Lester: April 12 2020 – Western Sumatra

[Karma: 115 pts]

lester

April 12, 2020 at 11:32 pm #8690

Location: Mentawai Basin, Western Sumatra, Indonesia … 99’33’E – 0’50’S

Magnitude: 5.0 – 6.3

Margin: 350 Radial kilometres

Period: From 23:30 UTC April 12, for 3 days

Experiment; At 21:50 UTC, Mt Klyuchevskoy volcano erupted in Kamchatka. The RLT threshold was located on the M 5.0 Crete, Greece epicentre of 11th April… and the moon was located on longitude 99’33’E. At 22:05 UTC, Mt Kuchinoerabu-Jima Volcano erupted in Ryukyu Islands, Japan. The SLT threshold was located on the M 7.5 Kuril Islands epicentre of 25th March… and the ATB threshold was located on 99’33’E – 0’50’S

Thank you

Score: 0

[Karma: 15 pts]

Canyonrat

April 14, 2020 at 6:32 am #8695

My observational seismic forecasting shows a multiple event near 1°59’4.66″S 99°24’35.53″E located just south of Pulau Karangmajat in the M 5.3+ range but could easily be 6.3 range in the next 1-4 day. Don’t think the first strike is the only strike in this area. Give 3 days after the first strike for a second strike.

We need to get better at this soon. I dread the day, I see a forecast of mine that never gets warned to the public, and many many people die, and I think this will happen before a forecast of mine goes “official”. I do not yet know all the volcanoes in this area, LOL, but do know this area can get dangerous quick.

Score: 0

[Karma: 15 pts]

Canyonrat

April 14, 2020 at 7:44 am #8696

So I just jumped in to learn and observe how my techniques match, overlap, disagree with yours, yours disagree with mine.

Also, so I don’t want to forget how I came to my FIRST double strike forecast, but ALL credit goes to Lester as I was not in anyway looking on this side of the planet.

Observed:

These four are close in proximity.

M 4.4 – 118km SSW of Kotaagung, Indonesia 2020-03-26 09:23:35 (UTC) 6.519°S 104.305°E 10.0 km depth
M 4.3 – 98km SSW of Bengkulu, Indonesia 2020-03-26 19:49:10 (UTC) 4.634°S 101.955°E 35.0 km depth

M 4.4 – 82km WNW of Karangbolong, Indonesia 2020-04-05 04:31:06 (UTC) 6.353°S 104.957°E 55.8 km depth
M 4.9 – 141km W of Kuripan, Indonesia 2020-04-05 22:42:53 (UTC) 5.276°S 102.514°E 35.0 km depth

These two are north of the first four by

M 5.0 – 79km WNW of Sinabang, Indonesia 2020-04-06 19:20:27 (UTC) 2.825°N 95.753°E 35.0 km depth
M 4.2 – 53km SSW of Sinabang, Indonesia 2020-04-07 15:16:54 (UTC) 2.037°N 96.196°E 10.0 km depth

From this we see increasing energy at varied depth. I conclude we will see M 5.2 followed by another quake +/- .4 .

My center point is located 672km/417mls south of the 5.0 and 507km/315mls north of the 4.9.

Lester’s center point is located 580km/360mls south of the 5.0 and 593km/368mls north of the 4.9.

Lester’s forecast point is more centered, both are close. Somewhere close too our two areas a larger quake should strike followed in 1 to 3 days with a quake between 4.8 and 5.6.

Score: 0

[Karma: 15 pts]

Canyonrat

April 14, 2020 at 7:49 am #8697

These two are north of the first four by 1175km/730mls.

Score: 0

[Karma: 115 pts]

lester

April 21, 2020 at 2:43 pm #8752

Adjustment to forecast…

Changing coordinates to 100’18’E – 4’14’S South of Pagai-Selatan Island

Resetting magnitude range as 5.5 – 6.8

Continuing this forecast for 5 days from 15:00 UTC April 21

Thank you

Score: 0

[Karma: 115 pts]

lester

April 28, 2020 at 11:00 am #8780

Continuing this forecast for 5 days from 11:00 UTC April 28

Thank you

Score: 0