndrome” lol. I fear it is only a short matter of time before San Francisco experiences similar events as have just occurred in Los Angeles. Speaking of Los Angeles, I have posted several correlations in other forecasts during the last 3 weeks, related to this region. The following correlations are extracted from these forecasts…
Mindanao #9249
On 7th July at 04:44:13 UTC, an M 5.1 event occurred in Java, Indonesia… the RLT was located on Los Angeles.
On 7th July at 04:56:25 UTC, an M 5.1 event occurred on the Pacific Antarctic Ridge… the ATE threshold was located on Los Angeles.
On 10th July at 06:29:42 UTC, an M 5.3 event occurred on the Carlsberg Ridge… it was moonrise in Los Angeles.
On 10th July at 17:11:57 UTC, an M 5.0 event occurred in the Tonga Region… 24 hours earlier at 17:11:57 UTC 9th July, the SLT was located on Los Angeles.
On 11th July at 18:58:06 UTC, an M 5.3 event occurred in the South Sandwich Islands…12 hours earlier 06:58:06 UTC,it was moonrise in Los Angeles.
On 12th July at 15:08:54 UTC, an M 5.1 event occurred in Venezuela… 12 hours earlier 03;08:54 UTC, it was sunset in Los Angeles.
On 12th July at 19:58 UTC, the sun was located on longitude 118’03’E… and the SLT was located on Los Angeles.San Francisco #9284
On 11th July at 16:52 UTC, it was moonrise on the pre seismic M 5.4 South Indian Ocean epicentre of 19th July… Moonrise on the pre seismic M 6.1 Andaman Islands epicentre of 17th July… the RLT was located on the pre seismic M 5.0 Eastern Xizang epicentre of 19th July… at 12 hours earlier 04:52 UTC, the ATE threshold was located on Los Angeles.
#9289
On 19th July at 00:00 UTC, Mt Stromboli volcano erupted in Italy… the moon was located on longitude 115’08’E Bali Island Region, Indonesia… and it was sunset in Los Angeles. Note – If you refer to my solar table in Southern Peru forecast, on 29th July the ATE threshold was located on Mt Stromboli volcano, and it was solar noon (high noon) in Los Angeles. When the M 4.2 event occurred in Los Angeles at 11:29:29 UTC 30th July, the ATE threshold was located on Bali Island. At 01:37:08 UTC 31st July, an M 4.2 event occurred in this region !
#9291
On 20th July at 02:32 UTC, Mt Ebeko volcano erupted in the Northern Kuril Islands… it was moonset in Los Angeles.
The difference between my method and other methods used to predict earthquakes, is that mine can be tested. You could employ the same method during the past month, and end up with the same correlations as I have demonstrated here. It is not confirming that these correlations are responsible for the M 4.2 event in Los Angeles. It is a method of pure observation that anyone can try, and therefor come to their own conclusions. The last 4+ event to occur in Los Angeles was on 29th August 2018 at 02:33:28 UTC. This was a notable event for me as I had correctly predicted its occurrence within 11 km’s of epicentre… using this method. I recall including in my last entry, a tacky statement saying ” all Angels should be more vigilant during the next 48 hours”… the event occurred within this period. This is my repute why I can state with confidence that although there is no “direct” proof that my method works… threshold correlations certainly contribute to the final outcome.
In my opinion inclusion of solar activity is a step in the right direction. I apologise that I occasionally forget that you are still learning. Nearly all forecasters here use solar output as a bench mark to determining magnitude of there chosen locations. It is also something Ben has been promoting since 2011… several of his recent SO shows state “The Sun Causes Earthquakes” !. This of course is within the realms of my own method, we are both promoting the sun, but from different ends of the spectrum (pardon the pun).
Now, without wishing to sound like the devils advocate, if I employ your method and suggest to you that a seismic wave originating from the M 5.1 Southeast of Shikoku, Japan “may have” influenced the occurrence of the M 4.2 event in Los Angeles… this would not be an unacceptable comment to make. However, the comment itself would be regarded as assumption or speculation without data to prove otherwise. The Shikoku event occurred on 16th July, and then 14 days later the event occurred in Los Angeles. If Los Angeles was the focus of this wave on this occasion, then it would be prudent to compare this event with the last 4+ event in this region. As stated earlier the last 4+ event to occur in Los Angeles, happened on 29th August 2018. Checking EMSC records for this period, I found that an M 5.0 event occurred in the volcano Islands region at 11:13:09 UTC 23rd August… six days earlier. And on 24th August, an M 5.2 event occurred in Hokkaido at 14:15;56 UTC…five days earlier. The influential periods are different to the recent event in Los Angeles… but two events “did” occur in Japan prior to the 29th August event. This could be considered my proof on this particular occasion, but problems arise when you do the maths. Between 29th August 2018 and 30th July 2020, there have been 198 5+ events in Japan, and only two 4+ events in Los Angeles !!
