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115 ptslesterDecember 1, 2020 at 6:00 pm #9818
Prediction for an eruptive / explosive event from Mt Etna volcano in Sicily, Italy … 14’59’E – 37’45’N
Secondary prediction for Mt Stromboli volcano in the Eolian Islands, Italy … 15’12’E – 38’47’N
Period: From 18:00 UTC December 1, for 5 days
Ref; 5.4 Guam 24/11 – Mt Ebeko volcano 24/11 – 5.1 Southern Mid-Atlantic 27/11 – 5.0 Southwest Indian Ridge 29/11 – 5.0 North Sumatra 30/11 – 6.4 Russia 30/11 – 6.3 Fox Islands 1/12
Thank you
Score: 0115 ptslesterDecember 7, 2020 at 12:10 am #9860On 6th Dec (at the time of this post), a small 6 member swarm of 2’s occurred on the west flank of Mt Etna volcano… this swarm occurred within a period of 22 minutes between 22:38:26 UTC – 22:59:20 UTC. One other event occurred earlier in the day , and this totaled 7 events which was the highest number of events in this region since 24th October. There have been no further seismic / volcanic correlations with Mt Etna since the listed events referenced in the previous post. But a “rare” M 4.0 event in the Tyrrhenian Sea at 01:50:03 UTC on this day, does share the same sunset threshold as Mt Etna.
Continuing this forecast for 3 days from 00:10 UTC December 7
Thank you
Score: 0115 pts115 pts115 pts115 ptslesterDecember 14, 2020 at 10:38 am #9906https://www.volcanodiscovery.com/etna/news/116305/Etna-volcano-update-Activity-decreases.html
Score: 0115 ptslesterDecember 14, 2020 at 3:40 pm #9908The initial report that Mt Etna erupted at 22:20 UTC 13th Dec, has now been revised as 22:15 UTC by the VAAC. Reviewing my data and scrutinizing model calculations, has shown no further seismic, volcanic, or ACE correlations with mt Etna since the M 5.1 Myanmar on 8th Dec.
The T sequence has shown that a solar / lunar correlation occurred between Mt Etna volcano and Hawaii at 15:42 UTC 13th Dec. It was sunset on Mt Etna, and the RLT was located in Volcano, Hawaii. At the time of eruption 22:15 UTC, the sun was located on longitude 155’06’W Volcano, Hawaii, and the moon was located on longitude 166’08’W. The opposite longitude calculates as 14’52’E… Mt Etna volcano resides on longitude 14’59’E. The moon was located on the true opposite longitude to Mt Etna at 22:14:38 UTC.
Score: 0115 pts115 ptslesterDecember 15, 2020 at 12:28 am #9918Mt Etna scenario…
On 15th Dec at 04:30 UTC, the ATE threshold will be located on Mt Etna volcano. At “12-hours” later 16:30 UTC, the sun will be located on longitude 68’38’W (M 6.0 Antofagasta 68’42’W), it will be moonset on Mt Etna volcano, and moonrise in Richmond, San Francisco.
Other recent correlations with the San Francisco Bay Area include; M 5.3 Volcano Islands 8/12 – Mt Suwanosejima 8/12 – Mt Ebeko 8/12 – M 5.5 Lake Baykal 9/12 – Mt Suwanosejima 10/12 – M 6.0 Antofagasta 14/12
These correlations are not concentrated in any particular region, which “may reduce” the possibility of notable activity. But combined with this scenario, the odds of seismic activity actually occurring in the Bay Area during the next few days, is greatly increased !
The last event to occur in the San Francisco Bay area, was an M 2.2 on 24th November !
Score: 0115 ptslesterDecember 16, 2020 at 12:00 pm #9926https://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/earthquake.php?id=930000
Barely registered on the scale… but it did happen !
Score: 0115 ptslesterDecember 19, 2020 at 3:39 pm #9946Observed… M 4.1 Sicily, Italy 10:57:42 UTC 19th Dec. The sun was located on longitude 14’54’E at the time of this event… Mt Etna volcano resides on longitude 14’59’E. I have not noted any recent correlations with Mt Etna, but this event may indicate that Mt Etna is gearing up for another eruption. The T sequence also shows that significant correlations between Mt Etna and Mauna Loa volcano in Hawaii, will occur on 20th – 22nd December.
