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115 ptslesterNovember 30, 2019 at 9:45 pm #6655
On the 28th Nov, I posted a calculation in my SF forecast, relating to the lateral coordinates of the sun and moon on 27th Nov. The calculation stated that between times 16:03:25 UTC – 16:13:44 UTC 27th Nov, the sun and moon shared the same lateral coordinate of 21’09’S for the duration of this period… therefore, a kind of solar / lunar alignment with respect to terrestrial coordinates. In this case, the former time alignment coincided with moonrise in the San Francisco Bay Area.
The next solar / lunar alignment occurs on 1st Dec, between times 00:10:11 UTC – 00:23:21 UTC. The sun and moon will again share the same lateral position, on coordinate of 21’43’S for the duration of this period. Now what makes this alignment different, is the fact that the moon will not only be sharing the same latitude as the sun, but this will also be its furthest South position for this month (Nov)… kind of a double up scenario so to speak. I don’t know when the last or next scenario of this nature occurred or will occur, but I could imagine it being very labour intensive calculating an answer. I had this alignment calculation at hand when I posted the SF correlation, but I saw nothing of correlating relevance on my model. The only contacts I noticed, related to the latter time of 00:23:21 UTC… it will be sunset on the post seismic M 5.6 Scotia Sea epicentre of 28th Nov, and the ATE will be located on Mt Sangay volcano in Ecuador. Mount Sangay volcano is an active volcano, and has been in a state of unrest for several week. The volcano discovery website, reports volcanic ash emissions emanating from Sangay, on a frequent basis. But this doesn’t mean it is going to erupt (meaning explosive eruption)… because there are many volcanoes around the world that produce ash emissions just as frequently. However, it is also interesting to note, when the M 5.6 Scotia Sea event occurred at 00:26:29 UTC 28th Nov, the SLT was located on Mt Sangay volcano. Later on this day at 22:00 UTC, the VAAC in Washington reported satellite imagery indicated that a new eruptive phase may have begun.
Why I have singled out Mt Sangay in this case, is because reanalysis my successful eruption predictions for Mt Etna and Mt Stromboli… has concluded that these events occurred due to circumstance, and not duration of time. Multiple solar / lunar threshold contacts on a specific location, over an unspecified period, has “sometimes” resulted in a successful seismic forecast. And I occasionally use the analogy of a saucepan of milk coming to the boil, as comparison to the build up of energy ( or stress if you prefer), associated with a pre seismic location before occurrence. The analogy makes the assumption that it is possible to calculate when the gas was lit, but without knowing the volume of the saucepan, or the quantity of milk within… it is not possible to determine when the milk will boil over the rim. I have tried to use my “time duration” theory on several volcanoes recently, and so far this has producing a negative result. However, if I refer back to my saucepan of milk again, and compare this to a restless volcano… there should be no need to determine when the gas was lit, because the milk is already “simmering”. Therefore, a particular set of circumstances, possibly like the one described above, may be all that is needed to apply the extra heat required to produce an eruption. If this turns out not to be the case when the date of expiry for this forecast is reached… then I will submit that, there was nothing worth watching on TV this evening… and I had fun speculating 🙂 .
Prediction for an eruptive event from Mt Sangay Volcano in Ecuador
Commencing 22:00 UTC November 30, for 10 days
Thank you
Score: 0115 pts115 pts115 ptslesterDecember 3, 2019 at 1:57 pm #6666At 06:19 UTC today (3rd Dec), an explosive event occurred at Mt Sakurajima volcano in Kyushu, Japan. At 2 hours and 27 minutes later, an M 6.0 event occurred off the coast of Arica, Chile on coordinates 70’39’W – 18’33’S (USGS)… could these two events be related ?
In my opening post of this thread, I described calculation for the sun and moon sharing the same lateral coordinate of 21’43’S on 1st December. Duration of this mutual position occurred between times 00:10:11 UTC – 00:23:21 UTC. Theory was that the ATE threshold on Mt Sangay volcano at 00:24 UTC, may instigate an eruptive event in the near future. However, I have noted from the occurrence of the M 6.0 Chile event, the ATE threshold was also located on coordinates 70’39’W – 18’33’S on 1st Dec at 00:24 UTC !. So the most likely outcome is that the double up moon scenario of 1st Dec, correlated to the Chile event of today… and I am therefore doubtful that this forecast will produce a result !
The M 6.0 Arica, Chile event occurred at 08:46:36 UTC. If we look back exactly 12 hours in time to 20:47 UTC 2nd Dec, it was moonset on coordinates 19’33’E – 41’31’N (USGS). These are the epicentre coordinates for the M 6.4 Albania event, which occurred on 26th Nov… a coincidence perhaps !. The moon was located on longitude 130’49’E when this Chile event occurred. Mt Sakurajima volcano resides on longitude 130’39’E, so the moon was 10 arcminutes from meridian point with Sakurajima, or 10 seconds of Earth rotation. Looking at Mt Sakurajima in the same context as the M 6.4 Albania location, the ATB threshold was located on Mt Sakurajima volcano at 20:34 UTC 2nd Dec. Moving exactly 12 hours ahead to 08:34 UTC 3rd Dec, the ATB threshold was then located on the pre seismic (-13 mins) M 6.0 Arica, Chile epicentre… perhaps another coincidence !
Hmmm… maybe I’m on to something !!
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