Hello East Coast USA 5.1

[Karma: 15 pts]

Canyonrat

August 9, 2020 at 8:27 pm #9377

Observed event of discussion: USGS M 5.1 – 4 km SE of Sparta, North Carolina 2020-08-09 12:07:37 (UTC) 36.476°N 81.093°W 3.7 km depth

Observed and missed precursor to the 5.1: CAN_EQ Event ID 20200725.0305004 Date/Time (UTC) 2020-07-25 03:05:25 Magnitude 5.3 Coordinates 62.223N, 124.502W Depth (km) 5.6 Description 125 km S of Wrigley, NT

Observed precursor to the 5.1: USGS M 5.1 – 79 km SW of Niquero, Cuba 2020-07-24 19:11:47 (UTC) 19.499°N 78.069°W 10.2 km depth

Comments: I had a watch that ended 6 weeks prior to this 5.1…see below.

Canyonrat
June 21, 2020 at 6:40 pm #9048

Forecast: M 3.2 to 4.2 2020-06-22 to 2020-06-27 ( 37° 1’38.27″N 81°55’28.08″W ) 160km/100mls radius depth less then 70km.

Observed: M 4.2 – 9 km NW of Perry, Oklahoma 2020-06-21 03:15:41 (UTC) 36.359°N 97.359°W 7.8 km depth. Just struck today. Likely energy from (part of the wave) M 4.9 – 34 km SE of Mina, Nevada 2020-06-19 20:42:21 (UTC) 38.170°N 117.835°W 6.5 km depth, and that energy is likely from M 4.5 – 145 km WSW of Pistol River, Oregon 2020-06-17 21:08:09 (UTC) 41.815°N 126.041°W 21.7 km depth.

Comments: This 3.2-4.2 forecast covers parts of these states :Virginia, West Virginia, Kentucky, Tennessee, and North Carolina. The 4.2 that struck Oklahoma was in the middle of a wide spread oil drilling area. My forecast center spot location is a massive pit mine. But my guess is it will strike near a mine, oil drilling, or pit mine. Also my forecast area has few to zero historical quakes.

Todays 5.1 struck 96km/59mls SE of my above mentioned center point for a 3.2-4.2 in an area very rare for quakes.

Of note: I had a watch ( #9309 ) for unexpected 5.5 – 6.5 activity 200mls+ inland from the Pacific Coast of North America but I do not consider that it pass the east edge of the Rocky Mountains; also it should have struck by 2020-08-02. I don’t think todays 5.1 is related to this unexpected 5.5p6.5 watch energy.

END

Comments: Todays 5.1 and the surrounding quakes show moment tensor data that does not correspond (energy/direction) to each other. How ever the 5.1 event quake does show equal energy pushing SW and NE. The next logical step for this energy would be Eastern New York or more likely Montreal Canada area based upon about ten 4.5+ quakes striking this region in the last 40 years and I prior 5.7 that struck in Virginia on 2011-08-23.

Future forecast: (Preliminary) I will place a watch/forecast for and “infill quake” for 5.0ish activity from 2020-08-09 to 2020-09-06 (4 weeks) only because these quakes seem widely spread on time and distance, center point will be the Sandy Lake region Canada which is mostly a summer resort area 53° 1’7.78″N 93°12’46.13″W with a large and wide watch area of 600km/374mls but I will only count a success at 160km/100mls or less form center point. This whole wide area very rarely has quakes.

Future forecast: (Preliminary) 3.5 – 4.5 from 2020-08-16 to 2020-08-23 46°17’25.87″N 72°35’53.66″W 320km/200mls radius.

Reference website for Canadian quakes: https://earthquakescanada.nrcan.gc.ca/recent/maps-cartes/index-en.php?tpl_region=canada#events

Score: 0

[Karma: 15 pts]

Canyonrat

August 9, 2020 at 8:33 pm #9378

Wow, I posted this, could see it, but it was not showing on Forecasts.

New information regarding 5.1 today.

I spoke with our property Manager in Winston-Salem North Carolina, located about 80km/50mls from the small out break of quakes. She was awoken by the big one. So in reference to my 6 week old forecast I asked her about mines in the area of the 5.1. She said, “wow, there are thousands, funny you should ask.” I then did some research and found a few sources all stating about 4000 mines west of HWY 77 in North Carolina.

