M 4.1 to 5.1 Northern California, 2020-05-13 to 2020-05-25

[Karma: 15 pts]

Canyonrat

May 12, 2020 at 6:39 pm #8817

Forecast: M 4.1 to 5.1 Northern California, 2020-05-13 to 2020-05-25, 41°23’48.70″N 121°59’22.07″W 242km/150mls radius.

Observed:

M 4.7 – 127km S of Port Hardy, Canada 2020-05-10 04:46:01 (UTC) 49.559°N 127.626°W 10.0 km depth.

M 4.5 – 17km SE of Ocotillo Wells, CA 2020-05-10 22:07:40 (UTC) 33.018°N 116.020°W 10.2 km depth

Comments: I keep looking at this area between Mount Shasta and Mount Lassen. With the odd 4.9 Canadian quake https://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/earthquake.php?id=854598 and all the volcanic activity on the western side of the Pacific, I am thinking we will have activity in a semi-active volcanic region on the Eastern side of the Pacific. I had a prior watch for this area for M 7.0 to 8.0 2020-04-14 to 2020-04-28, and that forecast was based on a new circle technique I am experimenting with.

Score: 0

[Karma: 15 pts]

Canyonrat

May 14, 2020 at 6:53 pm #8830

We had a small shallow quake at the base of an old unmarked shield volcano named Mount Plumas. Plumas is 7200ft at it’s peak and the quake occurred near it’s base at 4100ft and just 10km/6mls from the peak. This quake struck 201km/125mls south of my center point. The area has only had a handful of quakes in many decades. Watch continues.

Observed: M 1.1 – 9km ESE of East Quincy, California 2020-05-14 12:49:16 (UTC) 39.910°N 120.795°W 8.7 km depth.

Score: 0

[Karma: 15 pts]

Canyonrat

May 15, 2020 at 11:54 pm #8850

Observed: M 3.2 – 3km ENE of East Quincy, CA 2020-05-15 21:47:23 (UTC) 39.942°N 120.866°W -1.5 km depth. Rare sky quake, LOL. For those observers peaking about, a negative depth quake indicates it likely struck up and inside a mountain, and if you think Volcano it become more clear.

This quake was very close to te other observed quake posted just above.

I am considering moving my center point to Mount Plumas and increasing my strength range to 5.1 to 6.1, but I am going to hold steady and “sleep on it”.

Score: 0

[Karma: 15 pts]

Canyonrat

May 18, 2020 at 4:35 pm #8874

I am still considering a change to my forecast.

Observed: M 5.5 – 252km W of Ferndale, California 2020-05-18 07:02:34 (UTC) 40.828°N 127.230°W 10.0 km depth. A review of the moment tensor graph shows it to be an up thrust event.

I have a general watch and (am hunting for an unreported) quake in the middle of the North Pacific between latitudes 35N and 45N. What is interesting is this M5.5 is on latitude 40.8N and the Quincy quake is on latitude 39.9N.

Score: 0

[Karma: 15 pts]

Canyonrat

May 19, 2020 at 8:01 pm #8886

I’m going to make a second forecast/watch near Ferndale California where Counselor has a watch, but keep this current watch. My reasoning is I see these two areas of risk but with different data that I am using.

Score: 0

[Karma: 15 pts]

Canyonrat

May 21, 2020 at 8:54 pm #8895

Observed: 4.2 that struck today I think is just barely inside my circle. M 4.2 – 28km WNW of Petrolia, CA 2020-05-19 15:58:31 (UTC) 40.454°N 124.562°W 23.6 km depth.

I need to check the distance closely from my center point, but it might meet my criteria for success IF I find an old volcano near by.

Also this 4.2 has a moment tensor showing near equal energy both north and south.

I too might make a forecast for the North Bay area San Francisco. Mid 3ish to mid 4ish. Dutch also has a warning for 5.0 activity Napa California.

Score: 0

[Karma: 15 pts]

Canyonrat

June 29, 2020 at 2:22 am #9141

Observed: 4.2 that struck today I think is just barely inside my circle. M 4.2 – 28km WNW of Petrolia, CA 2020-05-19 15:58:31 (UTC) 40.454°N 124.562°W 23.6 km depth.

This was in my large watch area at less then 240km with my radius at 242km, but not a success because I was really looking to the north. This was a random event.

Score: 0