M 4.1 to M 5.3 Garlock Fault area 2021-04-01 to 2021-04-06

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Canyonrat

April 1, 2021 at 9:01 pm #10415

West Coast North America FINALLY has some interesting activity (upper low end quakes). With nine 3.9 to 4.8 quakes in one week. So now there is stuff to forecast from. The open silent zone Garlock Fault should see a M 4.1 to M 5.3 in the next 5 days. I know it is a tight time window, but that is what I see. The Garlock Fault runs from about Ridge Crest California (site of the M 7.2 18 months ago) south west toward Santa Barbara California. My thoughts are that it will be close to this fault or right on it (50 miles either side of fault). I don’t see it being bigger then 5.3 and I normally do a M 1 range, but just in case in comes in bigger I am adding M .2 to the upper end.

My other thoughts.

When the M 4.1 – off the coast of Oregon 2021-03-26 00:36:48 (UTC) 43.515°N 130.168°W 10.0 km depth

and

Then the M 4.1 – 88km W of Petrolia, CA 2021-03-28 00:19:26 (UTC) 40.364°N 125.317°W 9.7 km depth
struck I noticed with in two or three days a spread of quakes “wash” out word east bound in a semi circle.

So I think this is all the same energy. So I expect my forecast will be sooner then later and closer to Ridge Crest end of the fault.

Also we could be in a pattern of “waves” of quakes rolling through and in 180 degree arcs. All eyes open to observe for this.

Peace out, Mark

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[Karma: 15 pts]

Canyonrat

April 2, 2021 at 5:12 pm #10419

This morning Ben (Suspisious0bservers) mentioned the quake activity in California. He too is considering what we are seeing that it could be for-shocks.

Well, this morning we continue rocking and rolling! I will say my strongest part of forecasting is location (often with in 50 miles of center point) and time window, and magnitude strength just eludes me.

So here is the first quake, 7 miles east of Ridgecrest and 12 miles north of Garlock Fault.

The other two are off shore at the south end of the Jaun de Fuca.

Observed:

M 2.4 – 13km ENE of Ridgecrest, California 2021-03-31 03:39:09 (UTC) 35.673°N 117.546°W 3.6 km depth

Juan de Fuca

M 4.6 – 153 km W of Shelter Cove, California 2021-04-02 08:21:18 (UTC) 39.828°N 125.852°W 8.0 km depth

M 4.4 – 27km W of Petrolia, California 2021-04-02 08:21:35 (UTC) 40.303°N 124.600°W 18.7 km depth

Thoughts:

I look at the San Francisco Bay Area IF the Geysers meet the criteria of less then 10 quakes in 24hrs or more them 40 quakes in 24hrs. Then I take the strongest quake at the Geysers and at M 1.5 to it for a forecast.
So we have four quakes at the Geysers and the strongest is M 2.3. So I will be looking for a M 3.8 in the East side of the Bay Area. Too small for an official forecast. So I keep observing.

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