-
115 ptslesterApril 16, 2020 at 10:57 pm #8726
Location: South of Santa Rosa, San Francisco bay Area … 122’45’W – 38’05’N
Magnitude: 4.0 – 5.0 (more likely 3+, but finger trembled over 3 key, cos never used this for mag before !)
Margin: 300 radial Kilometres
Period: From 23:00 UTC 16th April
Note – this forecast also includes possible eruptive event from Mt Stromboli volcano, Italy
Thank you
Score: 015 ptsCanyonratApril 19, 2020 at 5:16 pm #8733Lester, thank you. North America’s seismic activity, 99% of the time, is slower to occur and smaller then it should be. As Dutch says, it is at the end of the seismic stream…which begins with the area north of New Zealand. Right now North America is buzzing with activity, most I have seen in my two years at this. But during the calmer periods I work at forecasting the smaller quakes, and hone in on areas and try to get it down to a 20 mile radius. Why? So that I can build trust through accuracy so that when I do forecast a larger quake, people will have confidence in the forecast. It’ not about me, it’s about a forecast system. My system might not work for that 1%, the big events window. I think we need several systems. Systems that can be patched together to create something greater then the sum of the parts.
This post has received 1 vote up.Score: 1115 ptslesterApril 19, 2020 at 11:41 pm #8742I am not mocking you if that’s what you are thinking. I don’t predict 3’s because the scientific community is not interested in anything lower than 5+… and it is these people that we have to convince. Without their backing, the only people you will build trust with are your friends and family. I respect the fact that you work the smaller quakes, and logic dictates that if you find method for detecting low magnitude events, then it should work with the high mag ones too. I am an old hand at this, I may jest if I think you are going to get a few rings in your morning coffee, but I know the danger signs to watch for if I am focused in one region. I successfully predicted a 4.5 event in Los Angeles last year, 10 miles from epicentre. I even posted a warning for Angeleans to be more vigilant during a 48 hour period (sure somebody here remembers !)… I focused on this region because I have a good friend living there. It is a question of how many data sets you can correlate to a particular region, which in turn relates to the level of severity… this of course is my methodology. I have had a little success with earthquakes “and” volcanoes since you joined us. I am tracing the propagation pattern between volcanic eruptions, and correlating them with post seismic events… this should be registering that I have a certain “skill factor”, with you by now !
This forecast is for San Francisco and Mt Stromboli volcano, but at 07:00 UTC today, Mt Etna volcano erupted. Now considering I am using a map model that places Stromboli and Etna 4mm apart, I think I was pretty darn close with my determination. This event also means I have made a mental note to predict both volcanoes together next time. The point is, I determined influence from Stromboli would bypass Reykjanes and head for San Francisco. In reality, Reykjanes experienced two 4.5 events events on 16th April, and a 4.5 ,plus 5.0 on 17th April. Ironically, the 5.0 event occurred at 12:05:07 UTC, when the ATE threshold was located on Mt Anak Krakatau volcano. You also have to take into account, my determination of these occurrences was posted on 15th April, in your 6+ help thread. If I am correct in assuming that influence ended at Reykjanes, then San Francisco may be in the clear… it is only by monitoring the data during the next few days, that I will know for sure ! I was answering my friend Marco in my Hokkaido forecast, when the 6.4 Honshu event occurred. He prompted me to renew my prediction, and I declined because the data didn’t support Hokkaido… perhaps this could be seen as “building trust” with your fellow forecasters !
On 2nd June 2018, a determination of a possible seismic event occurring in Guatemala was made, it was a joint effort, and an experiment to see if differing methods could come to the same conclusion. As part of my analysis, I noted a different kind of contact in the ACE data, and commented that it was a “stand alone” signal. On 4th June, a 5.2 event occurred and of course a very satisfying result for team work. It was only a short while later that I checked volcanoes online, and discovered Fuego Volcano in Guatemala had erupted the day before. Well, I came here on the forum and began to praise myself for determining the “stand alone” signal was a pre eruption precursor, and in my own inevitable way, started jesting about our result. It was later that I saw the true reality of our success on TV, 190 people killed, 250+ missing presumed dead. I had never felt so ashamed, and it taught me a real life lesson. I may jest occasionally, but don’t think for a minute that I don’t take this subject seriously !!
