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115 ptslesterJanuary 18, 2021 at 1:40 am #10114
Location: Off Coast of Porlo, New Britain P.N.G. … 151’18’E – 6’05’S
Magnitude: 5.5 – 6.8
Margin: 350 Radial Kilometres
Period: From 01:40 UTC January 18, for 5 days
The T Sequence…
16th Jan 02:03:30 UTC – Sun located on longitude 151’33’E +12-hours = Moon located on 14’59’E Mt Etna
16th Jan 19:52:27 UTC – Sunrise on New Britain – Moonrise on Mt Kilauea – Moon located on longitude 69’33’W… opposite longitude calculates as 110’27’E Mt Merapi
17th Jan 08:15:09 UTC – Sunset on New Britain – Moon located on longitude 110’23’E Mt Merapi
17th Jan 09:30 UTC – ATE threshold located on New Britain -12-hours = Sunrise on Mt Ebeko
18th Jan 09:30 UTC – ATE threshold located on New Britain – RLT located on Mt Etna
Seismic correlations…
11th Jan 14:02:03 UTC – M 5.1 Kashmir Region
11th Jan 21:32:58 UTC – M 6.7 Mongolia- Russia Border
15th Jan 20:18:28 UTC – M 5.1 Solomon Islands
15th Jan 21:31:05 UTC – M 5.4 Southern Iran
16th Jan 09:26:43 UTC – M 5.3 Sunda Strait
16th Jan 23:10:57 UTC – M 5.1 Taiwan Region
17th Jan 18:40:44 UTC – M 5.4 South Sandwich IslandsThank you
Score: 0115 pts115 pts115 ptslesterFebruary 1, 2021 at 1:38 am #10211Analysis… credit to Mark for providing PNSN data !
On 26th January at 13:25:00 UTC, an M 1.8 event occurred west of Port Alberni, Vancouver Island, Canada, on coordinates 125’01’W – 49’13’N. This event was the first of a swarm which totalled 54 up to the end of this day (UTC). At 13:25 UTC, moonrise was accompanied by the ATB threshold on approx coordinates 118’17’W – 34’00’N in the Downtown area of Los Angeles. At “12-hours” earlier 01:25 UTC, it was sunset in Concord, San Francisco Bay Area.
The T Sequence for 26th January showed that the ATB threshold was located on this epicentre at 14:07 UTC… at “12-hours” earlier 02:07 UTC, it was moonset ESE of Bristol Island, South Sandwich Islands.
Sunrise occurred on this epicentre at 15:58 UTC, the sun was located on longitude 56’20’W at this time… the opposite longitude calculates as 123’40’E. On 27th Jan at 04:19:57 UTC, an M 5.0 event occurred in Minahasi, Sulawesi on coordinates 123’30’E – 0’01’N. At “12-hours” later 16:19:57 UTC, the SLT was located on Mt Kilauea volcano in Hawaii.
At 20:32:46 UTC, the sun was located on longitude 125’01’W, therefore Solar Noon on the M 1.8 epicentre. At “12-hours” earlier 08:32:46 UTC, the moon was located on longitude 156’10’W. On 27th Jan at 22:07:53 UTC, an M 3.3 event occurred Southwest of Captain Cook, Hawaii on coordinates 156’14’W – 19’11’N… a rare location for those who are familiar with seismicity in this region. Also at this Hawaiian event time, it was sunset on Zavadovski Island, South Sandwich Islands.
The ATE threshold was located on the M 1.8 epicentre at 02:56 UTC, and this ATE threshold was shared with Concord, in the San Francisco Bay Area. At “12-hours” earlier 14:56 UTC 25th Jan, the SLT was located on the M 1.8 epicentre, and it was sunrise in the Thousand Oaks region of Los Angeles.
Moonset occurred on the M 1.8 epicentre at 14:52 UTC… it was sunrise in the Glendale region of Los Angeles.
On 25th Jan at 17:56:53 UTC, the moon was located on longitude 54’59’E… the opposite longitude calculates as 125’01’W. At “12-hours” later 05:56:53 UTC 26th Jan, the moon was located on longitude 118’36’W !
On 26th Jan at 06:23:30 UTC, the moon was located on longitude 125’01’W. At “12-hours” later 18:23:30 UTC, the moon was located on longitude 61’31’E… the opposite longitude calculates as 118’29’W.
