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    Posted in: Make A Forecast  
  • 115 pts
    lester
    March 13, 2020 at 12:02 am #6867

    Location: Kushiro Canyon, Off East Coast of Hokkaido … 145’10’E – 42’0’N

    Magnitude: 5.0 – 6.3

    Margin: 300 Radial Kilometres

    Period: From 00:01 UTC March 13, for 20 days

    Ref; 20/1 – 10/2 – 11/3 x 2 ACE

    Thank you

    Score: 0
    115 pts
    lester
    March 28, 2020 at 1:45 am #6952

    More Ref dates to work out !

    Score: 0
    115 pts
    lester
    March 28, 2020 at 12:22 pm #6957

    M 4.9 Hokkaido, originally listed as 5.1 by USGS, but downgraded later to 4.9… they must have been reading my posts again !

    Still listed as 5.1 with EMSC…

    Score: 0
    115 pts
    lester
    April 9, 2020 at 4:15 pm #8650

    Continuing this forecast for 5 days from 16:15 UTC April 9

    I opened the door here !!

    Thank you

    Score: 0
    115 pts
    lester
    April 15, 2020 at 1:43 am #8703

    Continuing this forecast for 3 days from 02:00 UTC April 15

    note – S.C. correlation with 5.3 Argentina !

    Thank you

    Score: 0
    3 pts
    Marco Polo
    April 19, 2020 at 6:20 pm #8734

    Please extend this forecast. Still very much on!

    Score: 0
    15 pts
    Canyonrat
    April 19, 2020 at 7:02 pm #8737

    Under my system, it was a hit!

    M 4.9 – 45km S of Shizunai, Japan 2020-03-28 00:57:52 (UTC) 41.928°N 142.421°E 57.6 km depth

    Add .1 for depth. Each 50km depth adds .1 to strength of magnitude.

    And Marco Polo has a point. That big 6.6 (add depth = 7.5) that struck on April 18 will be roll right along the plate boundary and through your watch zone, between April 19 (today) and the April 26…unless, on an off chance, it jumps over to and runs along the Mendocino trench and rams into Northern California.

    Score: 0
    115 pts
    lester
    April 19, 2020 at 9:03 pm #8738

    Hey Marco, thanks for the prompt. Problem is, I have been analysing data sets today for another experiment, covering the last 10 days of ACE and S.C contacts… and I have not seen anything to suggest Hokkaido is current a front runner. Neither has there been any activity from mid-Atlantic regions to suggest correlation. I always follow the data, and in this case it is not taking me back to Hokkaido just yet. However, this being said, Check Ephemeris for 27. Sun – 20th April 17:46:51 UTC… 35. Sun – 24th April 02:20:57 UTC. I personally don’t think we will see results from these for at least a week. Plus, the M 6.4 off the East coast of Honshu, has probably absorbed all energy in this region.

    Good analysis Mark, but depth to magnitude is something I never consider… always believed it is secondary to finding pre seismic location. When we are able to do that with a high degree of certainty, then depth would be the next challenge, along with timing !

    Thanks guy’s…

    Score: 0
    115 pts
    lester
    April 19, 2020 at 9:46 pm #8739

    22.Moon – 14th April 00:39:03 UTC… On 13th – 14th April between times 17:23:19 UTC – 00:39:03 UTC, the moon reached its furthest southern lateral position for April, at 23’48’S… and remained on this latitude for the duration of this period. At the latter time of 00:39:03 UTC, the SLT threshold was located on coordinates 142’03’E – 38’54’N pre seismic M 6.4 Honshu epicentre.

    This ephemeral period is included in my experiment analysis for 3 different locations… Honshu was not one of them 🙁

    The Sun was located on longitude 130’02’W at the time of this event… Solar Noon in Queen Charlotte region, Canada !

    Score: 0
    15 pts
    Canyonrat
    April 19, 2020 at 10:48 pm #8740

    Observed: M 6.3 – 25km SE of Ofunato, Japan 2020-04-19 20:39:05 (UTC) 38.912°N 141.932°E 38.0 km depth with Moment Tensor data showing 66% of the energy pushing strait off at a perpendicular eastward angle to the plate boundary along with a tad bit of upward energy; which is good news for the people living close to the epicenter. It looks like few felt it and news feeds are quiet! 🙂

    Located 435km/272mls from your center point. It is notable that this struck so quickly after the first 6.6 (7.5) I will classify this as a fast moving seismic wave. It struck about 1328km/825mls form the first deep quake. This 6.3 is too shallow to add anything to the magnitude. The next movement of activity should be somewhere near the Island of Ozero Beloye +/- some distance, unless it sticks and goes off several times in it’s current location.

    KP was ether 1 or zero when this struck, so nothing revealing about that data. I think blot echo was quiet in this area today.

    So you get points for magnitude and time! And points for getting all of us forecaster excited and running to our computers LOL!

    Score: 0
    15 pts
    Canyonrat
    April 19, 2020 at 10:58 pm #8741

    Also just noticed the M 4.0s going off in the same “general” LOL area. They too appear to be fast moving and holding their magnitude strength.

    Score: 0
    115 pts
    lester
    April 23, 2020 at 10:43 pm #8765

    Continuing this forecast for 5 days from 23:00 UTC April 23

    On 20th April between times 17:46:51 UTC – 20:19:10 UTC, the moon reached its furthest distance from earth, for Apogee at 400,081 km’s… and remained at this distance for the duration of this period. At the former time of 17:46:51 UTC, the ATB threshold was located on the coordinates of this forecast. On 23rd April between times 06:00 UTC – 19:27 UTC, ACE was displaying a flat line Phi trace in its data stream during this period. At 19:27 UTC when normal levels resumed, it was sunrise on the coordinates of this forecast.

    I follow the data… when it corresponds to forecast location !

    Thank you

    Score: 0
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