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115 ptslesterMarch 22, 2020 at 1:30 pm #6896
Location: Paramushir Island Region, Northern Kuril Islands … 156’15’E – 50’05’N
Magnitude: 5.5 – 6.8
Margin: 400 Radial Kilometres
Period: From 13:30 UTC March 22, for 7 days
Note – continued inclusion of possible eruptive event from Mt Ebeko Volcano
Ref; 15/2 – 6.3 Bali – 5.4 Croatia
Dedicated to my mum and mother-in-law, on “Mothers Day” (80’s). Flowers are forbidden due to isolation protocol… but I do know they both like a little Rock & Roll 🙂
Thank you
Score: 0115 pts
7 pts115 ptslesterMarch 25, 2020 at 2:22 pm #6916Much appreciated… thanks Fred !
Heads up… 7.5 Kuril Islands event has increased the odds of “significant” seismic activity occurring (6 – 7) in Western US region, during the next 30 – 40 days… so watch your data sets for influential changes. Potential is focused on Parkfield or the Nevada region where Counselor is currently predicting. He may be a veteran of CA hits… but he also has a habit of being a month premature with his forecasts 🙂
Thanks again !
Score: 015 ptsCanyonratMarch 25, 2020 at 8:13 pm #6922lester, well done, location and time. Your 6.8 was a spread up from your 5.5 so your thinking was BIGGER but did you hesitate at calling “7.0”?
Your forecast window is still young. Who knows what tomorrow will bring. 5.5-6.8 Reports of 5.1 and 7.5, just under and just over, about 9% each. Now 4s going off.
Now some of us have been discussing that the USGS can have reporting liberties with quakes, particularly in areas no one feels them, like the ocean bottom. I had a forecast 2 weeks ago for 3.0 activity from the Oakland Airport (San Fransisco Bay Area) down near San Jose along a specific fault. A 2.9 struck the fault just 24 miles north of the airport. Then it got deleted. Only a handful of reports from those that felt it. Some of us are considering the possibility that they (USGS) might not like forecasters because they can not do it or are willing to do it. So they mess with us…maybe, possibly, some thing we need to watch for.
Peace Out,
Mark
Score: 0115 ptslesterMarch 25, 2020 at 11:19 pm #6925Hey Mark, I appreciate the acknowledgement and call back buddy. Yeah I missed out on the big show, but I don’t like to spend a lot on my mother-in-law, so I aimed small !… just kidding 🙂 . I discovered a link several years ago, related to disruptions in global electrical grids prior to significant earthquakes. Nothing that would be noticed during our usual daily routines, or actually observed for that matter. But I constructed a kind of magnetic instrument that reacts differently when there is a slight unbalance in normal current output. And such a reaction was occurring when I rose from bed on Sunday morning (22nd March). I was monitoring online data for about a week prior to this, and it seemed to be focused on Paramushir Island, Northern Kuril Islands. Paramushir Island and the Kamchatka region, are known for being one of the most volcanically active regions on the planet. Volcanoes in the northern region of Kamchatka are as predictable as a 2+ in Hawaii… you only have to blow on them, and they start erupting. A volcano on Paramushir Island called Mt Ebeko, also experiences frequent eruptions, but not as frequent as its northern cousins. The data I was monitoring kept hitting Mt Ebeko, so I posted a forecast accordingly. However, the data started getting “more” significant, and past experience has taught me that this was a bit heavy for a volcano… so, I decided to cover both options with a seismic forecast. Meanwhile, strong atmospheric electric data was guiding me to the Andaman Islands region (going off the chart kind of strong !). I weighed up magnetic reactions, atmospheric data and recent activity from west Java, west coast Sumatra, up to the Nicobar region… and made the wrong assumption that a 7+ event at Andaman was a possibility. A bad call this time I’m afraid, but like I mentioned to “Pi Seas” earlier this week; even with failed attempts, you always learn something new. I’ve learned that next year I will be a little more prepared… and buy flowers for my mother-in-law, instead of dedications 🙂
I hear what your saying about USGS, and I have seen cases were events have been deleted, or not posted at all ( as per EMSC). But USGS is a big player, and you probably know yourself, chasing quakes is a lonely interest… especially when the rest of your buddies are heavy into football or some such sport. Which means on a global scale, there can’t be many of us doing this. Plus we all work many different theories, with several being unrelated to actual seismology. As you say though, worth keeping an eye on, but personally I think any annoyance to them from our small minority, would be like a flee on a dogs back… a bit of an itch, quick scratch and then they move on. It would be unprofessional, and reckless of them to alter or deny accurate seismic data to the public, especially if they have a website for this very reason. In the pursuit of an answer to the earthquake problem, they are equals to ourselves… only, they have got all the seismic toys. They can’t predict earthquakes, and neither can we. Granted, we hit them now and then, but it will only be when we can hit all of them that the problem will be solved. It should be all hands on deck for anybody with a little knowledge in this field. And if the assumption is that they can’t stand an occasional little bit from the likes of us… then that’s their loss !
