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15 ptsCanyonratAugust 13, 2020 at 6:42 am #9391
The Geysers went of today with an uncommon 3.9 quake, so now I look for M1.5 plus off shore so we should expect a 4.9 to 5.4 off shore. Following that we should see a similar sized quake in the bay area of San Francisco a few days later. However, I also see the energy headed into Canada and then turning south east toward the east coast, thus the 5.1 in North Carolina. Which a few weeks earlier I was looking for a quake in that area.
Prior forecast start: June 21, 2020 at 6:40 pm #9048
Forecast: M 3.2 to 4.2 2020-06-22 to 2020-06-27 ( 37° 1’38.27″N 81°55’28.08″W ) 160km/100mls radius depth less then 70km.
Observed: M 4.2 – 9 km NW of Perry, Oklahoma 2020-06-21 03:15:41 (UTC) 36.359°N 97.359°W 7.8 km depth. Just struck today. Likely energy from (part of the wave) M 4.9 – 34 km SE of Mina, Nevada 2020-06-19 20:42:21 (UTC) 38.170°N 117.835°W 6.5 km depth, and that energy is likely from M 4.5 – 145 km WSW of Pistol River, Oregon 2020-06-17 21:08:09 (UTC) 41.815°N 126.041°W 21.7 km depth.
Comments: This 3.2-4.2 forecast covers parts of these states :Virginia, West Virginia, Kentucky, Tennessee, and North Carolina. The 4.2 that struck Oklahoma was in the middle of a wide spread oil drilling area. My forecast center spot location is a massive pit mine. But my guess is it will strike near a mine, oil drilling, or pit mine. Also my forecast area has few to zero historical quakes.
Prior Forecast Stop: June 2020
Interpretation: I think that we are not in a normal cycle and need to be looking very widely at North America… The most difficult area to forecast quakes. This should only last for another week to three weeks.
New Info: What I researched reveals that there are over 4000+ mines west of Highway 77 in the state of North Carolina. I had no idea there were so many until I contacted “my people” in North Carolina after this quake. So my forecast of “mines” was correct.
My new public hypothesis: There is a temporary change that has occurred and we see quakes heading from Alaska into Canada and then turning south east and striking the east coast of the USA. To confirm this I am watching for a 5.0+ to strike near Lake Winnipeg Canada in the next few days. This would be an in-fill quake in the silent zone and a super rare quake. Just following my methodology.
Back to California:
Observed: M 3.9 – 1km NNE of The Geysers, CA 2020-08-12 11:45:43 (UTC) 38.787°N 122.749°W 4.1 km depth
Forecast: M 4.9 to 5.9 off shore Juan de Fuca 2020-08-13 to 2020-08-20 southern half.
Side note: I will be camping with family August 16 to August 23 at Lake Tahoe . If anything super big occurs, I will rush into South Tahoe, enjoy free drinks and wi-fi at a casino and report. Earth quake forecasting can be at least a little extravagant. Perhaps I will bring my smoking jacket. LOL I actually own a smoking jacket BTW. I just smoke a clove cigarette (mini cigar in the USA because children smoke flavored cigarettes but not mini flavored cigars LOL LOL LOL) perhaps 6 times per year…
Score: 015 ptsCanyonratAugust 13, 2020 at 7:02 am #9394Wow, energy is transferring quickly.
Observed:
emsc-csem M4.0 NORTHWEST TERRITORIES, CANADA 2020-08-13 02:34:17.5 (UTC) 62.24 N 124.43 W Depth 10 km
USGS M2.8 – 100 km SW of Yellowknife, Canada 2020-08-13 02:33:38 (UTC) 61.861°N 115.817°W Depth 14.9 km
Watch south east of this energy.
Score: 015 ptsCanyonratAugust 13, 2020 at 7:21 am #9396FYI:”
I am generally telling others that forecasting in North America and including the rest of the southern Americas that, we need to add 7 to 14 days to our forecast windows. My above forecast is a precursor or “tell tail” forecast, not something I will post as a success. But based on what happens, then I will forecast the next event, but with a 3 or 4 week window. But this type of wide windowed forecasting will soon stop, it is just temporary based on what I am observing across the Pacific at this time.
Score: 015 pts15 ptsCanyonratAugust 31, 2020 at 6:18 pm #9455This is a forecast post I just made and not related to the above info. It just will not post for some reason. Mark
August 31, 2020 at 5:55 pm #9453
Juan de Fuca 7.5 2020-08-30 to 2020-09-06
Observed: Pending Solar Polar flip. Planetary decrease in 5.0+ quakes last 3 days. Last several weeks in increase in “end” quakes along the North and South Atlantic ridge area. Most activity is currently in North and South America. The 6.5 from Aug. 30 is an indicator that a large amount of energy has worked it’s way through S. America and it is likely releaved of pressure. Juan de Fuca has been noticeably quiet the last few months with only under 5.5 energy and it is my thinking that pressure has built up. And the P.N.S.N. Tremor Map (see link below) has been getting very quiet over the last few weeks, which can mean pressure building or no pressure… However, when it becomes very active, we often see larger quakes hundreds of miles away. Also as I type this a 6.2 went off mid Indian Ocean, which indicates pressure has been released on the western islands (Sumatra Java area).
M 6.5 – central Mid-Atlantic Ridge 2020-08-30 21:20:28 (UTC) 0.870°N 29.705°W 10.0 km depth
M 6.2 – Chagos Archipelago region 2020-08-31 17:24:04 (UTC) 4.069°S 70.251°E 10.0 km depth
Forecast: 6.9 to 7.9 Juan de Fuca entire Plate and out around the plate 80km/50mls all directions 2020-08-31 to 2020-09-06 less then 70km depth.
Note: Larger quakes are not my forecasting specialty, and they are more difficult to forecast
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