This concludes T Sequence analysis of this M 1.8 epicentre… one down, fifty three to go !
…………………………………………………………………………………………………According to the PNSN data, the swarm of 26th January was the first notable activity in this region since the start of the year… apart from 5 events on 23rd January that did not surpass 1.1 magnitude. Therefore, something must have happened on the 26th to instigate the swarm activity.
On 26th January between times 11:33:00 UTC – 19:45:13 UTC, the moon had reached its highest lateral position for the month of January, at latitude 24’53’N. And remained on this latitude for the duration of this period… commonly referred to as a “Lunar Standstill”.
On 25th Jan at 13:56:40 UTC, the sun was located on “26’04’W”… the SLT was located on the M 1.8 Vancouver epicentre… and the moon was located on longitude 112’56’E… Mt Semeru volcano in east Java resides on 112’55’E. At 23:33 UTC 25th Jan, the moon was located on longitude “26’04’W”… at “12-hours” later 11:33 UTC 26th Jan, the moon was located on coordinates 160’25’E – 24’53’N, for the first second of the “Lunar Standstill” period !
On 25th Jan at 21:57:51 UTC, it was moonrise on the M 1.8 Vancouver epicentre, and the moon was located on longitude 3’07’W Southern Spain. At 24-hours later 21:57:51 UTC 26th Jan, the moon was located on longitude “9’54’E”… at the first second of “Lunar Standstill” 11:33 UTC, the sun was located on longitude “9’54’E” !
………………………………………………………………………………………………………..The occurrence of a seismic swarm can give indication that either “notable” activity in the same vicinity, may be a near future possibility. Or, it may indicate similar notable activity on a shared fault line. However, I have used seismic swarms several times as part of my methodology, to track down potential seismic anomalies in other regions of the world… comparing them to a kind of warning sign.
The seismic swarm in Vancouver, which started from an M 1.8 event on 26th Jan, has continued each day up to the present. I have analysed the swarm data between dates 26th – 30th Jan to try and establish a pattern. The following table represents the longitude positions most easterly (E) and westerly (W) members of the ongoing swarm, from each of the five days stated. These are accompanied by the ATE times on each epicentre, the longitude of the sun at these times…
26th Jan – 124’19’W (E) … 14:04 UTC – 27’51’W
26th Jan – 125’18’W (W) … 14:08 UTC – 28’51’W27th Jan – 124’10’W (E) … 14:02 UTC – 27’18’W
27th Jan – 125’31’W (W) … 14:08 UTC – 28’48’W28th Jan – 124’33’W (E) … 14:03 UTC – 27’30’W
28th Jan – 125’36’W (W) … 14:08 UTC – 28’45’W29th Jan – 124’01’W (E) … 14:00 UTC – 26’42’W
29th Jan – 125’33’W (W) … 14:06 UTC – 28’12’W30th Jan – 124’02’W (E) … 13:59 UTC – 26’25’W
30th Jan – 126’12’W (W) … 14:08 UTC – 28’40’WAs this table shows, the sun was located within a 2.5 degree Solar Noon range of the “South Sandwich Islands”. However, the same could apply on the opposite longitude, in the New Britain Region P.N.G. The data that is most significant in this table, relates to the ATB times, as 80% correlated to the same time of 14:08 UTC. Extrapolate these, and including opposite solar longitudes (O), and the results are as follows
26th Jan – 14:08 UTC … 28’51’W – 151’09’E (O)
27th Jan – 14:08 UTC … 28’48’W – 151’12’E (O)
28th Jan – 14:08 UTC … 28’45’W – 151’15’E (O)
30th Jan – 14:08 UTC … 28’40’W – 151’20’E (O)This table now gives an indication of longitude parameters, which helps to focus other data sets to specific targets. The results suggest that search parameters of 11 minutes of Arc, narrow the search down to three potential locations. The most prominent in the West is the South Sandwich Islands, and the 28 degree longitude range usually signifies activity Northwest of Zavodovski Island in the northern region. On the opposite longitude, locations include the frequently active New Britain Region, and the less frequently active Kuril Islands. These locations are very familiar targets in the predictors list of “usual suspects”… but I have been caught out several times in the past, by activity occurring in the Bismarck Sea or New Ireland Region in the 151’E longitude range !