I may have read you wrong here, but big or small they are all worthy pursuits. Who holds the record for making the most mistakes on this site ?… Lester 🙂
Score: 0115 pts115 pts15 ptsCanyonratMay 14, 2020 at 1:48 am #8822I am seeing something new. Many quakes at 3 to 0 KM depth in North America, Japan, and that lone super rare quake M 3.8 – 146km E of Egvekinot, Russia 2020-05-13 07:35:23 (UTC) 66.188°N 175.927°W 2.8km depth. That area has only experienced a dozen quakes in 115 years. I will guess that the Bay Area quake you are watching for will come in very shallow, maybe 2KM?
So the rare Canadian quake I pointed out (took me an hour to find official reporting) and then that rare Russian quake mentioned above, leads me to think we will see more “surprise” quakes in North America in the M 3.4 to 5.4, and shallow, no deeper then 9KM.
Then we see this Bay Area quake M 2.6 – 8km WSW of Mountain House, CA 2020-05-14 00:00:15 (UTC) 37.755°N 121.632°W -0.1km depth minutes ago…something is a foot. (This 2.6 was not near Mount Diablo Ancient Volcano located about 20 miles NW.)
This post has received 1 vote up.Score: 115 ptsCanyonratMay 14, 2020 at 1:56 am #8823If we see a quake strike in this area 33°44’41.64″N 135° 9’34.84″W then I might get on the telephone and start ringing/calling (LOL) the police and fire departments. A quake in this general area would support your forecast very strongly from an observation forecasting perspective. It would also support my Northern California forecast.
Score: 015 pts15 ptsCanyonratMay 14, 2020 at 2:38 am #8825Lester: April 16 2020 – San Francisco / Mt Stromboli Volcano
Lester, from my heart, thank you for writing that. My apologies for for just now noticing it and reading, it after my three above posts in this thread. I too take this seriously, and I too fear not being wrong, but being right and not have helped even one person. I even forecast “calm” as in two weeks ago for N America. The forecasting of “calm”/”all clear” is probably as important and forecasting the “big one”. I follow my method and what it indicates I post it. And like you, I do this to learn and build trust in the method. I am really new at this and learning so much, but have had several small magnitude successes with in 50 miles, one was under 10 miles, so I felt confident enough to join in on quakewatch.
Onto a tangent…
Set your coffee/tea cup down and then read on. Our property realtor with whom we have done many deals, told me a story. She said that years ago when she was new at selling property, she and a dozen other realtors got together, formed a realtor group, and awarded each other awards, that they then used those awards in their advertising.
Now, after you are finished laughing…
Perhaps we could do something like what they did, for seismic forecasting. But be REAL about it. Form a group. Then as each of us develops a record of forecast “hits”, then this group could issue an award or certificate, etc. Then that “certificate/award” could be used to give the recipient some “credibility” so when they see the “big one”, people might listen to them. People being the media who would get the information out to the masses. AND all that said, we forecasters are most certainly on the fringe of this Seismic/geologic science, and I bet each of us are a bit “quirky”/”nerdy”, but we are also on the front edge of breaking into new scientific territory. And Ben might already be thinking this idea I propose by setting up quakewatch. And I am most certainly nowhere near the point of calling the media regarding one of my forecasts.
On a side note, I will soon post my review/critique of my many misses last month, and it reveals a few “turd plops” on the floor (LOL), and some eyebrow raising observations that shows my technique just needs refinement, but is useful and functional. I always keep in mind the 1 in 6,000,000 to 1 in 120,000,000 ratio we are up against.
Score: 0115 ptslesterMay 17, 2020 at 12:48 am #8863Recent seismic correlations…
15th May 15:18:53 UTC – M 5.1 Kermadec Islands = Moon located on longitude 122’59’W
16th May 03:15:47 UTC – M 5.9 Vanuatu = Sunset in San Francisco Bay Area on forecast coordinates
Forecast has lapsed with 6 days remaining… waiting for ACE contact before proceeding !
Score: 015 pts115 ptslesterMay 17, 2020 at 8:08 pm #8870Hey Mark, sorry for the delay in responding to your main post above, but sometimes we have to deal with “real world” priorities, before time is available for constructive conversation… sure you understand.
I have taken on board what you have said and proposed, but let me ask you this question… how did you feel when you realised a 6.5 event had occurred in Nevada on Friday ?. Usually, first response is to not take your eyes off the number on your computer screen for a few seconds, your brain is trying to accept such a significant magnitude figure event has occurred. Then you start to think; why did I not see signs that this was coming, and you get this sinking feeling that all your seemingly relevant posts on the forum, suddenly become trivial and inconsequential in comparison. However, a short time later, you don’t feel as bad when you realise that several other members working US mainland locations, obviously didn’t see it coming either. Counselor “unofficially” being the exception of course, and I am sure his cat would not have needed the assistance of a cat flap, to leave the house when he awoke Friday morning… if he has one !