20th Dec 03:50 UTC – Sunset on Mauna loa volcano … Moon located on longitude 165’01’W, opposite longitude calculates as 14’59’E !
20th Dec 21:55 UTC – RLT located on Mauna Loa volcano … SLT located on Mt Etna volcano !
22nd Dec 04:38 UTC – ATE threshold located on Mt Etna volcano … Moon located on longitude 155’51’WOn 18th December, three 2+ events occurred in the San Francisco Bay Area !
Score: 0115 pts115 pts3 pts115 ptslesterDecember 24, 2020 at 12:48 am #9982The sun can incident influence up to 15 minutes of Arc east / west of its longitude position relative to Earth. Range of influence is in proportion with the suns distance from the Earth. The difference between Earth Aphelion and perihelion is approximately 3 million miles. At an average distance 93 million miles from the sun, this small margin has a negligible effect on the influential range of the sun.
The moon on the other hand being a closer celestial body, can incident influence within a range of 15 Arc minutes, out to 30 Arc minutes east / west of longitude depending on its orbital distance. This is kind of like two magnets moving close together on upper and lower parallel levels. Before the magnets start to eclipse each other, at an influential distance the magnets are drawn to each other prior to full contact. And the same affect is apparent when drawing the magnets apart. Adjusting the height of the upper magnet decreases the influential distance, and partial eclipse may occur before influence is achieved. The moon alters its distance from Earth twice a month for Perigee and Apogee. When the moon is in close proximity to Earth for Perigee, for several days during this period, moon influence can be calculated as an average of 30 minutes of Arc. when it is in the period of Apogee, the influence decreases because of the distance, and reduces to an average range of 15 minutes of Arc.
You pointed out a good observation, and indeed at first glance the moon definitely looks like it is in the longitude neighborhood of Mt Etna. But the math indicates that the moon was actually located on longitude 16’06’E. Mt Etna resides on longitude 14’59’E, so this subtends a difference of 1.12 degrees or 67 minutes of Arc.
The actual focus of the stated correlation was the 12-hour window theory, and the moons position at this time had no relevant influence on something that happened 12 hours earlier… this was down to the sunrise threshold. I guess this is a long winded way of saying that I try to use precision with my determinations, and in no way does it discredit your observation… and it is also nice to know that somebody actually reads this stuff 🙂
Score: 03 ptsMarco PoloDecember 24, 2020 at 10:55 am #9989Every single word of it!! Not sure if you are realising what’s going on here. We are now approaching forecasting from two very different angles and then look for confluence. When there is confluence we usually have a hit, when there isn’t we usually don’t. We are onto something! Please take a look at the new forecast for the Ionian Sea. I can only find one ‘touch’ using the ‘Lester method’ but my eyes are not as well trained as yours. Is your Gmail working yet??
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This reply was modified 3 years, 12 months ago by
Marco Polo.
115 ptslesterDecember 24, 2020 at 3:33 pm #9991I believe you are referring to “cloud data”, which is corresponding with seismic correlations at specific locations !
Different angles of approach will inevitably come to the same conclusion, if “credible” data is used to determine said locations. I am not a fan of conjectural reasoning, were by speculation and assumptions are made, to explain results of an occurrence that originates from a prior source. If a theoretical scenario can not be backed up by some form of “testable” data, it cannot be regarded as a practical hypothesis. My own method is based on observations. And I try to describe how these observations can be formulated, to explain how they contribute towards seismic and volcanic determinations. The source material for this formula occurs on a daily basis, I publish my observations, and it is then open to scrutiny by those who wish to verify my findings.
Oh!… don’t talk to me about Gmail’s 🙁
I can receive Gmail, but cannot respond. I have several replies that did not reach their destinations… so I can only assume they are still floating about in cyber space. Rectifying the problem is frustratingly delayed due to maintenance disruption, resulting from the pandemic. Bad for me, but I know a few academics that are going to have a nice peaceful Christmas… 🙂
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