Sorry for cutting into your forecast thread, didn’t realise you was on a continuous roll… hated that when its happened to me. I’m more of a physics kind of guy than seismology, but your scripts are very informative, kind of like a soap opera… your left wanting to see what happens in the next episode 🙂 Think I will be heading towards Parkfield in the coming month, be interesting if we meet there because it would be like finding two pieces of the puzzle, that actually fit together !!
A man that builds “safe” houses, then spends his time trying to find an answer, for the reason why he has to build “safe” Houses… that truly is big hearted !!
Score: 0115 pts15 ptsCanyonratMarch 26, 2020 at 1:12 am #6927lester, if you mean you will actually be in Parkfield CA, I can drive down. I’ve heard it call its self “Earthquake Capital of the Universe…world”. LOL Looks like today they had a pile up of small quakes about 20 miles/33 KM NNE. That area tends to get small quakes all the time.
Us yanks celebrate Mother’s Day on May 10, 2020, so there could be a second chance…
I do have a question about your forecast: “Ref; 15/2 – 6.3 Bali – 5.4 Croatia” how do I interpret this? I under stand the “6.3” part, but the “15/2” and I looked at some of your past forecasts and the “ref” had other notations I could not figure out.
As for power grids, my step dad is/was (semi-retired) a project manager for construction companies that build power plants. He’s done 2 nukes, 2 solar (you’ve seen them on TV), a few coal, and many many natural gas. In the early 2000 he worked for CalPine Corp. and he and his boss were overseeing $3-7 billion in construction of power plants. He can have some useful information at times. I’ve carefully asked questions about, if the power plants could withstand a solar flair, without mentioning micro-nova. He basically said there is no energy that can flow back into a power plant and damage it. They have redundancies and auto shut down should a DC current flow up an AC line or an ac surge flow up the line. I can in the months to come ask him about some of the monitors they use and what they detect.
I’m going to develop a forecast lay out that puts the forecast first and try to make it look like other’s on this board and then have my narrative below. The narrative helps me think and put down on paper for memory and also it makes for easy reading for friends and family. I hope to become accurate enough to forecast and alert others for 4.5-6.5 energy on a public plateform, like newspaper and TV evening news. At that range people can prepare for: put good china in box on floor, by extra beer and ice, load ice-chest with BBQ stuff for dinner… LOL When 7+ hits, you really need air bags installed in your walls. It can be as powerful as a bad car accident. Like in business and insurance, you try to spread the risk. If I see the potential for big energy, I’d like to consult and even use others forecasts (with credit given) to back up my communication of “OMG HOLD ON!” LOL We do that in construction. If a house we are working on has a bad roof that needs new shingles and is complex in design, we hire a roofing contractor to do it. That way if there is a leak, we are not standing there looking stupid, we grab the roofer and place them between us and the angry client. LOL To fix it. And as you see, I try to make communication fun.
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2 ptsPi_SeasMarch 26, 2020 at 5:14 am #6929Congratulations on the M 7.5 off the SE coast of Russia in the NNW Pacific, Lester!
I think my Petrolia CA forecast is brewing but we’ll know within 24 hours it seems like 🙂Also: Canyonrat, in WA state quakes under M 3.9 are deleted by usgs so often I’ll have to track and record them myself. Their habit of deleting quakes is worrisome since it defeats tracking efforts and funding like the newly placed magnetometers by UW and UofO unless everyone tracks independently without communicating which defeats the purpose of having a community dashboard, or makes it necessary for someone to recreate the wheel by making their own community dashboard so people have to check more than one to get all the updated information which is strange kind of like how the fire departments don’t communicate with local police during emergencies and disaster events when coordinating efforts would be the smartest it seems.
