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    Posted in: Make A Forecast  
  • 37 pts
    HookEcho
    July 23, 2017 at 11:27 pm #2231

    Location:Vanuatu NW to PNG. [see map]
    Potential Magnitude:M5.5 – M7.0
    Forecast Duration: 48 hours, begin 22:57:47 UTC Sunday, July 23, 2017
    Alert Map: https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B83EkoitOiKQZFM2anlEaEpDa0E/view?usp=sharing
    Potential seismic teleconnection to an earlier Japan event, which was M5.6.
    https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us2000a02t#executive

    Factors:
    Very deep seismic shock for this region: M4.3 – Vanuatu region 2017-07-23 19:12:17 UTC at a depth of 637.1 km
    New Moon
    Note: Deep for Vanuatu. Do not know if the thermal energy will find and run up the usual NW channels along the fault leading up to shallow or become trapped.

    Score: 0
    37 pts
    HookEcho
    July 24, 2017 at 4:14 am #2234

    A well suited and better teleconnection candidate:
    M4.5 – 42km WNW of Tenno, Japan 2017-07-24 02:15:01 UTC at a depth of 18.8 km
    .2 of a magnitude difference,the Vanuatu event set the magnitude range for Japan. However, it does not alter this forecast.
    The energy is headed to the NW, with M4.8 – 90km WNW of Panguna, Papua New Guinea 2017-07-23 23:26:52 UTC at a depth of 169.9 km a few hours later.

    Score: 0
    37 pts
    HookEcho
    July 24, 2017 at 5:53 am #2236

    derp. sigh.

    • This reply was modified 7 years, 5 months ago by HookEcho.
    Score: 0
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