The point I am trying to make is that, no matter what kind of methodology was employed… we “all” missed a 6.5 in Nevada. However, and there is always a “however”, this event was not wasted, because it has taught us all a crucial lesson… we are STILL a long way off getting this right. I can fully appreciate your enthusiasm, passion and drive to want to get the job done… because you remind me of “me” when I first got into the quake scene. But the reality is, until we can sustain at least a 70% success rate, even as a group, it would not be practical to assume we could give pre seismic forecasts or warnings to others. And my advice, forget any notions of contacting the media. They have been contacted by people in the past, who claim god warned them in a dream pof impending seismic destruction, or others who have reported seeing the west coast US in their tea leaves… you would not be entertained by them for one minute !
As you have stated yourself, you are still relatively new to this subject, and I can see for myself that you show a lot of promise in getting somewhere with this. But I also believe that this is dependant on which direction you take with respect to methodology. By no means do I wish to sound critical or discouraging, but as best I can to follow your forecasts, I struggle because there is no “data” to back up your determinations. It may be because you have not been here long enough for me to appreciate your style, but wording like “in-fill quake” and “something happened at A, so seismic history shows possibility of something happening at B”. If this style of forecasting has worked for you in the past, then that is a good thing. But if you are talking about approaching establishments like the media in the future… they would regard this as “making assumptions”… because you have not presented credible hard data !
No disrespect intended, and I am always here with help or advice if you need it (if you are still talking to me lol), and Counselor is back on the scene, so I am sure he has tips for you too. As for your proposal, if there is improvement in forecast results in the future, I for one would like to review this idea again !
Score: 0115 ptslesterMay 22, 2020 at 11:28 pm #8900On 22nd May at 02:38 UTC, Mt Ebeko volcano erupted in the Northern Kuril Islands… the SLT was located in the San Francisco Bay Area, south of Santa Rosa. Later this day at 18:11 UTC, Mt Ebeko volcano erupted for a second time… it was sunset on Mt Stromboli volcano in Italy !
Continuing this forecast for 6 days from 23:30 UTC May 22
Thank you
Score: 015 pts115 ptslesterMay 27, 2020 at 12:52 pm #8937A significant aspect change occurred in the ACE Mag data at 10:56 UTC 27th May… Phi level dropped and Bx trace changed places with By !
The ATB threshold (Astronomical Twilight Begins) was located in the San Francisco Bay area at this time, predominantly south of Santa Rosa… and the Sun was located on longitude 15’19’E… i.e. Solar Noon (high noon) on Mt Stromboli volcano !
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/ace-real-time-solar-wind
Score: 0115 pts115 ptslesterMay 27, 2020 at 5:18 pm #8940An analysis for Ferndale, Petrolia, and San Francisco, California… based on solar / lunar relations with Mt Sakurajima volcano in Kyushu, Japan.
The following table represent Sunrise (left) and Sunset (right) at Mt Sakurajima volcano, and the suns longitude at each time and date.
20th May 20:18 UTC – 125’21’W ……………….. 10:10 UTC – 26’39’E
21st May 20:17 UTC – 125’06’W ……………….. 10:11 UTC – 26’25’E
22nd May 20:17 UTC – 125’04’W ……………….. 10:12 UTC – 26’11’E
23rd May 20:16 UTC – 124’47’W ……………….. 10:12 UTC – 26’12’E
24th May 20:16 UTC – 124’46’W ……………….. 10:13 UTC – 25’59’E
25th May 20:15 UTC – 124’29’W ……………….. 10:13 UTC – 26’00’E
26th May 20:15 UTC – 124’27’W ……………….. 10:14 UTC – 25’47’E
27th May 20:15 UTC – 124’26’W ……………….. 10:15 UTC – 25’34’E
28th May 20:14 UTC – 124’09’W ……………….. 10:15 UTC – 25’35’E
29th May 20:14 UTC – 124’07’W ……………….. 10:16 UTC – 25’22’E
30th May 20:14 UTC – 124’04’W ……………….. 10:16 UTC – 25’25’E
31st May 20:13 UTC – 123’47’W ……………….. 10:17 UTC – 25’12’EFrom 1st may to the time of this post, Mt Sakurajima volcano has erupted and exploded on 25 occasions. From the table displayed, you can see that the longitude position of the sun, with respect to sunrise / sunset on Mt Sakurajima volcano, relates primarily to Crete, Greece and the West coast US. During the month of May (to the present) there have been a total of eight 5+ events in Crete. The latest one occurred at 01:09:53 UTC 27th May on coordinates 25’38’E – 34’10’N. This location would correlate with the suns longitude positions (Solar noon) between 26th – 30th May. The towns of Ferndale and Petrolia, California, reside on longitudes 124’15’W – 124’17’W respectively. However, any potential activity on the West coast US, would be dependant on determining correlating influence i.e. is Mt Sakurajima volcano influencing other seismic activity ?