If we consider my scenario relating to Bali Island and Los Angeles. It suggests that the Los Angeles event “may have” been triggered when the ATB threshold was located on a pre seismic anomaly in the Bali region. However, it could also be argued that how many times the ATE threshold has made contact with Bali Island during the period between the two 4+ Los Angeles events… yet as stated only two have occurred. However, in my case it is a combination of different elements working together, but the prime element with all contacts, is the sun itself.
You recently posted a link to a water tank demonstration to relay similar influences occurring beneath the earths crust, therefor simulating seismic wave theory. I can not provide a similar link to explain why my correlation theory may be influencing seismic activity, but I can try and explain it with an analogy. When we were youngsters, I imagine that most of use would have scorched a hole through a piece of paper, using a magnifying glass and the sun. In order to achieve this, the glass had to be at the right focal distance from the paper (orbital distance), and at the right angle to sun to achieve optimal focal point. If everything is placed in the correct position, we could say for arguments sake that it takes 60 seconds to scorch a hole through the paper. Now what would happen if we only held the glass in position over the paper for 5 seconds ?, you would infuse the paper with an intense burst of heat, which would dissipate the moment you removed the glass. But imagine if the paper was able to retain this heat, and you gave it a 5 second burst every two days. With each attempt you would be weakening its molecular structure, and after 12 days it would succumb to the effects of the heat. This is actually a poor analogy, but if you imagine different correlating magnitude events represent different periods of time the glass is over the paper. So if several influential events had already contributed their particular bursts of energy on Los Angeles, it may only need a short 4.2 burst from Bali to achieve the outcome !. This too is speculative, but if a positive result is forthcoming from my Sumatra forecast… it would help to shed more light on this analogy.
Always a good thing to explore different theories, but influence from a 5.1 event 14 days earlier, is a little difficult to comprehend !
Score: 015 ptsCanyonratAugust 1, 2020 at 12:51 am #9331Now what would happen if we only held the glass in position over the paper for 5 seconds ?, you would infuse the paper with an intense burst of heat, which would dissipate the moment you removed the glass. But imagine if the paper was able to retain this heat, and you gave it a 5 second burst every two days. With each attempt you would be weakening its molecular structure, and after 12 days it would succumb to the effects of the heat.
This is a very good analogy. Dutch mentions this “type” of thing as priming or charging. If you keep having large quakes near by, and nothing or almost nothing occurs “down stream” from these events, then the energy or pressure is building. Eventually a larger quake will occur and then “down stream” a larger quake could occur, even larger then the first one.
With my current hypothesis; if these 4.0s in California are part of this wave energy from Japan, the 4.0’s would be an early and weaker portion of this set of waves with a stronger sets of wave behind it. So if a larger quake occurs inland then with only some certainty these 4.0s are related. Now my method can not show me where this possible larger quake/s could occur, but your method might be able to point out some locations. I do see collaborations between all of us in the future, especially for the bigger quakes. You and I have done this already. We ask some one to look at an area and toss in their assessment. A few months back about 4 of us had forecasts for the area of Ridgecrest California to Santa Barbara California that over lapped in location and size and time. But NOTHING happened…which for me was really disappointing. If something had happened then that would have been very significant for all of our methods.
But being a forecaster is a lonely endeavor and success only happens after a long journey through fields of failures. Then repeat. LOL
Score: 0115 ptslesterAugust 1, 2020 at 12:36 pm #9335This eruption coincides with sunset in Petrolia, California !
On 1st Aug at 08:25:27 UTC, an M 5.1 event occurred in Southern Peru… at “12 hours” earlier 20:25:27 UTC, the sun was located on longitude 124’46’W !
I don’t like what USGS has done with its map display. You can’t instantly zoom to different regions, and why would they display time as UTC + 1 hour… playing havoc with my math’s !
Score: 0115 ptslesterAugust 1, 2020 at 5:14 pm #9336I have found this subject a lonely endeavour for years. Go into a pub in England and start talking about earthquakes, and the place is empty within 5 minutes. I went for surgery last year, and whilst they were prepping me on the table, nerves kicked in and I started talking about earthquakes. Pretty sure the anaesthetist increased the rate of gas being supplied… 🙂
I noted that you past comment in another post, about others being better at this than you. Firstly, people predict earthquakes for only two reasons… entertainment or the pursuit of an answer to the earthquake problem. If I wanted to follow the entertainment route, I would simply learn which areas have history of frequent significant activity… like you would learn the form of horses at the race track. Then predict multiple locations for a week… and get on with my normal life. This site also has the appeal that you have a chance to win a monetary prize. Secondly, in your case, you have a 4.8 in Syria to your name, multiple failures, and an occasional habit of trying to explain yourself when said failures do occur. But apart from this, I regard you as one of the best forecasters here. You have shown a true passion for this subject. Your posts indicate that you are seriously trying to work out what is going on. And on occasion, it has taken me longer to read and understand said posts, than it has to read my morning paper… these are the qualities befitting a true earthquake forecaster.
Don’t worry about failures because this is part of the learning process. And don’t delude yourself about group collaboration, we have tried this here before… it didn’t work !
As you said, this is a lonely endeavour, but I take heart that we are in good company… Isaac Newton didn’t have any friends either 🙂
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