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115 ptslesterApril 20, 2020 at 12:47 am #8744
Port Olry, Vanuatu region … 167’20’E – 15’10’S …… 1/4 – 20/4
Kashmir-Xinjiang Border Region … 75’35’E – 36’50’N …… 1/4 – 30/4
South Sulawesi, Indonesia … 119’50’E – 2’30’S …… 14/4
Unimak Island, Aleutian Islands … 165’20’W – 54’15’N …… 14/4 – 22/4 – 28/4 x 2
Papua New Guinea … 141’05’E – 4’50’S …… 14/4
Magnitude: 5.0 – 6.3
Margin: 350 Radial Kilometres
Period: From 01:00 UTC April 20, for 20 days
Experiment, first stage… Determinations were made using 10 days of accumulated ACE data, with respect to threshold contact correlations with potential pre seismic or familiar regions in my model. The idea was to note the intersections of 3 or more thresholds at a particular location, for selection to advance to second stage = 22
Second stage… Timings of all 5+ events during the same 10 day period, was tested in my model, to see if 3 or more event correlations with threshold contacts were made with the 22 ACE selected locations = 12
Third stage… The 12 remaining candidates were then tested against ephemeral time periods related to the month of April. Only the 5 candidates listed, conformed to each stage.
Thank you
Score: 0115 pts115 pts115 ptslesterApril 20, 2020 at 10:05 am #8749I will not be considering the M 5.2 Vanuatu event as a hit. It was not within the time of the forecast, and therefore goes against the purpose of the experiment. Plus, I believe I am now suffering from “cabin fever” thus saying the wrong things, and making bad decisions !
Thank you for input provided by Marco, and especially Mark… always nice to have somebody to talk too lol.
Score: 015 ptsCanyonratApril 21, 2020 at 8:27 pm #8753Observed M 5.2 (5.4) – 48km ENE of Luganville, Vanuatu 2020-04-20 00:34:34 (UTC) 15.324°S 167.567°E 109.1 km depth ad M.2 for depth to magnitude.
It is a day off, BUT well with in your magnitude range and just 30km/19mls from your designated center point 167°20’E 15°10’S. I will say it should be considered a successful forecast.
Dutch once did a rough calculation of what would your chances of forecasting or predicting a quake, using the USGS “party line” that all quakes are random. He said it was about 1 in 100,000,000. So here is my calculation:
ROUGH THERE-A-BOUTS MATH FORMULA
Earths surface area 510,000,000 SQ kilometers
300km radius spot 281,000 SQ kilometersDIVIDED 1,814 (300km radius’s) will fit on the surface of 510,000,000
Choosing a correct point is .00055 chance
Choosing a week (1 out of 52) .02 chance per week
Choosing a 1 magnitude range (M 1-9) .125 chance per M1 range window
Total 1 in 137,500,000 chance of getting it correct
But we are following close to plate boundaries and volcanoes so the surface area we choose from is much smaller. Even if we are looking at just 5% of the surface then the chances of correctly forecasting is 1 in 6,785,000 chance of getting it correct.
Score: 0115 ptslesterApril 21, 2020 at 9:28 pm #8754Excellent calculation Mark (thumbs up), all you have to do now is calculate the average time it takes EMSC and USGS to post notification, when an event has occurred 🙂 . I’m going to print this off and send it to my old evaluator. He would continually call my successful hits “chance occurrences”… he was ex USGS !.
The 5.2 Vanuatu event occurred at 00:35 UTC, 13 minutes before I submitted this forecast. On checking EMSC immediately after submission, within a few seconds of doing so, a bold black M 5.6 Vanuatu appeared. I then went to USGS and there was no sign of it… hence my following messages. USGS finally posted at 00:57 UTC.. 3 minutes before this forecast was due to start. Another ephemeral point related to Vanuatu occurred on 20th. This gives me reason that more will follow, and why I decided against “consideration”. There have already been signs of contact with Port Vile today, which is within the margin I posted.
I noted that ACE recorded solar / lunar contacts on approx 124’10’W today, which could relate to Petrolia CA or Bandon Oregon… but I don’t usually move on one day contacts… and I’m currently not seeing any data related to San Francisco !
Thanks again for the number crunching… I feel so much better for missing Vanuatu now lol
Score: 0115 pts15 ptsCanyonratApril 22, 2020 at 6:50 pm #8756Thank you Lester. Petrolia and Branon see many small quakes. Glad to hear you are getting some activity in you watch area. It looks like the whole planet is in a quiet period. So I watch for larger (M 5.5+) deeper quakes to strike north of New Zealand or north of Australia to signify the start of a new active period around the planet.