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Pi_Seas.
115 ptslesterApril 1, 2020 at 6:39 pm #6980Adjustment to forecast…
resetting magnitude range as 5.0 – 6.3
Continuing this forecast for 5 days from 19:00 UTC April 1
Note – data continuing to focus on this region since 25th March. Could signify residual energy, belated aftershock, or anticipated volcanic activity from Mt Ebeko volcano !
Thank you
Score: 0115 ptslesterApril 2, 2020 at 1:10 am #6983Mt Ebeko Volcano finally erupted at 23:00 UTC 1st April… this one certainly gave me a run for my money !
http://www.volcanodiscovery.com
Score: 0115 pts115 ptslesterApril 5, 2020 at 2:14 am #8606Hey Mark, I followed your instructions again and retrieved my kuril islands forecast. It really is a neat trick and wish I new techy stuff like this, but age always catches you, and its always harder to try new things. I am again impressed with your “Inland Southern California” forecast, and you “do note” that I am continuing to be considerate and not interrupting your thread.
Do you know something, and this will really make you laugh. I sent an email to Ben this morning (my time) expressing my concern that you may have gone “missing in action”, because we were having a little bit of a “volcano” issue, and I was feeling terrible, that I may have discouraged you… old timers easily get overcome with emotion and confusion like that. I’m really glad this is not the case, but this is were the confusion bit comes in. I keep asking as politely as I can, if you would either tend to your claim that I posted a non credible “successful proclamation”, regarding Mt Ebeko volcano, and discuss inaccuracies that you believe I submitted. Or hold your hand up, my bad, jumped the gun a bit there without thinking… and then we can move on.
Since the site started, there have been many arguments, disagreements, and dare I say it, the F word has been unprecedently used occasionally. But this has always been within the confines of the forecast board or chat room. Successful proclamations is our place where we hold our own personal records of achievement. A testament to our efforts over days or even weeks of compiling data. And then we eagerly await management (Ben) to asses our contributions, and therefore credit or reject the result we post. It is kinda customary and polite to endorse good results by commending recipient of success with gestures of congratulations. I always do this because I know that a kind acknowledgement goes a long way. Makes others feel like the effort was worth it… a well done, and you get some brownie points. But I don’t recall, and I am sure my fellow forecasters don’t recall, when a Successful proclamation has been discredited by “another forecaster”… especially in this place that makes us feel good on a bad day.
Please try to be considerate and understand that I will no longer be able to post in proclamations until this matter of Mt Ebeko volcano is resolved. It is a matter of principle and therefor I will be unable to post further forecasts. As you get older, there are so few good things in your life, this is one of my passions, it keeps me busy and I use it as escapism from bad situations… especially now that I am trapped at home, due to this evil virus. I try to make other efforts when I convers with others here, make a little light banter with humour. Occasionally make an effort by adding a little US lingo, to try and mix in as one of the guys. Especially as most members here are West Coasters, and can’t speak proper English lol. So this is what I do, and you have shown in such a short time, that you have a lot to offer here… and a method that has direction. I have always been principled in the fact that the science “must” come first if it works… everything else is secondary to something that could eventually save lives. You are on a good course here, as long as you stay your course. Engaging with others is part of why we are here, and opinions are always welcome. But your wording could easily be misinterpreted as conveying borderline belittlements, invoking alternative thinking, and then taking ground that was already established as a prediction… we are not in competition with each other here. . Everybody uses different methods, but I am sure they as keen as I am to see were you go with this. I have not promoted my method too you, mealy given you the option to enquire if you so wished… I believe results should do the talking for you. As I mentioned before, I’m not a West Coaster, I live in Northwest England on the edge of the Yorkshire moors. I do not live with the constant threat of earthquakes like you do, and I have only experienced one in my own country. But I lost close relatives to an earthquake many years ago, and that’s one of the reasons why I am on this playing field with you guys. I have had it pointed out to me many times in the past, that my method of prediction is unconventional… and therefore I am a “left fielder” lol.
Good things happen here, and I was really exited for you when you got that “direct hit” in Syria. I like writing and predicting, and if I can’t do one, then I will have to put more effort into doing the other !!
Thank you Mark… and well done again with your first success on Quake Watch !
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