……………………………………………………………………………………………On 26th January when the first swarm members appeared on Vancouver Island, it was sunrise on Mt Etna volcano in Sicily, Italy at 06:09 UTC. Also at this time, it was moonrise on coordinates 151’20’E – 5’35’S west of Malakua, New Britain P.N.G.
On 28th Jan at 07:57 UTC, it was moonrise on coordinates 151’20’E – 5’35’S New Britain… at “12-hours” later 19:57 UTC, it was sunrise on the same coordinates = “12-hours”.
On 28th Jan at 07:57 UTC, it was moonrise in New Britain on the stated coordinates… and moonset on coordinates 17’50’W – 28’35’N Island of La Palma in the Canary Islands. At 4 minutes later 08:01 UTC, sunrise was accompanied by the SLT (moonset) on the Island of La Palma !
On 31st January at 08:32:54 UTC, an M 1.8 event occurred on the Island of La Palma. This was the first member of a swarm that was progressing at the time of this post. At 08:32:54 UTC, the sun was located on longitude 55’08’E… the opposite longitude calculates as 124’52’W Vancouver Island, Canada. The first swarm member occurred here on 26th January on longitude 125’01’W !
The South Sandwich Islands, and Kuril Islands are currently work in progress for Separate forecasts. I will be moving on the Sandwich islands region upon expiry of my Mt kerinci volcano forecast (which now appears to be related to seismicity !) Mt kerinci prediction was formulated from the M 6.9 South Shetland Islands event of 23rd January for a 10 day period. A suggestion of an M 6.2 – M 7.2 event in the Sandwich Islands region within 48 hours of the South Shetland event, is now “past due”. As both locations were determined from the same event, it is only fair that allotted time period should be the same. I have in my time here, predicted volcanic eruptions within a stated 48 hours, but a 7.2 earthquake within the same time period is beyond my expertise. It reminds me of a quote I once heard in an old movie “you can’t argue with a confident man”… Karma points for guessing the movie 🙂
Thank you
Score: 0115 ptslesterFebruary 9, 2021 at 12:20 pm #10251https://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/earthquake.php?id=947175
M 5.5 New Britain P.N.G. … 9th February
Event occurred 62 km’s (39 miles) Northeast of PNSN analysis coordinates !
Continuing this forecast for 5 days from 12:20 UTC February 9
Thank you
Score: 06 ptsJECFebruary 10, 2021 at 3:41 pm #10252These must have been foreshocks for the 7.7 Loyalty Island quake of today, Feb 10th. Tsunami alert (waves seen) for Vanuatu, Fiji,Nuie, Tonga, NZ, AU coasts. Good job lester..dont know if this is a ‘recognized’ win..but you called it..watching and knowing it was going to happen.
Score: 0115 ptslesterFebruary 10, 2021 at 8:21 pm #10254Hey JEC… I really appreciate the gesture sir, but the Loyalty Islands were not on on my radar for such events to occur. However, you are correct with your assumption that the tremor activity on Vancouver Island, does correlate to the M 7.7 Loyalty Islands epicentre… but probably not in the way you imagine. I reported that significant swarm activity had begun at Vancouver Island on 26th January. I have re-analysed this period using my model, to see if correlation with the Loyalty Islands was a possibility…
On 23rd Jan at 20:39:45 UTC, the moon was located on longitude 8’32’W. The M 7.7 Loyalty Islands event of today occurred on the opposite longitude of 171’28’E. Whilst the moon was located on longitude 8’32’W, it was moonrise on coordinates 124’06’W – 49’20’N Strait of Georgia, Vancouver Island Region… this location is 4 arcmins east of my forecast coordinates 124’10’W – 49’20’N, posted on 5th February.
On 24th Jan at 12:46:19 UTC, the sun was located on longitude 8’32’W… and it was moonset on coordinates 124’10’W – 49’20’N. At “12-hours” later 00:46:19 UTC 25th Jan, it was moonrise on Mt Kilauea volcano in Hawaii.
This assessment concludes that although there was no “direct” threshold correlations between Vancouver and the Loyalty Islands, it does suggest that they are part of the same seismic cycle. I believe if further time was employed to test all associated scenarios, the Loyalty Islands may have been more prominent in the calculations.