And something I have been considering, pure science. Dutch has pointed out that his observations show quakes are caused by a wave of energy under the plates, and that as it rolls along if it’s peak/crest or trough hits a weak point in the plate, it will cause a quake. So we see about the same sized quakes go off in equally spaced distances. So assume this is true. Might that wave carry a unique vibration that could be spotted on the seismograph. Perhaps not the whole reading, but just at the beginning? Perhaps a wave leaves a FINGER print???
And for some pure entertaining nerd seismic joking. Most people heard of the “L” or sometimes called the “Q” wave, lesser known then the four main waves P, S, L, & R. This wave can be described as a wave that moves up at a 45 degree angle and back at about the same angle. The type motion is unfortunate only because of who “named it”, Dr. Love. LOL But the unfortunate naming only continued. Years later the Germans called it the “Q” wave, equally unfortunate because of it’s english sounding word, “quer”. LOL What is good about it, it is the easiest wave to remember. LOL
Score: 0115 ptslesterApril 22, 2020 at 8:38 pm #8758Waves of energy under the plates i.e. Trans Migration, Cascade theory, lithospheric vibrational transmutations etc etc !. Other names that have been around the block a few times, with reference to waves of energy under the plates. Can Dutch provide data to back up his observations ?… this “is” a legitimate question !
Working together… do you have anything for Baja, California ?. My observations tell me this will be the next place of “notable” interest… approx 115’20’W – 31’20’N
Cool wave joke lol. Did you know that Isaac Newton was not only famous for postulating the theory of gravity, he was also credited with inventing the “Cat Flap”. Story goes that he was very perturbed by his cat and her kittens, asking to go out all the time whilst he worked. So he cut a big hole in his front door for mother cat, and small hole for her kittens. But as clever as he was, he didn’t realise the kittens would follow their mother through the big hole !! … Pet Door – Wikipedia
Score: 015 ptsCanyonratApril 23, 2020 at 8:01 pm #8761A review of that area indicates it can have up to low M 5.0 quakes. Your spot next to an old cinder-cone will have a series of quakes, usually several 3.0′ strike and then end with something about one magnitude larger, and all tightly grouped. It looks like before that happens there will be several quakes striking near the city of Mexicali to the north. A 160km/100mls radius will capture around 95% of the quakes in the general area.
My observational method shows the most likely spot to have a quake would be near some other cinder-cones M 3.2 to 4.2 29°36’19.54″N 114°28’43.45″W 160km/100mls radius, soon and likely in the next 24 hours, but a standard seven day window would be appropriate, 2020-04-23 to 2020-04-30.
Our two spots are about 200km/120mls apart.
Score: 015 ptsCanyonratApril 23, 2020 at 8:29 pm #8762Dutch does not have data to support his hypothesis, but he often shows a wave tank in his videos. His idea along with new data showing most of the water on Earth is deep down in the crust in huge masses. The spout idea is his idea of why a quake occurs, but I think it could be used for volcanic activity (in some situations). And the fact that our oceans rise and fall about 10+ft and 10- feet twice a day is good indication that the center of the earth is being “pumped”. It would interesting to take a rubber ball into space, fill it 50% with water, spin it, then bump it in spots tp observe the wave paterns that form.
This is dutch: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S5j_6OExkzI&feature=youtu.be&t=5m29s
Standing wave form: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NpEevfOU4Z8
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Spout: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RHTcSKkUU8U115 ptslesterApril 23, 2020 at 8:53 pm #8763Excellent analysis Mark !… here is my contribution.
Between 19th – 22nd April, I have observed 4 ACE contacts that correspond to 115’20’W – 31’20’N Baja California, Mexico
ACE…
19th April 13:06 UTC = Sunrise
21st April 11:38 UTC – 19:40 UTC = ATB / Solar Noon
22nd April 13:08 UTC = MoonriseSeismic correlations…
16th April 11:45:24 UTC – M 5.9 Myanmar = ATBEphemeral point…
On 24th March between times 14:03:09 UTC – 16:47:11 UTC, the moon reached its furthest distance from earth for Apogee, at 400,312 km’s… and remained at this distance for the duration of this period. At the former time of 14:03:09 UTC, the RLT threshold was located on the stated coordinates.As this location has an ephemeral correlation, it is now an official 4+ forecast within 300 radial kilometres of stated coordinates… to run within the time window you stated. A successful outcome will be jointly credited in proclamations !!
So, when is this wave going to hit Baja ?… 🙂
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