On 27th May at 07:09:10 UTC, an M 6.1 event occurred in Port Vila, Vanuatu. The moon was located on longitude 130’33’E at this time… Mt Sakurajima volcano resides on longitude 130’39’E. On 16th May at 03:15:43 UTC, an M 5.9 event occurred north of Port Villa, Vanuatu. At this time, it was sunrise on coordinates 25’38’E – 34’10’N Crete Greece (as stated above)… the sun was located on longitude 130’10’E… and sunset occurred in the San Francisco Bay Area. If the sunrise / sunset table was continued, it would show that between 4th – 19th June, sunrise would continually occur on Mt Sakurajima volcano at 20:12 UTC. And the suns longitude position would only alternate between 122’53’W – 122’37’W during this period i.e. Solar Noon in the San Francisco bay Area.
Whilst compiling this analysis, I noted an unprecedented number of 2+ events had occurred in the Canary Islands, Spain on the same day. As of this post time, 5 events in total have occurred, and one event at 07:18:54 UTC 27th May, reached 3.6 Magnitude. According to EMSC records, this event was the highest mag event since 6th May 2019. This 3.6 event occurred on longitude 15’17’W, when I employed the same method as described above to this location, my model showed solar noon on this longitude, corresponded with sunrise just off the coast of Petrolia, California, between 20th May and the present.
When the M 3.6 Canary Island event occurred at 07:18:54 UTC… it was moonset in the San Francisco Bay Area, South of Santa Rosa. Considering this analysis, and my previous post relating to correlating ACE data. In “my humble opinion” a potential 4+ or greater event, may occur in the San Francisco Bay Area, within a matter of days. And my methodology suggests smaller aftershock events, fuelled by Continued correlation with Mt Sakurajima volcano through 15 days of June, is a possibility.
The data and times are real and accurate, however, a positive outcome is still speculative. But the ACE data and Canary Islands events of today, have put the icing on the cake for me… if you know what I mean !!
Score: 0115 ptslesterJune 6, 2020 at 2:36 pm #8994Reactivating this forecast for 5 days from 15:00 UTC June 6… minus Mt Stromboli Volcano.
Seismic correlations combined with ACE data during 5th – 6th June, have been correlating with the US West coast. The solar / lunar thresholds have literally been skimming along the California coastline, starting at the Channel Islands and exiting the coast at San Francisco. The data does not indicate a specific location… only the California coastline as a whole !
Thank you
Score: 0115 ptslesterJune 6, 2020 at 7:40 pm #8997An interesting observation…
With reference to my Mt Sakurajima volcano table above (post; 27th May). Between 2nd – 6th June (post time) Mt Sakurajima volcano erupted and exploded a total of 10 times during this period. What makes this interesting is that according to http://www.volcanodiscovery.com , this is the “only” volcano to have be erupting and exploding during this period !
These events have been solitary since Mt Cleveland volcano erupted in the Aleutian Islands at 06:32 UTC 2nd June. As per the table mentioned above, sunrise on Mt Sakurajima volcano for 6th June, occurs at 20:12 UTC… the sun is located on longitude 123’17’W at this time. On 12 June, sunrise on Mt Sakurajima volcano remains the same at 20:12 UTC, and the sun will start occupying the 122’W longitude range !
Score: 0115 pts115 ptslesterJune 23, 2020 at 1:00 am #905722nd June 21:40 UTC – Significant aspect change in ACE MAG data. RLT located on Mt Sakurajima volcano in Kyushu, Japan… Moon located on longitude 122’46’W !
Continuing this forecast for 5 days from 01:00 UTC June 22
Includes possible eruptive / explosive event from Mt Sakurajima volcano, within 48 hours of stated date / time. Last reported activity was 02:19 UTC 10th June.
Thank you
Score: 0115 pts -
|
You must be logged in to reply to this topic.