The M 5.5 event in New Britain may, or may not have been attributed to the Vancouver swarm, as my analysis implies… and credit cannot be claimed on this occasion. Purely because it was an independent analysis of “one event”. Similar successful analyses would have to be undertaken on future tremor events to determine credibility. The most favourable aspect of this event, relates to my methodology. I only renew forecasts based on a level of observed correlations. I had not observed correlations with New Britain for two weeks prior to this occurrence… only the tremor data analysis from 26th January was a match !
There will undoubtedly be different causal aspects proposed for the occurrence of the Loyalty Islands events. As part of my contribution, the following is a sample of correlations during 10th February…
On 10th February at 04:14 UTC, an eruption occurred from Mt Ebeko volcano in the northern Kuril Islands, on coordinates 156’01’E – 50’41’N. At “12-hours” earlier 16:14 UTC 9th Feb, the ATE threshold was located on Mt Piton de la Fournaise volcano, Reunion Island, on coordinates 55’42’E – 21’14’S. At “12-hours” later 16:14 UTC 10th Feb, the RLT was located on Mt Kilauea volcano in Hawaii.
At 08:22:31 UTC, an M 5.6 event occurred on the Central East Pacific Rise… at “12-hours” earlier 20:22:31 UTC 9th Feb, the RLT was located on Mt Ebeko volcano.
At 12:24:21 UTC, an M 6.0 event occurred in the Loyalty Islands region… at “12-hours” earlier 00:24:21 UTC, the RLT was located on Mt Piton, and the moon was located on longitude 155’59’E Mt Ebeko.
At 12:52:27 UTC, an M 6.2 event occurred southwest of Sumatra, Indonesia. The moon was located on longitude 24’02’W at this time… the opposite longitude calculates as 155’58’E Mt Ebeko.
AT 13:20:00 UTC, an M 7.7 event occurred in the Loyalty Islands Region. At 24-hours earlier 13:20:00 UTC 9th Feb, it was moonset on Mt Piton de la Fournaise volcano. At “12-hours” later 01:19:21 UTC, the moon will be located on longitude 156’01’E Mt Ebeko volcano !
Other related events during February include…
3rd Feb 00:49:45 UTC – M 5.3 Southeast of Loyalty Islands -12-hours = ATE threshold located on coordinates 101’39’E – 5’39’S Pre seismic M 6.2 Southwest of Sumatra on 10th Feb.
3rd Feb 00:51:36 UTC – M 5.3 Southeast of Loyalty Islands = Moon located on longitude 55’41’E Mt Piton de la Fournaise volcano
7th Feb 02:58:19 UTC – M 5.0 Southeast of Loyalty Islands -12-hours = Sunset on Mt Piton de la Fournaise volcano
There are currently no reports of volcanic activity from Mt Piton de la Fournaise volcano. But I am speculating that this will change soon… and then we will have to evaluate which “aspect” is more credible !
As a side note… I am purposely refraining from forecasts in the region of southern China. I believe you have a valid point regarding compression / inflation related to water volume. And also believe it is a question of when , not if… therefore, also a question of timing. I offer contributions if it is requested, but it is a pointless exercise if two competing theories are “interdependently” aiming for the same target… as occasionally happens too me !
Apologies for my extended reply… and thank you again for your kind remarks… 🙂
Score: 0115 ptslesterFebruary 10, 2021 at 11:09 pm #10255Ephemeral time points related to the Loyalty Islands Region…
On 21st January between times 12:41 UTC – 13:46 UTC, the moon was at its furthest distance from Earth, for Apogee at 397,980 km’s. At the former time of 12:41 UTC, it was moonset on coordinates 171’19’E – 23’15’S… equates to 4 arcmins west of the M 7.7 epicentre of 10th Feb, 171’23’E – 23’15’S.
On 22nd January between times 12:25 UTC – 12:56 UTC, the moon was located on the ATE threshold for the duration of this period. At “12-hours” earlier 00:56 UTC, it was moonrise on coordinates 171’19’E – 23’15’S… this also includes 171’23’E !
On 28th January between times 17:13:40 UTC – 17:16:24 UTC, the sun and moon were located on opposite longitudes for the “Full Moon” phase. At 24-hours earlier 17:13:40 UTC 27th Jan, the SLT (moonset) was located on the pre seismic M 7.7 epicentre !
