lester
Hey Mark, a meet up at Parkfield on 10th May, sounds like a good idea… don’t know who is going to bring the quake, but last man standing buys the beer :). I will forewarn you, the following has got nothing to do with seismology, so you might find it a little boring !
The reference data I post with my forecasts serves two purposes. Firstly it is for my own records, as I am attempting to workout ephemeral combinations that match specific levels of seismic magnitude. And secondly, they are there for the very purpose you are asking me now. If you are going to predict an earthquake, at a specific location, there has to be reason why you would pick this particular spot. Its easy enough to pick a location on a tectonic or seismic map, and take a chance. But true prediction efforts that result in a successful determination of location, can only be measured by your skill factor. If you have a particular prediction method that produces a noticeable percentage of positive results, and you can “also” submit credible data to back up your claim… it is credited to you, and your “skill factor” increases. Kind of proves your not just pinning the tail on the donkey, and winning the game… once ! I am hoping this archaic forecast of mine from last year, will help provide some credible evidence and reasoning to my hypothesis. And I thought it might make you feel more at home, because it does relate to your neck of the woods… humorous and considerate !
The premise for my hypothesis is ” Significant earthquakes are pre selected by naturally occurring events, and seismic activity across the whole magnitude range, is sustained by self-propagation”… this also includes volcanic eruptions !
I don’t think I want to cover the science aspects just yet, because there are lots of moving parts. And I also have a rule that I don’t push my own theories onto others, unless they request I do so. Most seasoned predictors are institutionalised to their own believes anyway, and become less open minded to other theories… and I probably fall into this category too. It still has gaps, and I believe elements of other peoples methods or theories may hold the key to making it work in its entirety… another reason why I am watching your work.
I think the best thing to do, is cover your inquiry about the Kuril Islands reference data,but I can best do this by providing instruction and directing you to an online tool you can use. It is an observational tool, I provide the data you need to input, then you can “visually” make up your own mind weather my reference data is credible, or weather I am crazy… unless you have already done that ?
Might help if you print this, and then you don’t have to keep changing tabs.
1. Load website http://www.timeanddate.com
2. Select Sun & Moon in the headers
3.select Day and Night Map from the drop down menu
On 18th March at 17:45:38 UTC, an M 6.3 event occurred South of Bali, Indonesia. Below the Day and Night Map there are selection boxes for imputing Year, Month, Day, Hour and Minute. The minute box has a fault which prevents it from holding odd numbers (as compared to even). Input 18th March 2020 – 17:46 UTC in the boxes, and select the green “Change Time” box.
What you should be looking at is a global map displaying the sunrise, sunset and twilight thresholds, in the positions they where, at the time of the 6.3 Bali event. Not sure if you are familiar with twilight zones, but if not, over Europe and West Africa is the sunset threshold (border). Then the first band is Civil twilight, followed by Nautical twilight, Astronomical twilight, and then dark (night). At 03:13:47 UTC on this same day, an M 6.1 event occurred in the region of Sola, Vanuatu. If you look on the map, I can tell you that the ATB threshold (astronomical twilight begins) was located on this 6.1 Vanuatu epicentre… I have epicentres modelled on my own maps. If you follow the threshold North, the map will show that the ATB threshold was also located on the pre seismic M 7.5 Kuril islands epicentre at this time. Remembering these correlations occurred at the point Bali kicked off, my hypothesis would state ” Bali was triggered by ATB threshold contact with post seismic Vanuatu epicentre, resulting in second stage instigation occurring at the pre seismic Kuril Islands epicentre”. This basically means that these combined contacts, awakened a Russian giant !
On 22nd March at 05:24:02 UTC, an M 5.4 event occurred in Croatia. If you go back to the headers again, select Sun & Moon, and then select Moon Light World Map from the drop down menu, input the time and date in the relevant boxes… and select the green Change Time box.
The map should now be displaying relevant moonrise and moonset locations at the time of this Croatia event. However, this map is actually displaying the boundaries of “moon light”, and not a representation of the moon rising or setting on the horizon. The boundaries represent the moons for-glow and afterglow, which calculates as approximately 4 minutes before or after moonrise / moonset at equatorial latitudes. In this moon map, you should see that the border of lunar afterglow, or SLT as I refer to it (setting lunar threshold) was located on the pre seismic M 7.5 Kuril Islands epicentre. Therefore, my hypothesis would state ” M 5.4 Croatia triggered by SLT contact with 7.5 Kuril Islands epicentre”… Russian giant was hungry after being awakened from his sleep !
One part of my hypothesis that is inconclusive, is that it procures the possibility of specific lunar ephemeral events, up to several days or weeks prior to “selected” seismic occurrence, are responsible for first stage instigation. In this case, the moon selected its target on 15th February. The Ephemeral event I refer to was “Last Quarter” moon phase, which occurred on this day. For the uninitiated, this is when you can see a half moon in the sky at sunrise. I have never found info on when these moon phase events actually begin and end… to the minute. So I resorted to calculating my own lunar ephemeris data using an old 1980’s tool at http://www.fourmilab.ch
On 15th February between times 20:20 UTC – 20:47 UTC, the moon was geocentric on the sunrise threshold… and remained at this position for the duration of this period. The moon kept pace with sunrise until it eventually over took earths rotation. If you input the latter time of 20:47 UTC 15th February in the “sun map” selection boxes (or 20:46 UTC because of odd job problem) the map should show the moon located on the sunrise threshold… and Sunrise occurring on Paramushir Island, Northern Kuril Islands. I have allowed for a 1 – 2 minute margin of error with my calculations, in which case sunrise occurred on the pre seismic 7.5 Kuril Islands epicentre on the last minute of Last Quarter moon phase !
I used several other data sets, along with these correlations, to make final determination before posting my prediction, but these are in graph format, which I can’t post on this site.
On 16th July 2019, an M 4.3 event occurred in the San Francisco Bay area (have a feeling you might have worked this one !). I used it to post my very first volcanic prediction… using the same method as demonstrated. On 20th July, Mt Etna volcano in Sicily erupted, and became my first successful volcano prediction.
I’ll let you source this SF event time to verify it is correct, use the “sun map” and input the data… then workout what San Francisco has to do with Mt Etna volcano ?
Don’t forget to change year in the boxes… and a definite answer on that “crazy” question would be nice 🙂
This post has received 1 vote up.
Score: 1