I will be back on in a few hours to make a few official forecasts based on this event.

Score: 0

[Karma: 15 pts]

Canyonrat

August 13, 2020 at 4:49 pm #9400

PLEASE NOTE THAT THIS FORECAST IS NOT POSTING AS A NEW TOPIC.

I WILL TRY TO REPOST IT IN A FEW HOURS.

This will be what is called an “in-fill quake” or a quake filling the “silent zone”.

2020-08-09 to 2020–09-06 4.4 to 5.4 Lake Winnipeg, Canada 52°52’12.94″N 98° 4’4.16″W 600km/375mls radius no deeper then 70km.

Observed quakes:

(A) CAN-EQ Event ID 20200725.0305013 2020-07-25 03:05:25 (UTC) Magnitude 5.3 125 km S of Wrigley, NT 62.218N 124.476W Depth 5km

(B) USGS M 5.1 – 4 km SE of Sparta, North Carolina 2020-08-09 12:07:37 (UTC)36.476°N 81.094°W7.6 km depth

(C) USGS M 4.2 – 13 km WSW of Stanley, Idaho 2020-08-08 02:11:30 (UTC) 44.174°N 115.091°W 10.0 km depth

(D) USGS M 4.0 – Northwest Territories, Canada 2020-08-13 02:34:17 (UTC) 62.237°N 124.434°W 10.0 km depth

Notes: My thinking is that quake (B) is related to quake (A) and that the energy ran strait through Canada and to North Carolina. Quake (C) helps to define the location of my forecast. Quake (D) is part of the “infill” energy. My wide time frame is based on the 16 days between quakes (A) & (B). My wide radius is because there has only been about ten quakes in the last one hundred years 3.9 to 4.3 in this forecast area, so it is difficult to determine where this quake could strike. If a 4.4 or greater occurs, it will be the largest quake in the area ever, and I will call that a successful forecast. Also note that for some reason the USGS only reports a few of the Canadian quakes, and the Canadian Department of Natural Resource’s shows a lot of seismic activity (see link below).

Resource: https://earthquakescanada.nrcan.gc.ca/recent/maps-cartes/index-en.php?tpl_region=canada#events

Score: 0

[Karma: 15 pts]

Canyonrat

August 24, 2020 at 7:45 am #9430

We have energy! It is important. I am just back from two weeks of camping with the entire family. Terrible for me as I only drove every day into town to “attempt” to complete a business deal. Sucks rotten eggs.

This quake is amazing!

Observed: M 3.2 – 2 km SSE of Detroit Beach, Michigan 2020-08-21 22:55:09 (UTC)41.913°N 83.318°W 9.2 km depth (93 prior quakes in this greater area at 3.0M+ in the last 100 years), this quake is what I am looking for and I expect more energy to occur. This quake is 159km/98mls from the line between what captured my attention.

Observed end point quakes:

(M 5.1 – 4 km SE of Sparta, North Carolina 2020-08-09 12:07:37 (UTC) 36.476°N 81.094°W 7.6 km depth)

And the NOT REPORTED BY THE USGS but by the Canadians (Event ID 20200725.0305013 (UTC) 2020-07-25 03:05:25 M 5.3 ( 62.218N 124.476W ) Depth 5.0km Description 125 km S of Wrigley, NT) AND.

Score: 0

[Karma: 15 pts]

Canyonrat

August 24, 2020 at 7:47 am #9431

Sorry for the quirks, just posting late at night.

Score: 0

[Karma: 15 pts]

Canyonrat

August 27, 2020 at 10:53 pm #9446

Tow quakes, in uncommon areas where few quakes occur. Just out side of my radius and still weaker then I expected, but there is still time in my window.

Both are only on the Canadian feed, not USGS.

Event ID
20200826.2155001
Date/Time (UTC)
2020-08-26 21:55:02
Magnitude
2.0
Coordinates
51.194N, 88.603W
Depth (km)
5.0
Description
116 km E from Pickle Lake, ON

Event ID
20200818.1748001
Date/Time (UTC)
2020-08-18 17:48:16
Magnitude
1.8
Coordinates
49.222N, 91.767W
Depth (km)
2.0
Description
54 km N from Atikokan, ON

Score: 0