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115 ptslesterApril 9, 2020 at 8:29 pm #8652
Location: Off the Coast of Oaxaca, Mexico … 95’55’W – 15’15’N
Magnitude: 5.5 – 6.8
Margin: 350 Radial Kilometres
Period: From 21:00 UTC April 9, for 20 days
……………………………………………………….It is not my usual practice to publish analysis of my forecasts, before a positive or negative result has been concluded. But in this case, I have decided to take a leaf out of Mark’s book by summarising my analysis, and likewise try and present this in an understandable format. I have tried working a different aspect of my hypothesis today, and calculated my Oaxaca forecast, by investigating recent “swarm Events” related to Anza, Southern California. Chances of this aspect producing a result are very slim… but the numbers all seem to culminate today !
As Mark pointed out in his forecast thread, we experienced a super moon yesterday (8th), which is a combination of Full Moon and Perigee (closest lunar approach to earth) occurring on the same day. There is evidence that resulting high tides during lunar events such as this one, can contribute to the occurrence of significant seismic activity in the following days. Tidal theory is worth looking into… but is not one that I myself incorporate into my own calculations.
However, Full Moon’s and perigee’s do play a role in my method, along with several other lunar ephemeris periods… or to expand on this, ephemeral points in time (finite periods related to orbital positions). My usual method of determining potential locations, is to take note of any significant online data, with respect to specific regions. And then try to match ephemeral periods to the same region. In the case of Oaxaca, Mexico, I found three ephemeral periods, and two of these relate to Perigee.
On 10th March between times 05:46:29 UTC – 07:11:31 UTC, the moon reached its closest distance to earth for March Perigee, at 350,750 km’s… and remained at this distance for the duration of of this period. At the latter time of 17:11:31 UTC, the moon was located on longitude 96’00’W… Oaxaca, Mexico
On 16th March between times 06:52 UTC – 07:19 UTC, it was “Last Quarter” moon phase… observed as a “half moon” at sunrise. The time period relates to the motion of the moon, as it keeps pace with the sunrise, threshold before eventually falling behind due to earths rotation. At the former time of 06:52 UTC, it was moonrise on Oaxaca, Mexico.
On 7th April (super moon day !) between times 17:49:52 UTC – 18:25:56 UTC, the moon reached its closest distance to earth for April Perigee, at 350’532 km’s… and remained at this distance for the duration of this period. At the latter time of 18:25:56 UTC, the sun was located on longitude 96’0’W… Oaxaca, Mexico.
These are the ephemeral periods I used to determine Oaxaca as a potential candidate, but I also noted a similar period related to Anza, Southern California. You also have to take into account, these are to be regarded as “coincidental” correlations, unless credibility can be determined… only few people like myself believe otherwise.
On 19th February between times 05:53:02 UTC – 11:55:20 UTC, the moon reached its furthest southern latitude for February, at 23’19’S… and remained at this latitude for the duration of this period. At the latter time of 11:55:20 UTC, it was moonrise on Anza, Southern California. I originally used this ephemeral period for formulating my Anderman Island forecast, because it was also sunset on Andaman at this time. Anza was not an issue when I first calculated Andaman, but recent ACE data correlated these two locations, and spurned me to renew my Andaman forecast… this date is included in the reference listing !
Moving on to Anza swarms, I made calculations from the three most recent occurrences, starting with the most recent first. This swarm occurred on 8th April, starting with an M 3.4 event at 00:30:48 UTC, and terminating with an M 2.2 event at 01:01:48 UTC… totalling 7 events during this period. At 00:30:48 UTC, it was moonrise on Oaxaca, Mexico.
Second swarm occurred on 5th April, starting with an M 2.7 event at 21:08:14 UTC, which EMSC reported 65 responses. And terminated with an M 2.5 event at 23:11:58 UTC… totalling 9 events during this period. At 21:08:14 UTC, it was moonrise on Mt Anak Krakatau Volcano in the Sunda Strait, Indonesia… my summery will explain why this volcano is included.
Third swarm occurred the day before on 4th April, and started with an M 4.9 event at 01:53:18 UTC, which EMSC reported 539 responses. And terminated with an M 2.2 event at 03:06:59 UTC… totalling 18 events during this period. At 01:53:18 UTC, it was moonset on the Island of Crete, Greece… again, summery will explain reason !
As well as the ephemeral periods and Anza swarms, I searched for more insignificant correlations. The only recent correlation I could find related to Anza and Oaxaca, occurred on 5th April at 12:16 UTC. At this time, it was sunrise in Oaxaca, Mexico on the coordinates posted above… and the SLT was located on Anza, Southern California. The setting lunar threshold (SLT) refers to the afterglow when the moon has set below the horizon.
Then to summarise… at 12:13 UTC today (9th), it was sunrise on my Oaxaca forecast coordinates… and the RLT (for-glow) was located on Mt Anak Krakatau Volcano. later this day at 18:26 UTC, the sun was located on longitude 96’09’W, which corresponds to “Solar Noon” or high noon on my forecast coordinates… solar noon encompasses 15 minutes of arc, East / West of centre point. And at this same time, it was moonrise on the Island of Crete, Greece… which according to EMSC, experienced an M 4.3 event at 01:11:47 UTC today.
Don’t know if this will work, but this scenario is a bit like playing poker, you have several different players… but Anza is the one dealing the cards !!
Just an experiment to pass the time (3 weeks isolation past… 3 months 1 week to go 🙁 )… so I have posted for the full 20 day forecast period allowed.
Thank you
Score: 0115 ptslesterApril 10, 2020 at 9:07 am #8655The VAAC in Darwin has reported a “High Level Eruption” occurring at 02:35 UTC 10th April, from Mt Merapi volcano in central Java, Indonesia.
Eruption coincided with moonrise on my Oaxaca forecast coordinates… interesting !
http://www.volcanodiscovery.com
http://www.sunrisesunsetmap.com
Score: 0115 ptslesterApril 10, 2020 at 11:26 pm #8667The VAAC in Darwin has reported a “Violent Eruption” Occurring from Mt Anak Krakatau Volcano in the Sunda Strait, Indonesia on 10th April.
Therefore, is it feasible that correlation with Mt Anak Krakatau volcano, triggered the 5th April Anza, California swarm ?… and how would this be achieved ?
If the Mt Merapi volcano eruption of earlier this day, correlated to Oaxaca, Mexico… what are the implications for Oaxaca and Crete, now that Anak Krakatau has erupted ?
The stakes have just got higher in this seismic poker game !
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