On 3rd February between times 08:17 UTC – 08:40 UTC, the moon was located on the ATB threshold for the duration of this period. At 08:40 UTC, the ATE threshold was located on coordinates 171’38’E – 22’51’S… this is the pre seismic location of the first M 6.0 southeast of Loyalty Islands event of 12:24:21 UTC 10th Feb. At 24-hours earlier 08:17 UTC 2nd Feb, the SLT was located on Mt Piton de la Fournaise volcano !
Magnitude 5+ activity in the Loyalty Islands region is currently extending between longitudes 170’52’E – 172’03’E
Credit to…
http://www.sunrisesunsetmap.com
http://www.fourmilab.ch/cgi-bin/Earth
Score: 0115 ptslesterFebruary 11, 2021 at 2:20 pm #10257Digging deeper !…
On 9th Feb at 05:27:38 UTC, the sun was located on longitude 101’39’E… and the SLT (moonset) was located on the pre seismic M 7.7 Southeast of Loyalty Islands epicentre of 10th Feb, on coordinates 171’28’E – 23’15’S.
On 9th Feb at 23:18 UTC, it was sunrise on the pre seismic M 6.2 Southwest of Sumatra epicentre of 10th Feb, on coordinates 101’39’E – 5’39’S… and the moon was located on longitude 171’56’E Loyalty Islands.
On 10th Feb at 12:48 UTC, the ATE threshold was located on the pre seismic M 6.2 Southwest of Sumatra epicentre, and the sun was located on longitude 8’27’W… the opposite longitude calculates as 171’33’E !
…………………………………………………………………………………………………….On 8th Feb at 13:51:22 UTC, the moon was located on longitude 65’57’W… Mt Raung volcano in East Java resides on the opposite longitude of 114’03’E. Also at this time, the RLT (moonrise) was located on coordinates 124’10’W – 49’20’N Strait of Georgia, Vancouver Island Region.
On 9th Feb at 14:50:07 UTC, the moon was again located on longitude 65’57’W… and it was moonrise in the Strait of Georgia on the stated coordinates.
On 10th Feb at 16:37:59 UTC, the moon was located on longitude 78’21’W… the opposite longitude calculates as 101’39’E Southwest of Sumatra. At “12-hours” earlier 04:38:00 UTC, the sun was located on longitude 114’03’E Mt Raung volcano !
Score: 0115 ptslesterFebruary 12, 2021 at 2:02 pm #10259Not drawing any conclusions… but seems to fit the picture !!
As of Thursday 11th February, the PNSN tremor data for Vancouver Island, is indicating that tremors in this region ceased at 01:07:30 UTC on this day. On possible reason that cannot be ignored, is that it has coincided with significant events occurring in the Southeast Loyalty Islands Region.
As posted above on 1st February 1:38 am, the first member of this swarm occurred as an M 1.8 event at 13:25:00 UTC 26th January on coordinates 125’01’W – 49’13’N West of Port Alberni, Vancouver Island. And as further reported, by 30th January the swarm members had encompassed a longitude range of 2.5 degrees. The following table represents sunset times on the first original swarm member, and position of the sun within 15 arcmins of longitude from Mt Klyuchevskoy volcano in Kamchatka, on coordinates 160’28’E – 56’03’N…
7th Feb – 01:28 UTC ….. 161’32’E
8th Feb – 01:29 UTC ….. 161’17’E
9th Feb – 01:31 UTC ….. 160’48’E
10th Feb – 01:33 UTC …. 160’18’E *
11th Feb – 01:34 UTC …. 160’03’E
12th Feb – 01:36 UTC …. 159’33’E
13th feb – 01:38 UTC …. 159’03’EOn 10th Feb at 01:32:23 UTC, the sun was located on longitude 160’28’E
On 11th Feb at 00:15 UTC, it was moonset on the original swarm member west of Port Alberni, and the moon was located on longitude 171’31’E. The M 7.7 Southeast of Loyalty Islands event of 10th February, occurred on longitude 171’28’E !
Another possible consequence of this exemplified relationship, is that activity in the Loyalty Islands region, may “offset” other prospective seismic / volcanic activity. Previous calculations determining other potential targets, may be equally affected… we will have to wait a little longer, and see if this is the case !
Score: 0115 ptslesterFebruary 13, 2021 at 4:47 pm #10265https://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/earthquake.php?id=948837
M 6.0 New Britain P.N.G. … 13th February
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